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What is the relevance of option pricing for forest valuation in New Zealand?

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  • Manley, Bruce
  • Niquidet, Kurt

Abstract

Three different option value approaches are used to estimate the value of a typical New Zealand plantation stand, under the assumption that log prices follow a random walk. Crop values are compared with the Faustmann value, the benchmark for forest valuation in New Zealand. The increase in forest value can be substantial when log prices are low and close to the exercise cost. Gains quickly diminish and become small, both as an absolute difference and as a percentage of forest value, as price increases. However, results are very sensitive to the log price model adopted. Assuming log prices are mean reverting gives higher values than Faustmann for all log prices. Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) and Binomial Option Pricing (BOP) give very similar results. They evaluate the same harvest/defer harvest/never harvest options. A new Abandonment Adjusted Price approach gives results that have a similar pattern but are consistently lower than SDP and BOP. This approach only considers whether to harvest or not in the optimal year and does not allow the option of deferring harvest. At the present time, option valuation approaches have limited relevance for the practice of forest valuation in New Zealand. Practical issues (determination of the log price model, estimation of volatility, allowing for multiple log grades and modelling at the estate-level) need to be addressed before option value approaches can be routinely used for forest valuation.

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  • Manley, Bruce & Niquidet, Kurt, 2010. "What is the relevance of option pricing for forest valuation in New Zealand?," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 299-307, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:forpol:v:12:y:2010:i:4:p:299-307
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    Cited by:

    1. Chang, Sun Joseph & Zhang, Fan, 2023. "Active timber management by outsourcing stumpage price uncertainty with the American put option," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    2. James Tee & Riccardo Scarpa & Dan Marsh & Graeme Guthrie, 2014. "Forest Valuation under the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme: A Real Options Binomial Tree with Stochastic Carbon and Timber Prices," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 90(1), pages 44-60.
    3. Tee, James & Scarpa, Riccardo & Marsh, Dan & Guthrie, Graeme, 2010. "A Binomial Tree Approach to Valuing Fixed Rotation Forests and Flexible Rotation Forests Under a Mean Reverting Timber Price Process," 2010 Conference, August 26-27, 2010, Nelson, New Zealand 96836, New Zealand Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    4. Tee, James & Scarpa, Riccardo & Marsh, Dan & Guthrie, Graeme, 2011. "Climate Change Mitigation Policy: The Effect of the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme on New Radiata Pine Forest Plantations in New Zealand," 2011 Conference (55th), February 8-11, 2011, Melbourne, Australia 100703, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    5. Manley, Bruce, 2013. "How does real option value compare with Faustmann value in the context of the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme?," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 14-22.
    6. Arthur Grimes & Sandra Cortés Acosta, 2021. "Permanent forest investment in a climate of uncertainty," Working Papers 21_04, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    7. Luca Vincenzo Ballestra & Graziella Pacelli & Davide Radi, 2017. "Valuing investment projects under interest rate risk: empirical evidence from European firms," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(56), pages 5662-5672, December.
    8. Sunderasan Srinivasan, 2015. "Economic valuation and option-based payments for ecosystem services," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 20(7), pages 1055-1077, October.
    9. Manley, Bruce & Niquidet, Kurt, 2017. "How does real option value compare with Faustmann value when log prices follow fractional Brownian motion?," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(P1), pages 76-84.

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