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Global Impacts of US Monetary Policy Uncertainty Shocks

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  • Povilas Lastauskas

    (Bank of Lithuania & Vilnius University)

  • Anh Dinh Minh Nguyen

    (Bank of Lithuania & Vilnius University)

Abstract

We build a new empirical model to estimate the global impact of an increase in the volatility of US monetary policy shocks. Specifically, we admit time-varying variances of local structural shocks from a stochastic volatility specification. By allowing for rich dynamic interaction between the endogenous variables and timevarying volatility in the global setting, we find that US interest rate uncertainty not only drives local output and inflation volatility, but also causes declines in output, inflation, and the interest rate. Moreover, we document strong global impacts, making the world move in a very synchronous way. Crucially, spillback effects are found to be significant even for the US economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Povilas Lastauskas & Anh Dinh Minh Nguyen, 2020. "Global Impacts of US Monetary Policy Uncertainty Shocks," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 84, Bank of Lithuania.
    • Handle: RePEc:lie:wpaper:84
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    Cited by:

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    3. Narayan, Seema & Cirikisuva, Salote & Naivutu, Revoni, 2023. "A hybrid NKPC inflation model for the small Island state of Fiji," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 873-886.
    4. Arata ITO & Masahiro SATO & Rui OTA, 2024. "Content-based Metric on Monetary Policy Uncertainty by Using Large Language Models," Discussion papers 24080, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
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    6. Considine, Jennifer & Hatipoglu, Emre & Aldayel, Abdullah, 2022. "The sensitivity of oil price shocks to preexisting market conditions: A GVAR analysis," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    US Monetary Policy; Volatility Shocks; Uncertainty; Global Economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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