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Global Spillover Effects of US Uncertainty

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Abstract

We study spillover effects of US uncertainty fluctuations using panel data from fifteen emerging market economies (EMEs). A US uncertainty shock negatively affects EME stock prices and exchange rates, raises EME country spreads, and leads to capital outflows from them. Moreover, it decreases EME output, while increasing their consumer prices and net exports. The negative effects on output, exchange rates, and stock prices are weaker, but the effects on capital and trade flows stronger, for South American countries compared to other EMEs. We present a model of a small open economy that faces an external shock to interpret our findings.

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  • Bhattarai, Saroj & Chatterjee, Arpita & Park, Woong Yong, 2017. "Global Spillover Effects of US Uncertainty," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 331, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddgw:331
    DOI: 10.24149/gwp331
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    1. Saroj Bhattarai & Arpita Chatterjee & Woong Yong Park, 2015. "Effects of US quantitative easing on emerging market economies," CAMA Working Papers 2015-47, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
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    1. Taniya Ghosh & Sohini Sahu & Siddhartha Chattopadhyay, 2017. "Households' Inflation Expectations in India: Role of Economic Policy Uncertainty and Global Financial Uncertainty Spill-over," Working Papers id:11890, eSocialSciences.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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