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Learning to Live in a Liquidity Trap

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  • Jasmina Arifovic
  • Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé
  • Martín Uribe

Abstract

The Taylor rule in combination with the zero lower bound on nominal rates has been shown to create an unintended liquidity-trap equilibrium. The relevance of this equilibrium has been challenged on the basis that it is not stable under least-square learning. In this paper, we show that the liquidity-trap equilibrium is stable under social learning. The learning mechanism we employ includes three realistic elements: mutation, crossover, and tournaments. We show that agents can learn to have pessimistic sentiments about the central bank's ability to generate price growth, giving rise to a stochastically stable environment characterized by deflation and stagnation.

Suggested Citation

  • Jasmina Arifovic & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2017. "Learning to Live in a Liquidity Trap," NBER Working Papers 23725, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23725
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    1. Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2001. "The Perils of Taylor Rules," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 96(1-2), pages 40-69, January.
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    7. Lux, Thomas & Schornstein, Sascha, 2005. "Genetic learning as an explanation of stylized facts of foreign exchange markets," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 169-196, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Athanasios Geromichalos & Lucas Herrenbrueck, 2022. "The Liquidity-Augmented Model of Macroeconomic Aggregates: A New Monetarist DSGE Approach," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 45, pages 134-167, July.
    2. He Nie & Jordan Roulleau-Pasdeloup, 2023. "The promises (and perils) of control-contingent forward guidance," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 49, pages 77-98, July.
    3. Robert Kollmann, 2021. "Effects of Covid-19 on Euro area GDP and inflation: demand vs. supply disturbances," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 475-492, July.
    4. Lucio Gobbi & Ronny Mazzocchi & Roberto Tamborini, 2022. "Monetary policy, rational confidence, and Neo‐Fisherian depressions," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(4), pages 1179-1199, November.
    5. Robert Kollmann, 2021. "Liquidity traps in a monetary union," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(4), pages 1581-1603.
    6. Evans, George & Gibbs, Christopher & McGough, Bruce, 2021. "A Unified Model of Learning to Forecast," Working Papers 2021-10, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    7. Kollmann, Robert, 2021. "Liquidity traps in a world economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    8. Jarociński, Marek & Maćkowiak, Bartosz, 2018. "Monetary-fiscal interactions and the euro area's malaise," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 251-266.
    9. Hommes, Cars, 2018. "Behavioral & experimental macroeconomics and policy analysis: a complex systems approach," Working Paper Series 2201, European Central Bank.
    10. Gilles Dufrénot & Meryem Rhouzlane, 2018. "Secular Stagnation: New Challenges for the Industrialized Countries in the 21st Century," Working Papers halshs-01821669, HAL.
    11. Petersen, Luba & Rholes, Ryan, 2022. "Macroeconomic expectations, central bank communication, and background uncertainty: A COVID-19 laboratory experiment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    12. Chattopadhyay, Siddhartha & Ghosh, Taniya, 2020. "Taylor Rule implementation of the optimal policy at the zero lower bound: Does the cost channel matter?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 351-366.
    13. Brendon, Charles & Paustian, Matthias & Yates, Tony, 2020. "Self-fulfilling recessions at the zero lower bound," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 213-232.
    14. Gobbi, Lucio & Mazzocchi, Ronny & Tamborini, Roberto, 2019. "Monetary policy, de-anchoring of inflation expectations, and the “new normal”," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-1.
    15. Lansing, Kevin J., 2021. "Endogenous forecast switching near the zero lower bound," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 153-169.
    16. Maksim Isakin & Phuong V. Ngo, 2022. "Multiplicity in New Keynesian Models," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 505-521, July.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E03 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Macroeconomics
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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