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Spillovers from US monetary policy: Evidence from a time-varying parameter GVAR model

Author

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  • Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus

    () (WU Wirtschaftsuniversität Wien)

  • Doppelhofer, Gernot

    () (Norwegian School of Economics)

  • Feldkircher, Martin

    () (Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank))

  • Huber, Florian

    () (University of Salzburg)

Abstract

This paper develops a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility to analyze whether international spillovers of US monetary policy have changed over time. The proposed model allows assessing whether coefficients evolve gradually over time or are better characterized by infrequent, but large breaks. Our findings point towards pronounced changes in the international transmission of US monetary policy throughout the sample period, especially so for the reaction of international output, equity prices, and exchange rates against the US dollar. In general, the strength of spillovers has weakened in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. Using simple panel regressions, we link the variation in international responses to measures of trade and financial globalization. We find that a broad trade base and a high degree of financial integration with the world economy tend to cushion risks stemming from a foreign shock such as a US monetary policy tightening, whereas a reduction in trade barriers and/or a liberalization of the capital account increase these risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & Doppelhofer, Gernot & Feldkircher, Martin & Huber, Florian, 2018. "Spillovers from US monetary policy: Evidence from a time-varying parameter GVAR model," Working Papers in Economics 2018-6, University of Salzburg.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:sbgwpe:2018_006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Carrillo, Julio A. & Elizondo, Rocio & Hernández-Román, Luis G., 2020. "Inquiry on the transmission of U.S. aggregate shocks to Mexico: A SVAR approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Spillovers; zero lower bound; globalization; mixture innovation models;

    JEL classification:

    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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