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Incertidumbre Externa sobre la Economía Chilena

Author

Listed:
  • Yan Carrière-Swallow
  • Carlos A. Medel V.

Abstract

Literatura reciente ha establecido que aumentos repentinos en el nivel de incertidumbre global generan caídas de la actividad alrededor del mundo. Trabajos teóricos predicen que no todos los sectores de las economías deberían verse afectados de la misma manera. En este trabajo se estima el impacto de shocks de incertidumbre globales (i.e. un fuerte incremento en la volatilidad del mercado accionario estadounidense) sobre sectores de la economía chilena y peruana. Mediante vectores autorregresivos se encuentra que la caída del PIB alcanza 1,7 y 1,0% respecto al crecimiento de su tendencia, para Chile y Perú respectivamente, ambas cercanas a los 3 trimestres siguientes de ocurrido el shock. A nivel sectorial, en Chile la caída más pronunciada se observa en el sector construcción (cerca de -4,0 %), mientras que por el lado de la demanda es el consumo durable (alrededor de -7,0 %) y maquinarias y equipos (-10,0 %). Para el caso peruano, se destacan la caída de la inversión (-4,5 %) por el lado de la demanda, y del sector manufacturero (-4,0 %) por el lado de la oferta.
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Suggested Citation

  • Yan Carrière-Swallow & Carlos A. Medel V., 2011. "Incertidumbre Externa sobre la Economía Chilena," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 14(3), pages 75-82, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchni:v:14:y:2011:i:3:p:75-82
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nick Bloom & Stephen Bond & John Van Reenen, 2007. "Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(2), pages 391-415.
    2. Nicholas Bloom & Max Floetotto & Nir Jaimovich & Itay Saporta-Eksten & Stephen J. Terry, 2012. "Really Uncertain Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 18245, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. J. M. Keynes, 1937. "The General Theory of Employment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(2), pages 209-223.
    4. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
    5. Yan Carrière-Swallow & Carlos A. Medel V., 2011. "Incertidumbre Externa sobre la Economía Chilena," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 14(3), pages 75-82, December.
    6. Avinash Dixit, 1992. "Investment and Hysteresis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 107-132, Winter.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yan Carrière-Swallow & Carlos A. Medel V., 2011. "Incertidumbre Externa sobre la Economía Chilena," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 14(3), pages 75-82, December.
    2. Carrière-Swallow, Yan & Céspedes, Luis Felipe, 2013. "The impact of uncertainty shocks in emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 316-325.
    3. Luis Ceballos S. & Mario González F., 2012. "Indicador de Condiciones Económicas," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 15(1), pages 105-117, April.

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