Wicksellian theory of forest rotation under interest rate variability
The current literature on optimal forest rotation makes the assumption of constant interest rate. However, the irreversible harvesting decisions of forest stands are typically subject to relatively long time horizons over which interest rates do fluctuate considerably. In this paper we apply the Wicksellian single rotation framework to extend the existing studies to cover the unexplored case of variable interest rate. Given the technical generality of the considered valuation problem, we provide a thorough mathematical characterization of the optimal timing problem and develop new results. We show that even in the deterministic case if the current interest rate deviates from its long-run steady state, interest rate variability changes the rotation age significantly when compared with the constant discounting case. Further, and importantly, allowing for interest rate uncertainty is shown to increase the optimal rotation period when the value of the optimal policy is a convex function of the current interest rate. In line with this finding, we also establish that increased interest rate volatility has a positive impact on the optimal rotation period.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1992. "Waiting to Invest: Investment and Uncertainty," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(1), pages 1-29, January.
- Reed, William J., 1993. "The decision to conserve or harvest old-growth forest," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 45-69, August.
- Alvarez, Luis H.R. & Koskela , Erkki, 2003.
"Irreversible investment under interest rate variability: new results,"
Research Discussion Papers
29/2003, Bank of Finland.
- Luis H.R. Alvarez & Erkki Koskela, 2004. "Irreversible investment under interest rate variability: new results," Others 0404007, EconWPA.
- Luis H. R. Alvarez & Erkki Koskela, 2002. "Irreversible Investment under Interest Rate Variability: New Results," CESifo Working Paper Series 640, CESifo Group Munich.
- Samuelson, Paul A, 1976. "Economics of Forestry in an Evolving Society," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 14(4), pages 466-92, December.
- Yaacov Z. Bergman & Bruce D. Grundy & Zvi Wiener, .
"General Properties of Option Prices (Revision of 11-95) (Reprint 058),"
Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers
01-96, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Yaacov Z. Bergman & Bruce D. Grundy & Zvi Wiener, . "General Properties of Option Prices (Revision of 11-95) (Reprint 058)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 1-96, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Thomas A. Thomson, 1992. "Optimal Forest Rotation When Stumpage Prices Follow a Diffusion Process," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 68(3), pages 329-342.
- repec:spr:compst:v:54:y:2001:i:2:p:315-337 is not listed on IDEAS
- Alvarez, Luis H.R. & Koskela, Erkki, 2003.
"Irreversible Investment under Interest Rate Variability: Some Generalizations,"
841, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
- Luis H. R. Alvarez & Erkki Koskela, 2006. "Irreversible Investment under Interest Rate Variability: Some Generalizations," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(2), pages 623-644, March.
- Reed, William J., 1984. "The effects of the risk of fire on the optimal rotation of a forest," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 180-190, June.
- Morck, Randall & Schwartz, Eduardo & Stangeland, David, 1989. "The Valuation of Forestry Resources under Stochastic Prices and Inventories," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(04), pages 473-487, December.
- repec:spr:compst:v:53:y:2001:i:1:p:89-99 is not listed on IDEAS
- Merton, Robert C., 1973.
"An asymptotic theory of growth under uncertainty,"
673-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
- Alvarez, Luis H. R., 2001. "On the form and risk-sensitivity of zero coupon bonds for a class of interest rate models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 83-90, February.
- Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1980. " An Analysis of Variable Rate Loan Contracts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(2), pages 389-403, May.
- Hartman, Richard, 1976. "The Harvesting Decision When a Standing Forest Has Value," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 14(1), pages 52-58, March.
- Bergman, Yaacov Z & Grundy, Bruce D & Wiener, Zvi, 1996. " General Properties of Option Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1573-1610, December.
- Koskela, Erkki & Ollikainen, Markku, 2001. "Forest Taxation and Rotation Age under Private Amenity Valuation: New Results," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 374-384, November.
- Insley, Margaret, 2002. "A Real Options Approach to the Valuation of a Forestry Investment," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 471-492, November.
- Markku Ollikainen & Erkki Koskela, 2001. "Optimal Private and Public Harvesting under Spatial and Temporal Interdependence," CESifo Working Paper Series 452, CESifo Group Munich.
- Reed, William J & Clarke, Harry R, 1990. "Harvest Decisions and Asset Valuation for Biological Resources Exhibiting Size-Dependent Stochastic Growth," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 31(1), pages 147-69, February.
- Swallow Stephen K. & Wear David N., 1993. "Spatial Interactions in Multiple-Use Forestry and Substitution and Wealth Effects for the Single Stand," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 103-120, September.
- Tahvonen, Olli & Salo, Seppo & Kuuluvainen, Jari, 2001. "Optimal forest rotation and land values under a borrowing constraint," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1595-1627, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:29:y:2005:i:3:p:529-545. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.