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Optimal Harvesting under Resource Stock and Price Uncertainty

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  • Luis H. R. Alvarez
  • Erkki Koskela

Abstract

We analyze optimal harvesting policy under stochastic price and stock dynamics. We state a set of weak conditions under which the optimal policy can be characterized by a single exercise threshold and show that the value of optimal harvesting and depletion policies can be expressed as the separable form according to which only the current price and the expected per capita growth rate affect the threshold, while under risk neutrality volatility of price dynamics will have no effect. Uncertainty makes waiting valuable and the optimal threshold is higher when harvesting can be exercised only once than in the sequential case.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis H. R. Alvarez & Erkki Koskela, 2005. "Optimal Harvesting under Resource Stock and Price Uncertainty," CESifo Working Paper Series 1384, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1384
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Luis Alvarez & Jukka Virtanen, 2006. "A class of solvable stochastic dividend optimization problems: on the general impact of flexibility on valuation," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 28(2), pages 373-398, June.
    2. Alvarez, Luis H.R. & Koskela, Erkki, 2006. "Does risk aversion accelerate optimal forest rotation under uncertainty?," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 171-184, December.
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    6. Willassen, Yngve, 1998. "The stochastic rotation problem: A generalization of Faustmann's formula to stochastic forest growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 573-596, April.
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    18. Reed, William J & Clarke, Harry R, 1990. "Harvest Decisions and Asset Valuation for Biological Resources Exhibiting Size-Dependent Stochastic Growth," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 31(1), pages 147-169, February.
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    Keywords

    optimal harvesting; stochastic price and stock dynamics; single and sequential harvesting opportunity;

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