IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/iaae12/131066.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Valuation of Carbon Forestry and the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme: A Real Options Approach Using the Binomial Tree Method

Author

Listed:
  • Tee, James
  • Scarpa, Riccardo
  • Marsh, Dan
  • Guthrie, Graeme

Abstract

Under the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme, forests planted on or after 1st January 1990 earn carbon credits. These credits have to be repaid when the forest is harvested. This paper analyses the effects of this scheme on the value of bareland on which radiata pine is to be planted. A real options method is developed and applied, assuming stochastic carbon and timber prices. We find that land value increases by about 73%, with the rotation age lengthened. The optimal harvest price thresholds are useful in deciding whether to harvest or to wait.

Suggested Citation

  • Tee, James & Scarpa, Riccardo & Marsh, Dan & Guthrie, Graeme, 2012. "Valuation of Carbon Forestry and the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme: A Real Options Approach Using the Binomial Tree Method," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 131066, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:iaae12:131066
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/131066/files/IAAE%20PaperNo16930%20-%20Tee%20et%20al%20130812%20v5.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Graeme Guthrie & Dinesh Kumareswaran, 2009. "Carbon Subsidies, Taxes and Optimal Forest Management," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 43(2), pages 275-293, June.
    2. Chladna, Zuzana, 2007. "Determination of optimal rotation period under stochastic wood and carbon prices," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(8), pages 1031-1045, May.
    3. Miller, Robert A. & Voltaire, Karl, 1983. "A stochastic analysis of the tree paradigm," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 371-386, September.
    4. Jasmina Behan & Kieran McQuinn & Maurice J. Roche, 2006. "Rural Land Use: Traditional Agriculture or Forestry?," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 82(1), pages 112-123.
    5. Clarke, Harry R. & Reed, William J., 1989. "The tree-cutting problem in a stochastic environment : The case of age-dependent growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 569-595, October.
    6. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A. & Rubinstein, Mark, 1979. "Option pricing: A simplified approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 229-263, September.
    7. Duku-Kaakyire, Armstrong & Nanang, David M., 2004. "Application of real options theory to forestry investment analysis," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(6), pages 539-552, October.
    8. Meade, Richard & Fiuza, Gabriel & Lu, Andrea & Boyle, Glenn & Evans, Lewis, 2009. "Forest and Forest Land Valuation: How to Value Forest and Forest Land to Include Carbon Costs and Benefits," 2009 Conference, August 27-28, 2009, Nelson, New Zealand 97127, New Zealand Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    9. Rajendra Prasad Khajuria & Shashi Kant & Susanna Laaksonen-Craig, 2009. "Valuation of Timber Harvesting Options Using a Contingent Claims Approach," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 85(4), pages 655-674.
    10. Insley, Margaret, 2002. "A Real Options Approach to the Valuation of a Forestry Investment," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 471-492, November.
    11. Brent Sohngen & Robert Mendelsohn, 2003. "An Optimal Control Model of Forest Carbon Sequestration," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(2), pages 448-457.
    12. G. Cornelis van Kooten & Clark S. Binkley & Gregg Delcourt, 1995. "Effect of Carbon Taxes and Subsidies on Optimal Forest Rotation Age and Supply of Carbon Services," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 77(2), pages 365-374.
    13. de Braganca, Gabriel Fiuza & Boyle, Glenn & Evans, Lewis, 2008. "Forest and Forest Land Valuation: How to Value Forests and Forest Land to Include Carbon Costs and Benefits," Working Paper Series 4014, Victoria University of Wellington, The New Zealand Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation.
    14. Margaret Insley & Kimberly Rollins, 2005. "On Solving the Multirotational Timber Harvesting Problem with Stochastic Prices: A Linear Complementarity Formulation," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 87(3), pages 735-755.
    15. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    16. Olschewski, Roland & Benítez, Pablo C., 2010. "Optimizing joint production of timber and carbon sequestration of afforestation projects," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 1-10, January.
    17. Provencher Bill, 1995. "Structural Estimation of the Stochastic Dynamic Decision Problems of Resource Users: An Application to the Timber Harvest Decision," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 321-338, November.
    18. Thomas A. Thomson, 1992. "Optimal Forest Rotation When Stumpage Prices Follow a Diffusion Process," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 68(3), pages 329-342.
    19. Reed, William J & Clarke, Harry R, 1990. "Harvest Decisions and Asset Valuation for Biological Resources Exhibiting Size-Dependent Stochastic Growth," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 31(1), pages 147-169, February.
    20. Myers, Stewart C., 1977. "Determinants of corporate borrowing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 147-175, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Environmental Economics and Policy; Land Economics/Use;

    JEL classification:

    • Q23 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Forestry
    • Q28 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Government Policy
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:iaae12:131066. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/iaaeeea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.