Incertidumbre Global sobre la Economía Chilena
In this paper we estimate the impact of global uncertainty shocks –identified as sudden jumps in U.S. stock market volatility– on certain sectors of the Chilean economy. Using a reduced-form VAR approach, we estimate that uncertainty shocks generate a fall in GDP of 1.7% with respect to trend, and a fall in domestic demand of 2.2% within three quarters. On the supply side, the sector in which activity falls most is construction (-4.0%), while the largest drops in demand occur in durable goods consumption (-7.0%) and investment in plant and equipment (-10.0%). These results are broadly consistent with the literature on investment under uncertainty with partial irreversibility, and provide preliminary evidence about possible mechanisms through which global uncertainty affects emerging markets, with corresponding implications for stabilization policy.
|Date of creation:||Nov 2011|
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- Nick Bloom & John Van Reenen & Stephen Bond, 2006.
"Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics,"
NBER Working Papers
12383, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Nick Bloom & Stephen Bond & John Van Reenen, 2006. "Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics," CEP Discussion Papers dp0739, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- John Van Reenen & Nick Bloom & Steve Bond, 2006. "Uncertainty and investment dynamics," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 2645, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Nicholas Bloom & Max Floetotto & Nir Jaimovich & Itay Saporta-Eksten & Stephen Terry, 2013.
"Really uncertain business cycles,"
LSE Research Online Documents on Economics
51526, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Nicholas Bloom & Max Floetotto & Nir Jaimovich & Itay Saporta-Eksten & Stephen Terry, 2013. "Really Uncertain Business Cycles," CEP Discussion Papers dp1195, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Nicholas Bloom & Max Floetotto & Nir Jaimovich & Itay Saporta-Eksten & Stephen J. Terry, 2012. "Really Uncertain Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 18245, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Nicholas Bloom & Max Floetotto & Nir Jaimovich & Itay Saporta-Eksten & Stephen J. Terry, 2014. "Really Uncertain Business Cycles," Working Papers 14-18, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
- J. M. Keynes, 1937. "The General Theory of Employment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(2), pages 209-223.
- Nicholas Bloom, 2007.
"The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks,"
NBER Working Papers
13385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Carrière-Swallow, Yan & Medel, Carlos, 2011.
"Incertidumbre Global sobre el Pacífico Sur,"
2011-016, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
- Yan Carrière-Swallow & Carlos A. Medel V., 2011. "Incertidumbre Externa sobre la Economía Chilena," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 14(3), pages 75-82, December.
- Avinash Dixit, 1992. "Investment and Hysteresis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 107-132, Winter.
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