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Real Options in Theory and Practice

Author

Listed:
  • Guthrie, Graeme

    (Victoria University of Wellington)

Abstract

Decision makers in business and economics face a staggering array of problems. Managers of growing firms have to decide which growth options will expand their business. Governments have to decide which infrastructure investments to undertake. Managers of oil firms must decide how rapidly to deplete their reserves. Owners of land must decide when and how to develop. Operators of power plants must decide when to start them up and when to shut them down. While these problems seem quite diverse, they share many important features. In each case, the decision maker must choose when to take a particular action that will be difficult, if not impossible, to reverse. In each case, the consequences of taking (or not taking) that action are uncertain. The timing and nature of these actions directly affect revenue. Real options that often vary radically from one problem to another. The book focuses on building a general approach to solving problems from the ground up to show readers how real options can be assembled in a way appropriate to the individual problem being analyzed. The book will inform both practitioners who want to develop their analytical techniques and also graduate students who will eventually become practitioners. The real-options approach to capital budgeting (and business decision-making more generally) was introduced 30 years ago and is now widely accepted. While there are now many books that introduce the concept of real options to a general business audience, students and practitioners have been given little guidance as to how to actually implement these concepts in practice. Each book will feature a CD with spreadsheets intended for a broad range of real-world applications.

Suggested Citation

  • Guthrie, Graeme, 2009. "Real Options in Theory and Practice," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195380637.
  • Handle: RePEc:oxp:obooks:9780195380637
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Evans, Lewis & lu, Yinjia (Andrea) & Guthrie, Graeme, 2010. "A New Zealand Electricity Market Model: Assessment of the effect of climate change on electricity production and consumption," Working Paper Series 4058, Victoria University of Wellington, The New Zealand Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation.
    2. Lewis Evans & Graeme Guthrie & Neil Quigley, 2012. "Contemporary Microeconomic Foundations for the Structure and Management of the Public Sector," Treasury Working Paper Series 12/01, New Zealand Treasury.
    3. Guthrie, Graeme, 2012. "Regulated prices and real options," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 650-663.
    4. Johansen, Stephan & Wilson, William & Dahl, Bruce L., 2015. "Valuing Switching Options in International Grain Marketing," Agribusiness & Applied Economics Report 201309, North Dakota State University, Department of Agribusiness and Applied Economics.
    5. Gaudard, Ludovic, 2015. "Pumped-storage project: A short to long term investment analysis including climate change," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 91-99.
    6. Krzysztof Targiel, 2015. "Real options in a systemic approach to the timing problem in development projects," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Technology, Institute of Organization and Management, vol. 3, pages 73-85.
    7. Wolfgang Briglauer, 2014. "The impact of regulation and competition on the adoption of fiber-based broadband services: recent evidence from the European union member states," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 51-79, August.
    8. Evans, Lewis, 2010. "Infrastructure Investment Under Uncertainty," Working Paper Series 4068, Victoria University of Wellington, The New Zealand Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation.
    9. Glensk, Barbara & Madlener, Reinhard, 2017. "Evaluating the Enhanced Flexibility of Lignite-Fired Power Plants: A Real Options Analysis," FCN Working Papers 107/2016, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    10. Guthrie, Graeme, 2010. "House prices, development costs, and the value of waiting," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 56-71, July.
    11. Kostrova, Alisa & Britz, Wolfgang & Finger, Robert & Djanibekov, Utkur, 2016. "Real Options Approach And Stochastic Programming In Farm Level Analysis: The Case Of Short-Rotation Coppice Cultivation," 56th Annual Conference, Bonn, Germany, September 28-30, 2016 244864, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    12. Arthur Grimes, 2011. "Building Bridges: Treating a New Transport Link as a Real Option," ERSA conference papers ersa11p332, European Regional Science Association.
    13. Marina Bravi & Stefano Rossi & Antonio Talarico, 2013. "Methodology for the Evaluation of Real Options in Real Estate Development in Areas Characterized by Uncertain Scenarios," ERES eres2013_185, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    14. Michi Nishihara, 2017. "Valuation of an R&D project with three types of uncertainty," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 17-15, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP).
    15. Lukas Auer, 2013. "SOA investment decision-making using real options analysis," International Journal of Services, Economics and Management, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(1/2), pages 21-40.
    16. Graeme Guthrie, 2014. "Real Options And The Cross-Section Of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 265-283, April.
    17. Griffith, G.R. & Pollock, K.S. & Burrow, H.M., 2013. "How Did We Go? Revisiting the Ex Ante Economic Impact Assessment of the CRC for Beef Genetic Technologies, as at the Cessation of Funding," Australasian Agribusiness Review, University of Melbourne, Melbourne School of Land and Environment, vol. 21.
    18. Michi Nishihara, 2014. "Valuation of sequential R&D investment under technological, market, and rival preemption uncertainty," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 14-13, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP).
    19. Cai, Xiaowei & Stiegert, Kyle W., 2014. "Market Analysis of Ethanol Capacity," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association (IFAMA), vol. 17(1).
    20. Hu, Qiwei & Zhang, Anming, 2015. "Real option analysis of aircraft acquisition: A case study," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 19-29.
    21. James Tee & Riccardo Scarpa & Dan Marsh & Graeme Guthrie, 2014. "Forest Valuation under the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme: A Real Options Binomial Tree with Stochastic Carbon and Timber Prices," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 90(1), pages 44-60.
    22. Tee, James & Scarpa, Riccardo & Marsh, Dan & Guthrie, Graeme, 2010. "A Binomial Tree Approach to Valuing Fixed Rotation Forests and Flexible Rotation Forests Under a Mean Reverting Timber Price Process," 2010 Conference, August 26-27, 2010, Nelson, New Zealand 96836, New Zealand Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    23. Lund, Diderik & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2013. "Comparative statics for real options on oil: What stylized facts to use?," Memorandum 14/2013, Oslo University, Department of Economics.

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