IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ris/fcnwpa/2010_021.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Power Plant Investments in the Turkish Electricity Sector: A Real Options Approach Taking into Account Market Liberalization

Author

Listed:
  • Madlener, Reinhard

    (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN))

  • Stoverink, Simon

    (Evonik Steag GmbH)

Abstract

In this paper we study the economic feasibility of constructing a 560 MW coal-fired power plant in Turkey, using real options theory [1]. We start from a short review of the Turkish electricity market as well as the literature on real options theory and power plant investment. We then investigate the peculiarities and uncertainties related to large-scale power generation. Our special research focus is on the determination of the real options value of the sequential nature of the power plant project considered. To this end, we develop a sequential investment model based on the binomial tree model of Cox, Ross and Rubinstein [2]. The four stages considered are (1) initial project development; (2) detailed planning and permitting; (3) first major project payments; and (4) release of final order. We find that especially for the strategic planning of projects the application of the real options analysis (ROA) can be very useful. The relatively high option value compared to the net present value (NPV) of the project makes clear that the flexibilities of reacting during project realization, depending on the market developments, can be assigned an immense value. A further advantage of the ROA for a staged or sequential investment lies in the fact that it also delivers, besides the option value of the investment, the optimal strategy for exercising the option (i.e. if and when to invest). The revelation of action possibilities and their examination sheds new light on the conventional calculation of the NPV of such projects.

Suggested Citation

  • Madlener, Reinhard & Stoverink, Simon, 2010. "Power Plant Investments in the Turkish Electricity Sector: A Real Options Approach Taking into Account Market Liberalization," FCN Working Papers 21/2010, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN), revised Jul 2011.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:fcnwpa:2010_021
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.fcn.eonerc.rwth-aachen.de/global/show_document.asp?id=aaaaaaaaaagvvku
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christoph Weber, 2005. "Uncertainty in the Electric Power Industry," International Series in Operations Research and Management Science, Springer, number 978-0-387-23048-1, December.
    2. Siddiqui, Afzal S. & Maribu, Karl, 2009. "Investment and upgrade in distributed generation under uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 25-37, January.
    3. Stewart C. Myers, 1984. "Finance Theory and Financial Strategy," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 14(1), pages 126-137, February.
    4. Robert C. Merton, 2005. "Theory of rational option pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 8, pages 229-288, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Gollier, Christian & Proult, David & Thais, Francoise & Walgenwitz, Gilles, 2005. "Choice of nuclear power investments under price uncertainty: Valuing modularity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 667-685, July.
    6. James L. Paddock & Daniel R. Siegel & James L. Smith, 1988. "Option Valuation of Claims on Real Assets: The Case of Offshore Petroleum Leases," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 103(3), pages 479-508.
    7. Myers, Stewart C., 1977. "Determinants of corporate borrowing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 147-175, November.
    8. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    9. Brennan, Michael J & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1985. "Evaluating Natural Resource Investments," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(2), pages 135-157, April.
    10. Marreco, Juliana de Moraes & Carpio, Lucio Guido Tapia, 2006. "Flexibility valuation in the Brazilian power system: A real options approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(18), pages 3749-3756, December.
    11. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    12. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A. & Rubinstein, Mark, 1979. "Option pricing: A simplified approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 229-263, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dergiades, Theologos & Madlener, Reinhard & Christofidou, Georgia, 2018. "The nexus between natural gas spot and futures prices at NYMEX: Do weather shocks and non-linear causality in low frequencies matter?," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 1-1.
    2. Teuku Naraski Zahari & Benjamin C. McLellan, 2023. "Review of Policies for Indonesia’s Electricity Sector Transition and Qualitative Evaluation of Impacts and Influences Using a Conceptual Dynamic Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(8), pages 1-22, April.
    3. Work, James & Hauer, Grant & Luckert, M.K. (Marty), 2018. "What ethanol prices would induce growers to switch from agriculture to poplar in Alberta? A multiple options approach," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 51-62.
    4. Bernstein, Ronald & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Responsiveness of Residential Electricity Demand in OECD Countries: A Panel Cointegation and Causality Analysis," FCN Working Papers 8/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    5. Cuervo, Felipe Isaza & Botero, Sergio Botero, 2016. "Wind power reliability valuation in a Hydro-Dominated power market: The Colombian case," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 1359-1372.
    6. Michelsen, Carl Christian & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Homeowners' Preferences for Adopting Residential Heating Systems: A Discrete Choice Analysis for Germany," FCN Working Papers 9/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    7. Zhang, Mingming & Tang, Yamei & Liu, Liyun & Zhou, Dequn, 2022. "Optimal investment portfolio strategies for power enterprises under multi-policy scenarios of renewable energy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    8. Sun, Bo & Fan, Boyang & Zhang, Yifan & Xie, Jingdong, 2023. "Investment decisions and strategies of China's energy storage technology under policy uncertainty: A real options approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(PA).
    9. Biancardi, Marta & Di Bari, Antonio & Villani, Giovanni, 2021. "R&D investment decision on smart cities: Energy sustainability and opportunity," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 153(P2).
    10. de Bragança, Gabriel Godofredo Fiuza & Daglish, Toby, 2017. "Investing in vertical integration: electricity retail market participation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 355-365.
    11. Khan, Muhammad T. & Thopil, George Alex & Lalk, Jorg, 2016. "Review of proposals for practical power sector restructuring and reforms in a dynamic electricity supply industry," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 326-335.
    12. Schachter, J.A. & Mancarella, P., 2016. "A critical review of Real Options thinking for valuing investment flexibility in Smart Grids and low carbon energy systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 261-271.
    13. Rohlfs, Wilko & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Multi-Commodity Real Options Analysis of Power Plant Investments: Discounting Endogenous Risk Structures," FCN Working Papers 22/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    14. Fernández, David & Pozo, Carlos & Folgado, Rubén & Guillén-Gosálbez, Gonzalo & Jiménez, Laureano, 2017. "Multiperiod model for the optimal production planning in the industrial gases sector," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 667-682.
    15. Locatelli, Giorgio & Mancini, Mauro & Lotti, Giovanni, 2020. "A simple-to-implement real options method for the energy sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    16. Kraas, Birk & Schroedter-Homscheidt, Marion & Pulvermüller, Benedikt & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Economic Assessment of a Concentrating Solar Power Forecasting System for Participation in the Spanish Electricity Market," FCN Working Papers 12/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    17. Antonio Di Bari, 2020. "A Real Options Approach to Valuate Solar Energy Investment with Public Authority Incentives: The Italian Case," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-15, August.
    18. Lin, Boqiang & Wesseh, Presley K., 2013. "Valuing Chinese feed-in tariffs program for solar power generation: A real options analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 474-482.
    19. Felipe Isaza Cuervo & Sergio Botero Boterob, 2014. "Aplicación de las opciones reales en la toma de decisiones en los mercados de electricidad," Estudios Gerenciales, Universidad Icesi, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Schachter, J.A. & Mancarella, P., 2016. "A critical review of Real Options thinking for valuing investment flexibility in Smart Grids and low carbon energy systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 261-271.
    2. Carlos Andrés Zapata Quimbayo, 2020. "OPCIONES REALES Una guía teórico-práctica para la valoración de inversiones bajo incertidumbre mediante modelos en tiempo discreto y simulación de Monte Carlo," Books, Universidad Externado de Colombia, Facultad de Finanzas, Gobierno y Relaciones Internacionales, number 138, April.
    3. James E. Smith & Kevin F. McCardle, 1998. "Valuing Oil Properties: Integrating Option Pricing and Decision Analysis Approaches," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 46(2), pages 198-217, April.
    4. Felipe Isaza Cuervo & Sergio Botero Boterob, 2014. "Aplicación de las opciones reales en la toma de decisiones en los mercados de electricidad," Estudios Gerenciales, Universidad Icesi, November.
    5. Fernandes, Bartolomeu & Cunha, Jorge & Ferreira, Paula, 2011. "The use of real options approach in energy sector investments," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(9), pages 4491-4497.
    6. Collan, Mikael, 2004. "Giga-Investments: Modelling the Valuation of Very Large Industrial Real Investments," MPRA Paper 4328, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Jan Vlachý, 2009. "Strategie podniku a finanční teorie [Corporate strategy and financial theory]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2009(2), pages 147-162.
    8. Bellalah, Mondher, 2016. "Issues in real options with shadow costs of incomplete information and short sales," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 45-56.
    9. Balibrea-Iniesta, José & Rodríguez-Monroy, Carlos & Núñez-Guerrero, Yilsy María, 2021. "Economic analysis of the German regulation for electrical generation projects from biogas applying the theory of real options," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    10. José Balibrea-Iniesta, 2020. "Economic Analysis of Renewable Energy Regulation in France: A Case Study for Photovoltaic Plants Based on Real Options," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-19, June.
    11. Marco Antonio Guimaraes Dias & Jose Paulo Teixeira, 2010. "Continuous-Time Option Games: Review of Models and Extensions," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 14(3-4), pages 219-254, September.
    12. d’Amato, Maurizio & Zrobek, Sabina & Renigier Bilozor, Malgorzata & Walacik, Marek & Mercadante, Giuseppe, 2019. "Valuing the effect of the change of zoning on underdeveloped land using fuzzy real option approach," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 365-374.
    13. Barbara Glensk & Reinhard Madlener, 2019. "Energiewende @ Risk: On the Continuation of Renewable Power Generation at the End of Public Policy Support," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-25, September.
    14. Caren Sureth, 2002. "Partially Irreversible Investment Decisions and Taxation under Uncertainty: A Real Option Approach," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 3(2), pages 185-221, May.
    15. repec:dau:papers:123456789/1046 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Zhang, Mingming & Zhou, Dequn & Zhou, Peng, 2014. "A real option model for renewable energy policy evaluation with application to solar PV power generation in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 944-955.
    17. Chi-Yo Huang & Hong-Ling Hsieh & Hueiling Chen, 2020. "Evaluating the Investment Projects of Spinal Medical Device Firms Using the Real Option and DANP-mV Based MCDM Methods," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(9), pages 1-41, May.
    18. Hampe, Jona & Madlener, Reinhard, 2012. "Economics of High-Temperature Nuclear Reactors for Industrial Cogeneration," FCN Working Papers 10/2012, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    19. Cheng, Ching-Tsung & Lo, Shang-Lien & Lin, Tyrone T., 2011. "Applying real options analysis to assess cleaner energy development strategies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 5929-5938, October.
    20. Michele Moretto & Chiara D’Alpaos, 2004. "The Value of Flexibility in the Italian Water Service Sector: A Real Option Analysis," Working Papers 2004.140, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    21. Marreco, Juliana de Moraes & Carpio, Lucio Guido Tapia, 2006. "Flexibility valuation in the Brazilian power system: A real options approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(18), pages 3749-3756, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:fcnwpa:2010_021. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Hendrik Schmitz (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fceonde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.