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Belief-driven dynamics in a behavioral SEIRD macroeconomic model with sceptics

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  • Proaño, Christian R.
  • Kukacka, Jiri
  • Makarewicz, Tomasz

Abstract

The reluctance of a non-trivial fraction of the population to adhere to social distancing measures – and even to get vaccinated – during the COVID-19 pandemic represented a challenge for imposed public health policies in many countries around the world. Against this background we study the impact of boundedly rational perceptions for the dynamics of epidemics such as the COVID-19 pandemic in a standard epidemic model extended by a stylized macroeconomic dimension similar to Atkeson et al. (2021). We illustrate through which channels misperceptions or even “scepticism” concerning the infectiousness of the disease or its mortality rate may undermine the effectiveness of lockdowns and other public health policies in the long-run.

Suggested Citation

  • Proaño, Christian R. & Kukacka, Jiri & Makarewicz, Tomasz, 2024. "Belief-driven dynamics in a behavioral SEIRD macroeconomic model with sceptics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 217(C), pages 312-333.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:217:y:2024:i:c:p:312-333
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2023.11.011
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Endogenous cycles; COVID-19 pandemic; Bounded rationality; Heterogenous expectations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E7 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics
    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health

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