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Irreversible investment under interest rate variability: new results

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  • Alvarez, Luis H. R.
  • Koskela, Erkki

Abstract

The current literature on irreversible investment decisions usually makes the assumption of a constant interest rate.We study the impact of interest rate and revenue variability on the decision to carry out an irreversible investment project.Given the generality of the valuation problem considered, we first provide a thorough mathematical characterization of the two-dimensional optimal stopping problem and develop some new results.We establish that interest rate variability has a profound decelerating or accelerating impact on investment demand depending on whether the current interest rate is below or above the long run steady state interest rate, and that its quantitative size may be very large. Allowing for interest rate uncertainty is shown to decelerate rational investment demand by raising both the required exercise premium of the irreversible investment opportunity and the value of waiting.Finally, we demonstrate that increased revenue volatility strengthens the negative impact of interest rate uncertainty and vice versa.

Suggested Citation

  • Alvarez, Luis H. R. & Koskela, Erkki, 2003. "Irreversible investment under interest rate variability: new results," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 29/2003, Bank of Finland.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofrdp:rdp2003_029
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    Cited by:

    1. Alvarez, Luis H. R. & Koskela, Erkki, 2005. "Wicksellian theory of forest rotation under interest rate variability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 529-545, March.
    2. Nesrine Dardouri & Abdelkader Aguir & Ramzi Farhani & Mounir Smida, 2023. "Revisiting the Determinants of Investment- The Case of Tunisia," Post-Print hal-04101430, HAL.
    3. Zhang, Ran & Xu, Shuang, 2014. "Optimal stopping time with stochastic volatility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 319-328.
    4. Faris Alshubiri, 2022. "The Impact of the Real Interest Rate, the Exchange Rate and Political Stability on Foreign Direct Investment Inflows: A Comparative Analysis of G7 and GCC Countries," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 29(3), pages 569-603, September.

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    JEL classification:

    • Q23 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Forestry
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination

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