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Managing unanchored, heterogeneous expectations and liquidity traps

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  • Hommes, Cars H.
  • Lustenhouwer, Joep

Abstract

We study the possibility of (almost) self-fulfilling waves of pessimism and selfreinforcing liquidity traps in a New Keynesian model with heterogeneous expectations. We explicitly focus on the "anchoring" of expectations that is modeled as the range of deviations from the central bank targets (and from the rational expectation equilibrium) that agents are willing to consider. We find that when the zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate is not binding, aggressive monetary policy can prevent waves of pessimism and exclude near unit root dynamics, even when expectations are unanchored. However, as shocks bring the economy to a situation with a binding zero lower bound, there is a danger of a long lasting self-reinforcing liquidity trap that arises because of the existence of multiple steady states. It turns out that in a model where the anchoring of expectations evolves endogenously, the anchoring of expectations at the time the bad shocks hit is crucial in determining whether the economy can recover from the liquidity trap. Furthermore, a higher inflation target reduces the probability that self-reinforcing liquidity traps arise.

Suggested Citation

  • Hommes, Cars H. & Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2017. "Managing unanchored, heterogeneous expectations and liquidity traps," BERG Working Paper Series 131, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bamber:131
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    Cited by:

    1. March, Christoph & Sahm, Marco, 2019. "The perks of being in the smaller team: Incentives in overlapping contests," BERG Working Paper Series 155, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    2. Mundt, Philipp & Alfarano, Simone & Milaković, Mishael, 2020. "Survival and the ergodicity of corporate profitability," BERG Working Paper Series 162, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    3. Arata, Yoshiyuki & Mundt, Philipp, 2019. "Topology and formation of production input interlinkages: Evidence from Japanese microdata," BERG Working Paper Series 152, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    4. Martin Carolin & Westerhoff Frank, 2019. "Regulating Speculative Housing Markets via Public Housing Construction Programs: Insights from a Heterogeneous Agent Model," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 239(4), pages 627-660, August.
    5. Proaño, Christian R. & Lojak, Benjamin, 2020. "Animal spirits, risk premia and monetary policy at the zero lower bound," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 221-233.
    6. Hommes, Cars & Lustenhouwer, Joep & Mavromatis, Kostas, 2018. "Fiscal consolidations and heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 173-205.
    7. Roberto Dieci & Noemi Schmitt & Frank Westerhoff, 2018. "Steady states, stability and bifurcations in multi-asset market models," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 41(2), pages 357-378, November.
    8. Donato Masciandaro, 2021. "Central Bank Governance in Monetary Policy Economics (1981-2020)," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 21153, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    9. Hommes, Cars, 2018. "Behavioral & experimental macroeconomics and policy analysis: a complex systems approach," Working Paper Series 2201, European Central Bank.
    10. Mundt, Philipp & Oh, Ilfan, 2019. "Asymmetric competition, risk, and return distribution," BERG Working Paper Series 145, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    11. Cavalli, Fausto & Naimzada, Ahmad & Pecora, Nicolò & Pireddu, Marina, 2018. "Market sentiment and heterogeneous fundamentalists in an evolutive financial market mode," MPRA Paper 90289, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    Keywords

    Interest Rate Rules; Liquidity Traps; Heterogeneous Expectations; Bounded Rationality; Multiple Steady States;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium

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