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Uncertain Productivity Growth and the Choice between FDI and Export

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  • Davide Sala
  • Erdal Yalcin

Abstract

The underlying model analyzes the first time foreign market entry decision of a representative investor who can choose between export and FDI. The model combines the proximity-concentration trade-off framework with the real option methodology and sheds light on the effects of productivity growth. On the basis of a Geometric Brownian motion, three different productivity scenarios are considered (no growth, deterministic growth, uncertain growth) and opposed to each other. The introduction of productivity growth increases the likeliness of first time market entry through FDI. If the firm is confronted with uncertain productivity growth, market entry through FDI increases even further. Uncertainty is identified as a compounding force for the derived growth effects. The findings contribute to the static general equilibrium models which neglect intertemporal selection effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Davide Sala & Erdal Yalcin, 2010. "Uncertain Productivity Growth and the Choice between FDI and Export," DEGIT Conference Papers c015_030, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
  • Handle: RePEc:deg:conpap:c015_030
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    Cited by:

    1. Sourafel Girma & Sandra Lancheros & Alejandro Riaño, 2016. "Global Engagement and Returns Volatility," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(6), pages 814-833, December.
    2. Davide Sala & Erdal Yalcin, 2015. "Export Experience of Managers and the Internationalisation of Firms," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(7), pages 1064-1089, July.
    3. Naudé, Wim & Gries, Thomas & Bilkic, Natasa, 2013. "Firm-Level Heterogeneity and the Decision to Export: A Real Option Approach," IZA Discussion Papers 7346, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Export; FDI; Uncertain Productivity Growth; Real Option Approach;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business

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