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Economic Assessment of a Concentrating Solar Power Forecasting System for Participation in the Spanish Electricity Market

Author

Listed:
  • Birk Kraas

    (Solar Millennium AG)

  • Marion Schroedter-Homscheidt

    (German Remote Sensing Data Center, German Aerospace Center (DLR))

  • Benedikt Pulvermüller

    (Solar Millennium AG)

  • Reinhard Madlener

    (E.ON Energy Research Center, Institute for Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN), RWTH Aachen University)

Abstract

Forecasts of power production are necessary for the electricity market participation of Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) plants. Deviations from the production schedule may lead to penalty charges. the mitigation impact on deviation penalties of an electricity production forecasting tool for Therefore, the accuracy of direct normal irradiance (DNI) forecasts is an important issue. This paper elaborates the 50 MWel parabolic trough plant Andasol 3 in Spain. A commercial DNI model output statistics (MOS) forecast for the period July 2007 to December 2009 is assessed and compared to the two-day persistence approach, which assumes yesterday’s weather conditions and electricity generation also for the following day. Forecasts are analyzed both with meteorological forecast verification methods and from the perspective of a power plant operator. Using MOS, penalty charges in the study period are reduced by 47.6% compared to the persistence case. Finally, typical error patterns of DNI forecasts and their financial impact are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Birk Kraas & Marion Schroedter-Homscheidt & Benedikt Pulvermüller & Reinhard Madlener, 2011. "Economic Assessment of a Concentrating Solar Power Forecasting System for Participation in the Spanish Electricity Market," FCN Working Papers 12/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:fcnwpa:2011_012
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    38. Richard Lohwasser & Reinhard Madlener, 2009. "Simulation of the European Electricity Market and CCS Development with the HECTOR Model," FCN Working Papers 6/2009, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
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    40. Reinhard Madlener & Barbara Glensk, 2010. "Portfolio Impact of New Power Generation Investments of E.ON in the UK, Sweden and Germany," FCN Working Papers 17/2010, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
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    42. Reinhard Madlener & Johannes Ruschhaupt, 2011. "Modeling the Influence of Network Externalities and Quality on Market Shares of Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles," FCN Working Papers 5/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
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    46. Reinhard Madlener & Viktor Tomm, 2010. "Electricity Consumption of an Ageing Society: Empirical Evidence from a Swiss Household Survey," FCN Working Papers 24/2010, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    47. Christian-Simon Ernst & André Hackbarth & Reinhard Madlener & Benedikt Lunz & Dirk Uwe Sauer & Lutz Eckstein, 2010. "Battery Sizing for Serial Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles: A Model-Based Economic Analysis for Germany," FCN Working Papers 14/2010, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
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    50. Barbara Glensk & Reinhard Madlener, 2011. "Portfolio Selection Methods and their Empirical Applicability to Real Assets in Energy Markets," FCN Working Papers 11/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    51. Reinhard Madlener & Barbara Glensk & Paul Raymond, 2009. "Investigation of E.ON’s Power Generation Assets by Using Mean-Variance Portfolio Analysis," FCN Working Papers 12/2009, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
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    Keywords

    direct normal irradiance; DNI; irradiance forecast; model output statistics; production forecast; CS;
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