IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/7392.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Dynamic Trading with Predictable Returns and Transaction Costs

Author

Listed:
  • Pedersen, Lasse Heje
  • Garleanu, Nicolae Bogdan

Abstract

This paper derives in closed form the optimal dynamic portfolio policy when trading is costly and security returns are predictable by signals with different mean-reversion speeds. The optimal updated portfolio is a linear combination of the existing portfolio, the optimal portfolio absent trading costs, and the optimal portfolio based on future expected returns and transaction costs. Predictors with slower mean reversion (alpha decay) get more weight since they lead to a favorable positioning both now and in the future. We implement the optimal policy for commodity futures and show that the resulting portfolio has superior returns net of trading costs relative to more naive benchmarks. Finally, we derive natural equilibrium implications, including that demand shocks with faster mean reversion command a higher return premium.

Suggested Citation

  • Pedersen, Lasse Heje & Garleanu, Nicolae Bogdan, 2009. "Dynamic Trading with Predictable Returns and Transaction Costs," CEPR Discussion Papers 7392, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7392
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cepr.org/publications/DP7392
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Acharya, Viral V. & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2005. "Asset pricing with liquidity risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 375-410, August.
    2. Andrew W. Lo & Harry Mamaysky & Jiang Wang, 2004. "Asset Prices and Trading Volume under Fixed Transactions Costs," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(5), pages 1054-1090, October.
    3. Ricardo Lagos & Guillaume Rocheteau, 2006. "Search in asset markets," Working Papers (Old Series) 0607, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    4. Longstaff, Francis A, 2001. "Optimal Portfolio Choice and the Valuation of Illiquid Securities," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(2), pages 407-431.
    5. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2005. "Predatory Trading," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1825-1863, August.
    6. Jean-Luc Vila & Dimitri Vayanos, 1999. "Equilibrium interest rate and liquidity premium with transaction costs," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 13(3), pages 509-539.
    7. Lars Ljungqvist & Thomas J. Sargent, 2004. "Recursive Macroeconomic Theory, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 026212274x, April.
    8. Anthony W. Lynch & Pierluigi Balduzzi, 2000. "Predictability and Transaction Costs: The Impact on Rebalancing Rules and Behavior," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 2285-2309, October.
    9. Vayanos, Dimitri, 1998. "Transaction Costs and Asset Prices: A Dynamic Equilibrium Model," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(1), pages 1-58.
    10. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Lynch, Anthony W., 1999. "Transaction costs and predictability: some utility cost calculations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 47-78, April.
    11. George M. Constantinides, 2005. "Capital Market Equilibrium with Transaction Costs," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 7, pages 207-227, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    12. Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim, 1986. "Asset pricing and the bid-ask spread," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 223-249, December.
    13. M. H. A. Davis & A. R. Norman, 1990. "Portfolio Selection with Transaction Costs," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 15(4), pages 676-713, November.
    14. Heaton, John & Lucas, Deborah J, 1996. "Evaluating the Effects of Incomplete Markets on Risk Sharing and Asset Pricing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 443-487, June.
    15. Obizhaeva, Anna A. & Wang, Jiang, 2013. "Optimal trading strategy and supply/demand dynamics," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 1-32.
    16. Campbell, John Y. & Viceira, Luis M., 2002. "Strategic Asset Allocation: Portfolio Choice for Long-Term Investors," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296942.
    17. Bong‐Gyu Jang & Hyeng Keun Koo & Hong Liu & Mark Loewenstein, 2007. "Liquidity Premia and Transaction Costs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(5), pages 2329-2366, October.
    18. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:1:p:289-338 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Bruce Ian Carlin & Miguel Sousa Lobo & S. Viswanathan, 2007. "Episodic Liquidity Crises: Cooperative and Predatory Trading," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(5), pages 2235-2274, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vayanos, Dimitri & Wang, Jiang, 2013. "Market Liquidity—Theory and Empirical Evidence ," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1289-1361, Elsevier.
    2. Dimitri Vayanos & Jiang Wang, 2012. "Market Liquidity -- Theory and Empirical Evidence," NBER Working Papers 18251, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Gârleanu, Nicolae & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2016. "Dynamic portfolio choice with frictions," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 487-516.
    4. Pereira, João Pedro & Zhang, Harold H., 2010. "Stock Returns and the Volatility of Liquidity," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(4), pages 1077-1110, August.
    5. Buss, Adrian & Uppal, Raman & Vilkov, Grigory, 2015. "Asset prices in general equilibrium with recursive utility and illiquidity induced by transactions costs," SAFE Working Paper Series 41, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, revised 2015.
    6. Sergey Isaenko & Rui Zhong, 2015. "Liquidity premium in the presence of stock market crises and background risk," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 79-90, January.
    7. Adrian Buss & Bernard Dumas, 2019. "The Dynamic Properties of Financial‐Market Equilibrium with Trading Fees," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(2), pages 795-844, April.
    8. Collin-Dufresne, Pierre & Daniel, Kent & Sağlam, Mehmet, 2020. "Liquidity regimes and optimal dynamic asset allocation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 379-406.
    9. Albuquerque, Rui & Song, Shiyun & Yao, Chen, 2017. "The Price Effects of Liquidity Shocks: A Study of SEC’s Tick-Size Experiment," CEPR Discussion Papers 12486, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Guo, Ming & Ou-Yang, Hui, 2021. "Alpha decay and Sharpe ratio: Two measures of investor performance," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    11. Albuquerque, Rui & Song, Shiyun & Yao, Chen, 2020. "The price effects of liquidity shocks: A study of the SEC’s tick size experiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(3), pages 700-724.
    12. Isaenko, Sergey, 2023. "Transaction costs, frequent trading, and stock prices," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    13. Johannes Muhle-Karbe & Xiaofei Shi & Chen Yang, 2020. "An Equilibrium Model for the Cross-Section of Liquidity Premia," Papers 2011.13625, arXiv.org.
    14. Vayanos, Dimitri & Wang, Jiang, 2009. "Liquidity and asset prices: a united framework," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 29303, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. Francis Longstaff, 2014. "Valuing Thinly-Traded Assets," NBER Working Papers 20589, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Isaenko, Sergei, 2010. "Portfolio choice under transitory price impact," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2375-2389, November.
    17. Anthony W. Lynch & Sinan Tan, 2004. "Explaining the Magnitude of Liquidity Premia: The Roles of Return Predictability, Wealth Shocks and State-Dependent Transaction Costs," NBER Working Papers 10994, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Jan Kallsen & Johannes Muhle-Karbe, 2013. "The General Structure of Optimal Investment and Consumption with Small Transaction Costs," Papers 1303.3148, arXiv.org, revised May 2015.
    19. Dimitri Vayanos & Pierre‐Olivier Weill, 2008. "A Search‐Based Theory of the On‐the‐Run Phenomenon," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1361-1398, June.
    20. Vayanos, Dimitri & Wang, Tan, 2007. "Search and endogenous concentration of liquidity in asset markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 66-104, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic trading; Portfolio choice; Predictability; Transaction costs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7392. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.