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Managing Heterogeneous and Unanchored Expectations: A Monetary Policy Analysis

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  • Hommes, C.H.

    (University of Amsterdam)

  • Lustenhouwer, J.

    (University of Amsterdam)

Abstract

We study monetary policy in a New Keynesian model with heterogeneity in expectations. Agents may choose from a continuum of forecasting rules and adjust their expectations based on relative past performance. The extent to which expectations are anchored to the fundamentals of the economy turns out to be crucial in determining whether the central bank (CB) can stabilize the economy. When expectations are strongly anchored, little is required of the CB for local stability. Only when expectations are unanchored, the Taylor principle becomes a necessary condition. More aggressive policy may however be required to prevent coordination on almost self-fulfilling optimism or pessimism. When the zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate (ZLB) is accounted for, the inflation target must furthermore be high enough, in order to prevent coordination on self-fulfilling liquidity traps and deflationary spirals.

Suggested Citation

  • Hommes, C.H. & Lustenhouwer, J., 2016. "Managing Heterogeneous and Unanchored Expectations: A Monetary Policy Analysis," CeNDEF Working Papers 16-01, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  • Handle: RePEc:ams:ndfwpp:16-01
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Paul De Grauwe & Yuemei Ji, 2019. "Inflation Targets and the Zero Lower Bound in a Behavioural Macroeconomic Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 86(342), pages 262-299, April.
    2. Paul De Grauwe & Yuemei Ji, 2017. "The International Synchronisation of Business Cycles: the Role of Animal Spirits," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 383-412, July.
    3. Yuemei Ji, 2018. "Why is there so much Inertia in Inflation and Output? A Behavioral Explanation," CESifo Working Paper Series 7181, CESifo.
    4. Anna Agliari & Domenico Massaro & Nicolò Pecora & Alessandro Spelta, 2017. "Inflation Targeting, Recursive Inattentiveness, and Heterogeneous Beliefs," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(7), pages 1587-1619, October.
    5. Paul Grauwe & Yuemei Ji, 2018. "Behavioural Economics is Useful Also in Macroeconomics: The Role of Animal Spirits," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 60(2), pages 203-216, June.
    6. De Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei, 2020. "Structural reforms, animal spirits, and monetary policies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    7. De Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei, 2017. "Structural Reforms and Monetary Policies in a Behavioural Macroeconomic Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 12336, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. De Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei, 2017. "Endogenous Asymmetric Shocks in the Eurozone. The Role of Animal Spirits," CEPR Discussion Papers 11887, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Paul De Grauwe & Yuemei Ji, 2017. "Analyzing Structural Reforms Using a Behavioral Macroeconomic Model," CESifo Working Paper Series 6518, CESifo.
    10. De Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei & Foresti, Pasquale, 2019. "Fiscal Policies in Booms and Busts," CEPR Discussion Papers 13740, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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