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Market entry waves and volatility outbursts in stock markets

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  • Blaurock, Ivonne
  • Schmitt, Noemi
  • Westerhoff, Frank

Abstract

We develop a simple agent-based financial market model in which speculators' market entry decisions are subject to herding behavior and market risk. Moreover, speculators' orders depend on price trends, market misalignments and fundamental news. Using a mix of analytical and numerical tools, we show that a herding-induced market entry wave may amplify excess demand, triggering lasting volatility outbursts. Eventually, however, higher stock market risk reduces stock market participation and volatility decreases again. Simulations furthermore reveal that our approach is also able to produce bubbles and crashes, excess volatility, fat-tailed return distributions and serially uncorrelated price changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Blaurock, Ivonne & Schmitt, Noemi & Westerhoff, Frank, 2017. "Market entry waves and volatility outbursts in stock markets," BERG Working Paper Series 128, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bamber:128
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    5. Agliari, Anna & Naimzada, Ahmad & Pecora, Nicolò, 2018. "Boom-bust dynamics in a stock market participation model with heterogeneous traders," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 458-468.
    6. Christian R. Proaño & Benjamin Lojak, 2019. "Animal spirits, risk premia and monetary policy at the zero lower bound," CAMA Working Papers 2019-73, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    7. Roberto Dieci & Noemi Schmitt & Frank Westerhoff, 2018. "Steady states, stability and bifurcations in multi-asset market models," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 41(2), pages 357-378, November.
    8. Hommes, Cars & Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2019. "Managing unanchored, heterogeneous expectations and liquidity traps," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 1-16.
    9. Lustenhouwer, Joep & Mavromatis, Kostas, 2017. "Fiscal consolidations and finite planning horizons," BERG Working Paper Series 130, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    10. Schmitt, Noemi & Schwartz, Ivonne & Westerhoff, Frank H., 2020. "Heterogeneous speculators and stock market dynamics: A simple agent-based computational model," BERG Working Paper Series 160, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    stock markets; heterogeneous speculators; exponential replicator dynamics; herding behavior; stylized facts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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