IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Valuation of CCS-Ready Coal-Fired Power Plants: A Multi-Dimensional Real Options Approach

  • Rohlfs, Wilko


    (Chair of Heat and Mass Transfer, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, RWTH Aachen University)

  • Madlener, Reinhard


    (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN))

In this paper, we develop a multi-factor real options model for a two-stage investment problem where a coal-fired power plant is later retrofitted with carbon capture and storage (CCS). A capture-ready power plant with lower retrofit costs is compared with a conventional one and higher CCS retrofit costs. The stochastic variables considered are the price of electricity, the price of CO2 permits, capturing, transporting and storing (CTS) costs and CCS retrofit investment costs. Fuel costs are disregarded due to the constant boiler size in case of a retrofit, resulting in constant fuel consumption but lower electricity output of the CCS plant. Two retrofit options that reduce the power plant’s net efficiency from 46% to 30% and 35%, respectively, and an integrated CCS power plant with an efficiency of 38.5% are investigated. In a numerical simulation with realistic parameterization, we find a low probability for a retrofit even after fifteen to twenty years, caused by the high uncertainty and the adverse impact of the electricity price and the CO2 permit price. This renders the capture-ready option unattractive and calls for investments in conventional coal-fired power plants with later CCS investments at higher costs than for the case of a capture ready pre-installation.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
File Function: Full text
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN) in its series FCN Working Papers with number 7/2010.

in new window

Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ris:fcnwpa:2010_007
Contact details of provider: Web page:

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Olsen, Trond E. & Stensland, Gunnar, 1992. "On optimal timing of investment when cost components are additive and follow geometric diffusions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 39-51, January.
  2. Daskalakis, George & Markellos, Raphael N., 2009. "Are electricity risk premia affected by emission allowance prices? Evidence from the EEX, Nord Pool and Powernext," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2594-2604, July.
  3. Rohlfs, Wilko & Madlener, Reinhard, 2010. "Cost Effectiveness of Carbon Capture-Ready Coal Power Plants with Delayed Retrofit," FCN Working Papers 8/2010, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN), revised Dec 2010.
  4. Luis M. Abadie & Mikel González-Eguino & José M. Chamorro, 2010. "Optimal Abandonment of Coal-Fired Stations in the EU," Working Papers 2010-07, BC3.
  5. Fleten, Stein-Erik & Näsäkkälä, Erkka, 2010. "Gas-fired power plants: Investment timing, operating flexibility and CO2 capture," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 805-816, July.
  6. Sekar, Ram C. & Parsons, John E. & Herzog, Howard J. & Jacoby, Henry D., 2007. "Future carbon regulations and current investments in alternative coal-fired power plant technologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 1064-1074, February.
  7. Yaozhong Hu & Bernt Øksendal, 1998. "Optimal time to invest when the price processes are geometric Brownian motions," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 295-310.
  8. McDonald, Robert & Siegel, Daniel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(4), pages 707-27, November.
  9. GAHUNGU, Joachim & SMEERS, Yves, 2009. "Multi-assets real options," CORE Discussion Papers 2009051, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:fcnwpa:2010_007. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Hendrik Schmitz)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.