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Economic Assessment of a Concentrating Solar Power Forecasting System for Participation in the Spanish Electricity Market

Author Info

Listed author(s):
  • Kraas, Birk

    ()

    (Solar Millennium AG)

  • Schroedter-Homscheidt, Marion

    ()

    (German Remote Sensing Data Center, German Aerospace Center (DLR))

  • Pulvermüller, Benedikt

    ()

    (Solar Millennium AG)

  • Madlener, Reinhard

    ()

    (E.ON Energy Research Center, Institute for Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN), RWTH Aachen University)

Abstract

Forecasts of power production are necessary for the electricity market participation of Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) plants. Deviations from the production schedule may lead to penalty charges. the mitigation impact on deviation penalties of an electricity production forecasting tool for Therefore, the accuracy of direct normal irradiance (DNI) forecasts is an important issue. This paper elaborates the 50 MWel parabolic trough plant Andasol 3 in Spain. A commercial DNI model output statistics (MOS) forecast for the period July 2007 to December 2009 is assessed and compared to the two-day persistence approach, which assumes yesterday’s weather conditions and electricity generation also for the following day. Forecasts are analyzed both with meteorological forecast verification methods and from the perspective of a power plant operator. Using MOS, penalty charges in the study period are reduced by 47.6% compared to the persistence case. Finally, typical error patterns of DNI forecasts and their financial impact are discussed.

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Paper provided by E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN) in its series FCN Working Papers with number 12/2011.

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Length: 13 pages
Date of creation: May 2011
Handle: RePEc:ris:fcnwpa:2011_012
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.eonerc.rwth-aachen.de/fcn
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Keywords: direct normal irradiance; DNI; irradiance forecast; model output statistics; production forecast; CSP-FoSyS; CSP; Andasol; plant simulation; renewable energy;

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  1. Ghosh, Gaurav & Kwasnica, Anthony & Shortle, James, 2010. "A Laboratory Experiment to Compare Two Market Institutions for Emissions Trading," FCN Working Papers 18/2010, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  2. Madlener, Reinhard & Hauertmann, Maximilian, 2011. "Rebound Effects in German Residential Heating: Do Ownership and Income Matter?," FCN Working Papers 2/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  3. Westner, Günther & Madlener, Reinhard, 2012. "Investment in new power generation under uncertainty: Benefits of CHP vs. condensing plants in a copula-based analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 31-44.
  4. Rohlfs, Wilko & Madlener, Reinhard, 2010. "Valuation of CCS-Ready Coal-Fired Power Plants: A Multi-Dimensional Real Options Approach," FCN Working Papers 7/2010, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  5. Harmsen-van Hout, Marjolein J.W. & Dellaert, Benedict G.C. & Herings, P. Jean-Jacques, 2008. "Behavorial Effects in Individual Decisions of Network Formation," Research Memorandum 019, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  6. Holtermann, Timm & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Assessment of the technological development and economic potential of photobioreactors," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(5), pages 1906-1919, May.
  7. Georg Erber & Reinhard Madlener, 2009. "Impact of ICT and Human Skills on the European Financial Intermediation Sector," Chapters in SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.
  8. Madlener, Reinhard & Stoverink, Simon, 2012. "Power plant investments in the Turkish electricity sector: A real options approach taking into account market liberalization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 124-134.
  9. Michelsen, Carl Christian & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Homeowners' Preferences for Adopting Residential Heating Systems: A Discrete Choice Analysis for Germany," FCN Working Papers 9/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  10. Ghosh, Gaurav & Shortle, James, 2009. "Water Quality Trading when Nonpoint Pollution Loads are Stochastic," FCN Working Papers 10/2009, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  11. Garbuzova, Maria & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Towards an Efficient and Low-Carbon Economy Post-2012: Opportunities and Barriers for Foreign Companies in the Russian Market," FCN Working Papers 3/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN), revised Jul 2011.
  12. Tomm, Viktor & Madlener, Reinhard, 2010. "Appliance Endowment and User Behaviour by Age Group: Insights from a Swiss Micro-Survey on Residential Electricity Demand," FCN Working Papers 25/2010, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  13. Bellmann, Enno & Lang, Joachim & Madlener, Reinhard, 2010. "Cost Evaluation of Credit Risk Securitization in the Electricity Industry: Credit Default Acceptance vs. Margining Costs," FCN Working Papers 13/2010, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN), revised May 2011.
  14. Reinhard Madlener & Ilja Neustadt, 2010. "Renewable energy policy in the presence of innovation: does government pre-commitment matter?," SOI - Working Papers 1010, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich.
  15. Ghosh, Gaurav & Carriazo, Fernando, 2009. "A Comparison of Three Methods of Estimation in the Context of Spatial Modeling," FCN Working Papers 9/2009, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  16. Westner, Günther & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "The Impact of Modified EU ETS Allocation Principles on the Economics of CHP-based District Heating Networks," FCN Working Papers 4/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  17. Paulun, Tobias & Feess, Eberhard & Madlener, Reinhard, 2010. "Why Higher Price Sensitivity of Consumers May Increase Average Prices: An Analysis of the European Electricity Market," FCN Working Papers 16/2010, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  18. Rohlfs, Wilko & Madlener, Reinhard, 2010. "Cost Effectiveness of Carbon Capture-Ready Coal Power Plants with Delayed Retrofit," FCN Working Papers 8/2010, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN), revised Dec 2010.
  19. Glensk, Barbara & Madlener, Reinhard, 2010. "Fuzzy Portfolio Optimization for Power Generation Assets," FCN Working Papers 10/2010, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  20. Madlener, Reinhard & Glensk, Barbara & Weber, Veronika, 2011. "Fuzzy Portfolio Optimization of Onshore Wind Power Plants," FCN Working Papers 10/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN), revised Jul 2014.
  21. Harmsen - van Hout, Marjolein J.W. & Herings, P. Jean-Jacques & Dellaert, Benedict G.C., 2013. "Communication network formation with link specificity and value transferability," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 229(1), pages 199-211.
  22. Gampert, Markus & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Pan-European management of electricity portfolios: Risks and opportunities of contract bundling," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2855-2865, May.
  23. Bernstein, Ronald & Madlener, Reinhard, 2015. "Short- and long-run electricity demand elasticities at the subsectoral level: A cointegration analysis for German manufacturing industries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 178-187.
  24. Lang, Joachim & Madlener, Reinhard, 2010. "Portfolio Optimization for Power Plants: The Impact of Credit Risk Mitigation and Margining," FCN Working Papers 11/2010, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  25. Lohwasser, Richard & Madlener, Reinhard, 2009. "Simulation of the European Electricity Market and CCS Development with the HECTOR Model," FCN Working Papers 6/2009, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  26. Melchior, Tobias & Madlener, Reinhard, 2012. "Economic evaluation of IGCC plants with hot gas cleaning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 170-184.
  27. Lohwasser, Richard & Madlener, Reinhard, 2009. "Impact of CCS on the Economics of Coal-Fired Power Plants: Why Investment Costs Do and Efficiency Doesn’t Matter," FCN Working Papers 7/2009, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  28. Harmsen - van Hout, Marjolein J.W. & Herings, P. Jean-Jacques & Dellaert ,Benedict G.C., 2006. "The Structure of Online Consumer Communication Networks," Research Memorandum 028, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  29. Achtnicht, Martin, 2010. "Do environmental benefits matter? A choice experiment among house owners in Germany," ZEW Discussion Papers 10-094, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  30. Juckenack, Sören & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Optimal Time to Start Serial Production: The Case of the Direct Drive Wind Turbine of Siemens Wind Power A/S," FCN Working Papers 6/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  31. Madlener, Reinhard & Wenk, Christioph, 2008. "Efficient Investment Portfolios for the Swiss Electricity Supply Sector," FCN Working Papers 2/2008, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  32. Madlener, Reinhard & Glensk, Barbara, 2010. "Portfolio Impact of New Power Generation Investments of E.ON in the UK, Sweden and Germany," FCN Working Papers 17/2010, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  33. Hinrichs, Hauke & Madlener, Reinhard & Pearson, Peter, 2010. "Liberalisation of Germany’s Electricity System and the Ways Forward of the Unbundling Process: A Historical Perspective and an Outlook," FCN Working Papers 26/2010, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  34. Madlener, Reinhard & Ruschhaupt, Johannes, 2011. "Modeling the Influence of Network Externalities and Quality on Market Shares of Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles," FCN Working Papers 5/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  35. Ribaudo, Marc & Ghosh, Gaurav S. & Shortle, James S., 2009. "Do baseline requirements hinder trades in water quality trading programs?," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49258, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  36. Bernstein, Ronald & Madlener, Reinhard, 2008. "The Impact of Disaggregated ICT Capital on Electricity Intensity of Production: Econometric Analysis of Major European Industries," FCN Working Papers 4/2008, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  37. Bernstein, Ronald & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Responsiveness of Residential Electricity Demand in OECD Countries: A Panel Cointegation and Causality Analysis," FCN Working Papers 8/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  38. Kraemer, Christian & Madlener, Reinhard, 2009. "Using Fuzzy Real Options Valuation for Assessing Investments in NGCC and CCS Energy Conversion Technology," FCN Working Papers 3/2009, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  39. Madlener, Reinhard & Tomm, Viktor, 2010. "Electricity Consumption of an Ageing Society: Empirical Evidence from a Swiss Household Survey," FCN Working Papers 24/2010, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  40. Ernst, Christian-Simon & Hackbarth, André & Madlener, Reinhard & Lunz, Benedikt & Sauer, Dirk Uwe & Eckstein, Lutz, 2010. "Battery Sizing for Serial Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles: A Model-Based Economic Analysis for Germany," FCN Working Papers 14/2010, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN), revised Jun 2011.
  41. Omann, Ines & Kowalski, Katharina & Bohunovsky, Lisa & Madlener, Reinhard & Stagl, Sigrid, 2008. "The Influence of Social Preferences on Multi-Criteria Evaluation of Energy Scenarios," FCN Working Papers 3/2008, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  42. Lang, Joachim & Madlener, Reinhard, 2010. "Relevance of Risk Capital and Margining for the Valuation of Power Plants: Cash Requirements for Credit Risk Mitigation," FCN Working Papers 1/2010, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  43. Mazur, Christoph & Madlener, Reinhard, 2010. "Impact of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles and Charging Regimes on Power Generation Costs and Emissions in Germany," FCN Working Papers 20/2010, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  44. Madlener, Reinhard & Sicking, Stephan, 2011. "Assessing the Economic Potential of Microdrilling in Geothermal Exploration," FCN Working Papers 7/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  45. Michelsen, Carl Christian & Madlener, Reinhard, 2010. "Integrated Theoretical Framework for a Homeowner's Decision in Favor of an Innovative Residential Heating System," FCN Working Papers 2/2010, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  46. Madlener, Reinhard & Mathar, Tobias, 2009. "Development Trends and Economics of Concentrating Solar Power Generation Technologies: A Comparative Analysis," FCN Working Papers 1/2009, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN), revised Sep 2010.
  47. Lüschen, Andreas & Madlener, Reinhard, 2010. "Economics of Biomass Co-Firing in New Hard Coal Power Plants in Germany," FCN Working Papers 23/2010, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  48. Glensk, Barbara & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Portfolio Selection Methods and their Empirical Applicability to Real Assets in Energy Markets," FCN Working Papers 11/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  49. Madlener, Reinhard & Glensk, Barbara & Raymond, Paul, 2009. "Investigation of E.ON’s Power Generation Assets by Using Mean-Variance Portfolio Analysis," FCN Working Papers 12/2009, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
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Cited by:

  1. Dergiades, Theologos & Madlener, Reinhard & Christofidou, Georgia, 2012. "The Nexus between Natural Gas Spot and Futures Prices at NYMEX: Do Weather Shocks and Non-Linear Causality in Low Frequencies Matter?," FCN Working Papers 17/2012, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN), revised Sep 2013.
  2. Rohlfs, Wilko & Madlener, Reinhard, 2013. "Challenges in the Evaluation of Ultra-Long-Lived Projects: Risk Premia for Projects with Eternal Returns or Costs," FCN Working Papers 13/2013, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  3. Rohlfs, Wilko & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Multi-Commodity Real Options Analysis of Power Plant Investments: Discounting Endogenous Risk Structures," FCN Working Papers 22/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  4. Garnier, Ernesto & Madlener, Reinhard, 2014. "Balancing Forecast Errors in Continuous-Trade Intraday Markets," FCN Working Papers 2/2014, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  5. Harmsen - van Hout, Marjolein & Ghosh, Gaurav & Madlener, Reinhard, 2013. "The Impact of Green Framing on Consumers’ Valuations of Energy-Saving Measures," FCN Working Papers 7/2013, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  6. Harmsen - van Hout, Marjolein & Ghosh, Gaurav & Madlener, Reinhard, 2013. "An Evaluation of Attribute Anchoring Bias in a Choice Experimental Setting," FCN Working Papers 6/2013, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  7. Ruhnau, Oliver & Hennig, Patrick & Madlener, Reinhard, 2015. "Economic Implications of Enhanced Forecast Accuracy: The Case of Photovoltaic Feed-In Forecasts," FCN Working Papers 6/2015, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).

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