Investment and Hysteresis
It seems that firms behave contrary to the standard economic theory of investment. We observe that firms do not invest as soon a price rises above long-run average cost; instead firms wait until price rises substantially above long-run average cost. On the downside, firms stay in business for lengthy periods while absorbing operating losses, and price can fall substantially below average variable cost without inducing disinvestment or exit. Recent developments in the theory of investment under uncertainty offer an interesting new explanation. The new approach builds on an interesting analogy between real investments and options in financial markets: In the timing of investment, waiting has positive value because time brings more information about the future prospects of a project. This new approach suggests that textbook pictures of the dynamics of a competitive industry need to be substantially redrawn. More generally, it says that a great deal of inertia is optimal when dynamic decisions are being made in an uncertain environment.
Volume (Year): 6 (1992)
Issue (Month): 1 (Winter)
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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Avinash Dixit, 1989. "Hysteresis, Import Penetration, and Exchange Rate Pass-Through," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 104(2), pages 205-228.
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Policy Research Working Paper Series
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- George A. Akerlof & Janet L. Yellen, 1985. "A Near-Rational Model of the Business Cycle, with Wage and Price Inertia," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 100(Supplemen), pages 823-838.
- N. Gregory Mankiw, 1985. "Small Menu Costs and Large Business Cycles: A Macroeconomic Model of Monopoly," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 100(2), pages 529-538.
- Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106.
- Robert C. Merton, 1973. "Theory of Rational Option Pricing," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 4(1), pages 141-183, Spring.
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