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Incertidumbre Global sobre la Economía Chilena

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  • Yan Carrière–Swallow
  • Carlos Medel

Abstract

In this paper we estimate the impact of global uncertainty shocks –identified as sudden jumps in U.S. stock market volatility– on certain sectors of the Chilean economy. Using a reduced-form VAR approach, we estimate that uncertainty shocks generate a fall in GDP of 1.7% with respect to trend, and a fall in domestic demand of 2.2% within three quarters. On the supply side, the sector in which activity falls most is construction (-4.0%), while the largest drops in demand occur in durable goods consumption (-7.0%) and investment in plant and equipment (-10.0%). These results are broadly consistent with the literature on investment under uncertainty with partial irreversibility, and provide preliminary evidence about possible mechanisms through which global uncertainty affects emerging markets, with corresponding implications for stabilization policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Yan Carrière–Swallow & Carlos Medel, 2011. "Incertidumbre Global sobre la Economía Chilena," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 647, Central Bank of Chile.
  • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:647
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nick Bloom & Stephen Bond & John Van Reenen, 2007. "Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(2), pages 391-415.
    2. Nicholas Bloom & Max Floetotto & Nir Jaimovich & Itay Saporta-Eksten & Stephen J. Terry, 2012. "Really Uncertain Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 18245, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. J. M. Keynes, 1937. "The General Theory of Employment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(2), pages 209-223.
    4. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
    5. Yan Carrière-Swallow & Carlos A. Medel V., 2011. "Incertidumbre Externa sobre la Economía Chilena," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 14(3), pages 75-82, December.
    6. Avinash Dixit, 1992. "Investment and Hysteresis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 107-132, Winter.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yan Carrière-Swallow & Carlos A. Medel V., 2011. "Incertidumbre Externa sobre la Economía Chilena," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 14(3), pages 75-82, December.
    2. Carrière-Swallow, Yan & Céspedes, Luis Felipe, 2013. "The impact of uncertainty shocks in emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 316-325.
    3. Luis Ceballos S. & Mario González F., 2012. "Indicador de Condiciones Económicas," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 15(1), pages 105-117, April.

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