IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks in Emerging Economies

  • Yan Carrière–Swallow
  • Luis Felipe Céspedes

A recent strand of research proposes that sudden jumps in uncertainty generate rapid drops and recoveries in real macroeconomic variables that drive the business cycle. Using an empirical model, we find substantial heterogeneity in the reactions to these shocks across countries. In comparison to the U.S. and other developed countries, emerging economies suffer much more severe falls in investment and private consumption following an exogenous uncertainty shock, take significantly longer to recover, and do not experience a subsequent overshoot in activity. We provide evidence that the dynamics of investment and consumption are correlated with the depth of financial markets. Once we control for the potential role of credit constraints, we find that investment and consumption dynamics in emerging economies are similar to those in developed economies. In this context, monetary and fiscal policy actions that alleviate the impact of credit constraints facing firms and households may reduce the impact of uncertainty shocks in these economies.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://si2.bcentral.cl/public/pdf/documentos-trabajo/pdf/dtbc646.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 646.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: Nov 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:646
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Casilla No967, Santiago

Phone: (562) 670 2000
Fax: (562) 698 4847
Web page: http://www.bcentral.cl/

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Aizenman, Joshua & Powell, Andrew, 2003. "Volatility and financial intermediation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 657-679, October.
  2. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1998. "Does monetary policy generate recessions?," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 98-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  3. Avinash Dixit, 1992. "Investment and Hysteresis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 107-132, Winter.
  4. Lane, Philip R, 2003. "Business Cycles and Macroeconomic Policy in Emerging Market Economies," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(1), pages 89-108, Spring.
  5. Ricardo J. Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2008. "Collective Risk Management in a Flight to Quality Episode," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(5), pages 2195-2230, October.
  6. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones, 2010. "Recessions and Financial Disruptions in Emerging Marketes: A Bird's Eye View," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 13(2), pages 55-84, August.
  7. Martin Uribe & Vivian Z. Yue, 2003. "Country Spreads and Emerging Countries: Who Drives Whom?," NBER Working Papers 10018, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2004. "Financial development and the instability of open economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1077-1106, September.
  9. Pablo A. Neumeyer & Fabrizio Perri, 2004. "Business Cycles in Emerging Economies: The Role of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 10387, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2006. "Financial dollarization: evaluating the consequences," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 21(45), pages 61-118, 01.
  11. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones, 2010. "Recessions and Financial Disruptions in Emerging Markets: A Bird´s Eye View," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 585, Central Bank of Chile.
  12. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo A. Guerrón-Quintana & Juan Rubio-Ramírez & Martín Uribe, 2009. "Risk Matters: The Real Effects of Volatility Shocks," NBER Working Papers 14875, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Luis Felipe Cespedes & Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 2000. "Balance Sheets and Exchange Rate Policy," NBER Working Papers 7840, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Nick Bloom & Stephen Bond & John Van Reenen, 2006. "Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics," CEP Discussion Papers dp0739, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  15. Nicholas Bloom, 2007. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," NBER Working Papers 13385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Akito Matsumoto, 2011. "Global Liquidity; Availability of Funds for Safe and Risky Assets," IMF Working Papers 11/136, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Diego Saravia, 2010. "Monetary Policy Under Financial Turbulence: an Overview," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 594, Central Bank of Chile.
  18. M. Ruth & K. Donaghy & P. Kirshen, 2006. "Introduction," Chapters, in: Regional Climate Change and Variability, chapter 1 Edward Elgar Publishing.
  19. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106.
  20. Yan Carrière–Swallow & Carlos Medel, 2011. "Incertidumbre Global sobre la Economía Chilena," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 647, Central Bank of Chile.
  21. Pindyck, Robert S, 1991. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 1110-48, September.
  22. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-51, December.
  23. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Vegh, 2004. "When it Rains, it Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies," NBER Working Papers 10780, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique G., 2000. "Rational contagion and the globalization of securities markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 79-113, June.
  25. Gourio, François & Siemer, Michael & Verdelhan, Adrien, 2013. "International risk cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 471-484.
  26. Kenneth J. Arrow & Anthony C. Fisher, 1974. "Environmental Preservation, Uncertainty, and Irreversibility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 88(2), pages 312-319.
  27. J. M. Keynes, 1937. "The General Theory of Employment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(2), pages 209-223.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:646. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Claudio Sepulveda)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.