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Managing Self-organization of Expectations through Monetary Policy: a Macro Experiment

Author

Listed:
  • Tiziana Assenza

    (TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - Comue de Toulouse - Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • P. Heemeijer
  • C.H. Hommes
  • D. Massaro

Abstract

The New Keynesian theory of inflation determination is tested in this paper by means of laboratory experiments. We find that the Taylor principle is a necessary condition to ensure convergence to the inflation target, but it is not sufficient. Using a behavioral model of expectation formation, we show how heterogeneous expectations tend to self-organize on different forecasting strategies depending on monetary policy. Finally, we link the central bank's ability to control inflation to the impact that monetary policy has on the type of feedback –positive or negative– between expectations and realizations of aggregate variables and in turn on the composition of subjects with respect to the type of forecasting rules they use.

Suggested Citation

  • Tiziana Assenza & P. Heemeijer & C.H. Hommes & D. Massaro, 2021. "Managing Self-organization of Expectations through Monetary Policy: a Macro Experiment," Post-Print hal-03176273, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03176273
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2019.12.005
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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