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Belief-driven dynamics in a behavioral SEIRD macroeconomic model with sceptics

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  • Proaño, Christian R.
  • Kukacka, Jiri
  • Makarewicz, Tomasz

Abstract

The reluctance of a non-trivial fraction of the population to adhere to social distancing measures – and even to get vaccinated – during the COVID-19 pandemic represented a challenge for imposed public health policies in many countries around the world. Against this background we study the impact of boundedly rational perceptions for the dynamics of epidemics such as the COVID-19 pandemic in a standard epidemic model extended by a stylized macroeconomic dimension similar to Atkeson et al. (2021). We illustrate through which channels misperceptions or even “scepticism” concerning the infectiousness of the disease or its mortality rate may undermine the effectiveness of lockdowns and other public health policies in the long-run.

Suggested Citation

  • Proaño, Christian R. & Kukacka, Jiri & Makarewicz, Tomasz, 2024. "Belief-driven dynamics in a behavioral SEIRD macroeconomic model with sceptics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 217(C), pages 312-333.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:217:y:2024:i:c:p:312-333
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2023.11.011
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    1. Patrick Mellacher, 2022. "Endogenous viral mutations, evolutionary selection, and containment policy design," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 17(3), pages 801-825, July.
    2. Patrick Mellacher & Simon Plakolb, 2025. "Global Inequality in Vaccine Access, Mortality and Economy: An Agent-based Exploration," Graz Economics Papers 2025-12, University of Graz, Department of Economics.
    3. Mellacher, Patrick, 2023. "The impact of corona populism: Empirical evidence from Austria and theory," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 113-140.
    4. Di Guilmi, Corrado & Galanis, Giorgos & Proaño, Christian R., 2023. "A Baseline Model of Behavioral Political Cycles and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 50-67.
    5. Eniro Asemota & Patrick Mellacher & Stefania Rossi, 2025. "Covid-19 and Right-wing Vote Share: Evidence from the European Elections in Austria, Italy, and Sweden," Graz Economics Papers 2025-10, University of Graz, Department of Economics.

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    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E7 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics
    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health

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