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Global Spillover Effects of US Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Saroj Bhattarai

    (University of Texas at Austin)

  • Arpita Chatterjee

    (UNSW Business School, UNSW)

  • Woong Yong Park

    (Seoul National University)

Abstract

We study spillover effects of US uncertainty fluctuations using panel data from fifteen emerging market economies (EMEs). A US uncertainty shock negatively affects EME stock prices and exchange rates, raises EME country spreads, and leads to capital outflows from them. Moreover, it decreases EME output, while increasing their consumer prices and net exports. The negative effects on output, exchange rates, and stock prices are weaker, but the effects on capital and trade flows stronger, for South American countries compared to other EMEs. We present a model of a small open economy that faces an external shock to interpret our findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Saroj Bhattarai & Arpita Chatterjee & Woong Yong Park, 2017. "Global Spillover Effects of US Uncertainty," Discussion Papers 2017-17, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
  • Handle: RePEc:swe:wpaper:2017-17
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    File URL: http://research.economics.unsw.edu.au/RePEc/papers/2017-17.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    US Uncertainty; Emerging Market Economies; Small Open Economy Model; Capital Flows; Country Spread;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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