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Optimal Harvesting under Resource Stock and Price Uncertainty

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  • Luis H. R. Alvarez
  • Erkki Koskela

Abstract

We analyze optimal harvesting policy under stochastic price and stock dynamics. We state a set of weak conditions under which the optimal policy can be characterized by a single exercise threshold and show that the value of optimal harvesting and depletion policies can be expressed as the separable form according to which only the current price and the expected per capita growth rate affect the threshold, while under risk neutrality volatility of price dynamics will have no effect. Uncertainty makes waiting valuable and the optimal threshold is higher when harvesting can be exercised only once than in the sequential case.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis H. R. Alvarez & Erkki Koskela, 2005. "Optimal Harvesting under Resource Stock and Price Uncertainty," CESifo Working Paper Series 1384, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1384
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Luis Alvarez & Jukka Virtanen, 2006. "A class of solvable stochastic dividend optimization problems: on the general impact of flexibility on valuation," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 28(2), pages 373-398, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ben Abdallah, Skander & Lasserre, Pierre, 2016. "Asset retirement with infinitely repeated alternative replacements: Harvest age and species choice in forestry," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, pages 144-164.
    2. Adriana Piazza & Bernardo Pagnoncelli, 2015. "The stochastic Mitra–Wan forestry model: risk neutral and risk averse cases," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 115(2), pages 175-194, June.
    3. Pekka Matomäki, 2012. "On solvability of a two-sided singular control problem," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 76(3), pages 239-271, December.
    4. Coculescu, Delia, 2011. "Dividends and leverage: How to optimally exploit a non-renewable investment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 312-329, March.
    5. Navarrete, Eduardo & Bustos, Jaime, 2013. "Faustmann optimal pine stands stochastic rotation problem," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 39-45.
    6. Framstad, Nils Chr., 2014. "The Effect of Small Intervention Costs on the Optimal Extraction of Dividends and Renewable Resources in a Jump-Diffusion Model," Memorandum 25/2014, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    7. Buongiorno, Joseph & Zhou, Mo, 2011. "Further generalization of Faustmann's formula for stochastic interest rates," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 248-257, August.
    8. Guo, Christopher & Costello, Christopher, 2013. "The value of adaption: Climate change and timberland management," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 452-468.
    9. Holopainen, Markus & Mäkinen, Antti & Rasinmäki, Jussi & Hyytiäinen, Kari & Bayazidi, Saeed & Pietilä, Ilona, 2010. "Comparison of various sources of uncertainty in stand-level net present value estimates," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 377-386, June.
    10. Chladna, Zuzana, 2007. "Determination of optimal rotation period under stochastic wood and carbon prices," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(8), pages 1031-1045, May.
    11. Davis, Graham A. & Cairns, Robert D., 2012. "Good timing: The economics of optimal stopping," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 255-265.
    12. repec:spr:compst:v:76:y:2012:i:3:p:239-271 is not listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    optimal harvesting; stochastic price and stock dynamics; single and sequential harvesting opportunity;

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