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Economic Assessment of a Concentrating Solar Power Forecasting System for Participation in the Spanish Electricity Market

Author

Listed:
  • Kraas, Birk

    (Solar Millennium AG)

  • Schroedter-Homscheidt, Marion

    (German Remote Sensing Data Center, German Aerospace Center (DLR))

  • Pulvermüller, Benedikt

    (Solar Millennium AG)

  • Madlener, Reinhard

    (E.ON Energy Research Center, Institute for Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN), RWTH Aachen University)

Abstract

Forecasts of power production are necessary for the electricity market participation of Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) plants. Deviations from the production schedule may lead to penalty charges. the mitigation impact on deviation penalties of an electricity production forecasting tool for Therefore, the accuracy of direct normal irradiance (DNI) forecasts is an important issue. This paper elaborates the 50 MWel parabolic trough plant Andasol 3 in Spain. A commercial DNI model output statistics (MOS) forecast for the period July 2007 to December 2009 is assessed and compared to the two-day persistence approach, which assumes yesterday’s weather conditions and electricity generation also for the following day. Forecasts are analyzed both with meteorological forecast verification methods and from the perspective of a power plant operator. Using MOS, penalty charges in the study period are reduced by 47.6% compared to the persistence case. Finally, typical error patterns of DNI forecasts and their financial impact are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Kraas, Birk & Schroedter-Homscheidt, Marion & Pulvermüller, Benedikt & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Economic Assessment of a Concentrating Solar Power Forecasting System for Participation in the Spanish Electricity Market," FCN Working Papers 12/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:fcnwpa:2011_012
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    32. Westner, Günther & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "The Impact of Modified EU ETS Allocation Principles on the Economics of CHP-based District Heating Networks," FCN Working Papers 4/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
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    34. Rohlfs, Wilko & Madlener, Reinhard, 2010. "Cost Effectiveness of Carbon Capture-Ready Coal Power Plants with Delayed Retrofit," FCN Working Papers 8/2010, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN), revised Dec 2010.
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    Keywords

    direct normal irradiance; DNI; irradiance forecast; model output statistics; production forecast; CSP-FoSyS; CSP; Andasol; plant simulation; renewable energy;
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