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Forest Valuation under the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme: A Real Options Binomial Tree with Stochastic Carbon and Timber Prices

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  • James Tee
  • Riccardo Scarpa
  • Dan Marsh
  • Graeme Guthrie

Abstract

Under the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme, forests planted on or after January 1, 1990, earn carbon credits. These credits have to be repaid when the forest is harvested. This paper analyses the effects of this scheme on the value of bareland on which radiata pine is to be planted. A real options method is developed and applied, assuming stochastic carbon and timber prices. We find that land value increases by about 73%, with the optimal rotation age substantially lengthened. The derived optimal harvest price thresholds are useful in deciding whether to harvest or to wait.

Suggested Citation

  • James Tee & Riccardo Scarpa & Dan Marsh & Graeme Guthrie, 2014. "Forest Valuation under the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme: A Real Options Binomial Tree with Stochastic Carbon and Timber Prices," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 90(1), pages 44-60.
    • Handle: RePEc:uwp:landec:v:90:y:2014:i:1:p:44-60
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. An, Hyunjin, 2017. "Forest Carbon Sequestration And Optimal Harvesting Decision Considering Southern Pine Beetle (Spb) Disturbance: A Real Option Approach," Journal of Rural Development/Nongchon-Gyeongje, Korea Rural Economic Institute, vol. 40(Special, ), December.
    2. Kostrova, Alisa & Britz, Wolfgang & Finger, Robert & Djanibekov, Utkur, 2016. "Real Options Approach And Stochastic Programming In Farm Level Analysis: The Case Of Short-Rotation Coppice Cultivation," 56th Annual Conference, Bonn, Germany, September 28-30, 2016 244864, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    3. Yu, Zhihan & Ning, Zhuo & Chang, Wei-Yew & Chang, Sun Joseph & Yang, Hongqiang, 2023. "Optimal harvest decisions for the management of carbon sequestration forests under price uncertainty and risk preferences," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    4. Graeme Guthrie, 2019. "Real options analysis of climate-change adaptation: investment flexibility and extreme weather events," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 156(1), pages 231-253, September.
    5. Liao, Ling & Diaz-Rainey, Ivan & Kuruppuarachchi, Duminda & Gehricke, Sebastian, 2023. "The role of fundamentals and policy in New Zealand's carbon prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    6. Hannah Kotula, 2022. "Valuing forest ecosystem services in New Zealand," Working Papers 22_11, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    7. Sora Yoo & Yong-sung Cho & Hojeong Park, 2018. "An Optimal Management Strategy of Carbon Forestry with a Stochastic Price," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-13, September.
    8. Ravi Kashyap, 2022. "Options as Silver Bullets: Valuation of Term Loans, Inventory Management, Emissions Trading and Insurance Risk Mitigation using Option Theory," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 315(2), pages 1175-1215, August.
    9. Ravi Kashyap, 2016. "Options as Silver Bullets: Valuation of Term Loans, Inventory Management, Emissions Trading and Insurance Risk Mitigation using Option Theory," Papers 1609.01274, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2022.
    10. Schou, Erik & Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark & Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl, 2015. "Regeneration decisions in forestry under climate change related uncertainties and risks: Effects of three different aspects of uncertainty," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 11-19.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q23 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Forestry
    • Q28 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Government Policy

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