IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tiu/tiucen/9e05d125-86f6-4549-9d49-9b73bcdae3fd.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Investment Decisions with Two-Factor Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Compernolle, T.
  • Huisman, Kuno

    (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research)

  • Kort, Peter M.

    (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research)

  • Lavrutich, Maria

    (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research)

  • Nunes, Claudia
  • Thijssen, J.J.J.

    (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research)

Abstract

This paper considers investment problems in real options with non-homogeneous two-factor uncertainty. We derive some analytical properties of the resulting optimal stopping problem and present a finite difference algorithm to approximate the firm’s value function and optimal exercise boundary. An important message in our paper is that the frequently applied quasi-analytical approach underestimates the impact of uncertainty. This is caused by the fact that the quasi-analytical solution does not satisfy the partial differential equation that governs the value function. As a result, the quasi-analytical approach may wrongly advise to invest in a substantial part of the state space.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Compernolle, T. & Huisman, Kuno & Kort, Peter M. & Lavrutich, Maria & Nunes, Claudia & Thijssen, J.J.J., 2018. "Investment Decisions with Two-Factor Uncertainty," Discussion Paper 2018-003, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:tiu:tiucen:9e05d125-86f6-4549-9d49-9b73bcdae3fd
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://pure.uvt.nl/ws/portalfiles/portal/20337011/2018_003.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yaozhong Hu & Bernt Øksendal, 1998. "Optimal time to invest when the price processes are geometric Brownian motions," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 295-310.
    2. Kuno J.M. Huisman & Peter M. Kort, 2015. "Strategic capacity investment under uncertainty," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 46(2), pages 376-408, June.
    3. Compernolle, T. & Welkenhuysen, K. & Huisman, K. & Piessens, K. & Kort, P., 2017. "Off-shore enhanced oil recovery in the North Sea: The impact of price uncertainty on the investment decisions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 123-137.
    4. Dammann, Felix & Ferrari, Giorgio, 2021. "On an Irreversible Investment Problem with Two-Factor Uncertainty," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 646, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
    5. Felix Dammann & Giorgio Ferrari, 2021. "On an Irreversible Investment Problem with Two-Factor Uncertainty," Papers 2103.08258, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2021.
    6. Li, Longxi & Cao, Xilin, 2022. "Comprehensive effectiveness assessment of energy storage incentive mechanisms for PV-ESS projects based on compound real options," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PA).
    7. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    8. Adkins, Roger & Paxson, Dean, 2017. "Replacement decisions with multiple stochastic values and depreciation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 257(1), pages 174-184.
    9. Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
    10. Lange, Rutger-Jan & Ralph, Daniel & Støre, Kristian, 2020. "Real-Option Valuation in Multiple Dimensions Using Poisson Optional Stopping Times," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 55(2), pages 653-677, March.
    11. L. Alili & A. E. Kyprianou, 2005. "Some remarks on first passage of Levy processes, the American put and pasting principles," Papers math/0508487, arXiv.org.
    12. Deeney, Peter & Cummins, Mark & Heintz, Katharina & Pryce, Mary T., 2021. "A real options based decision support tool for R&D investment: Application to CO2 recycling technology," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 289(2), pages 696-711.
    13. Roger Adkins & Dean Paxson, 2016. "Subsidies for Renewable Energy Facilities under Uncertainty," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 84(2), pages 222-250, March.
    14. Bar-Ilan, Avner & Strange, William C., 1999. "The Timing and Intensity of Investment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 57-77, January.
    15. Olsen, Trond E. & Stensland, Gunnar, 1992. "On optimal timing of investment when cost components are additive and follow geometric diffusions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 39-51, January.
    16. Fleten, Stein-Erik & Linnerud, Kristin & Molnár, Peter & Tandberg Nygaard, Maria, 2016. "Green electricity investment timing in practice: Real options or net present value?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(P1), pages 498-506.
    17. Støre, Kristian & Fleten, Stein-Erik & Hagspiel, Verena & Nunes, Cláudia, 2018. "Switching from oil to gas production in a depleting field," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 271(2), pages 710-719.
    18. Boomsma, Trine Krogh & Linnerud, Kristin, 2015. "Market and policy risk under different renewable electricity support schemes," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 435-448.
    19. Somayeh Heydari & Nick Ovenden & Afzal Siddiqui, 2012. "Real options analysis of investment in carbon capture and sequestration technology," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 109-138, February.
    20. Nunes, Cláudia & Pimentel, Rita, 2017. "Analytical solution for an investment problem under uncertainties with shocks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 259(3), pages 1054-1063.
    21. Dangl, Thomas, 1999. "Investment and capacity choice under uncertain demand," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 415-428, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Arve, Malin & Zwart, Gijsbert, 2023. "Optimal procurement and investment in new technologies under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    2. Dammann, Felix & Ferrari, Giorgio, 2021. "On an Irreversible Investment Problem with Two-Factor Uncertainty," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 646, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
    3. Esparcia, Carlos & Jareño, Francisco & Umar, Zaghum, 2022. "Revisiting the safe haven role of Gold across time and frequencies during the COVID-19 pandemic," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    4. Lorenzo Nalin & Giuliano Toshiro Yajima, 2021. "Commodities fluctuations, cross border flows and financial innovation: A stock‐flow analysis," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(3), pages 539-579, July.
    5. Felix Dammann & Giorgio Ferrari, 2021. "On an Irreversible Investment Problem with Two-Factor Uncertainty," Papers 2103.08258, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2021.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Barbosa, Luciana & Nunes, Cláudia & Rodrigues, Artur & Sardinha, Alberto, 2020. "Feed-in tariff contract schemes and regulatory uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 287(1), pages 331-347.
    2. Nagy, Roel L.G. & Hagspiel, Verena & Kort, Peter M., 2021. "Green capacity investment under subsidy withdrawal risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    3. Huberts, Nick F.D. & Rossi Silveira, Rafael, 2023. "How economic depreciation shapes the relationship of uncertainty with investments’ size & timing," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    4. Simona Bigerna & Xingang Wen & Verena Hagspiel & Peter M. Kort, 2018. "Green Electricity Investments: Environmental Target and the Optimal Subsidy," Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, Finanza e Statistica 29/2018, Università di Perugia, Dipartimento Economia.
    5. Felix Dammann & Giorgio Ferrari, 2021. "On an Irreversible Investment Problem with Two-Factor Uncertainty," Papers 2103.08258, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2021.
    6. Dammann, Felix & Ferrari, Giorgio, 2021. "On an Irreversible Investment Problem with Two-Factor Uncertainty," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 646, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
    7. De Giovanni, Domenico & Massabò, Ivar, 2018. "Capacity investment under uncertainty: The effect of volume flexibility," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 165-176.
    8. Balter, Anne G. & Huisman, Kuno J.M. & Kort, Peter M., 2022. "New insights in capacity investment under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    9. Adkins, Roger & Paxson, Dean, 2019. "Rescaling-contraction with a lower cost technology when revenue declines," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 277(2), pages 574-586.
    10. Balter, Anne G. & Huisman, Kuno J.M. & Kort, Peter M., 2022. "Effects of creative destruction on the size and timing of an investment," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 252(C).
    11. Kort, Peter M. & Murto, Pauli & Pawlina, Grzegorz, 2010. "Uncertainty and stepwise investment," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 196-203, April.
    12. Xingang Wen & Peter M. Kort & Dolf Talman, 2017. "Volume flexibility and capacity investment: a real options approach," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 68(12), pages 1633-1646, December.
    13. Nunes, Cláudia & Oliveira, Carlos & Pimentel, Rita, 2021. "Quasi-analytical solution of an investment problem with decreasing investment cost due to technological innovations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    14. Ebina, Takeshi & Matsushima, Noriaki & Nishide, Katsumasa, 2022. "Demand uncertainty, product differentiation, and entry timing under spatial competition," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 303(1), pages 286-297.
    15. Guerra, Manuel & Kort, Peter & Nunes, Cláudia & Oliveira, Carlos, 2018. "Hysteresis due to irreversible exit: Addressing the option to mothball," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 69-83.
    16. Fontini, Fulvio & Vargiolu, Tiziano & Zormpas, Dimitrios, 2021. "Investing in electricity production under a reliability options scheme," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    17. GAHUNGU, Joachim & SMEERS, Yves, 2011. "A real options model for electricity capacity expansion," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2011044, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    18. Wen, Xingang & Hagspiel, V. & Kort, Peter M., 2017. "Subsidized Capacity Investment under Uncertainty," Other publications TiSEM 4c7a7c87-a34c-4934-a910-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    19. Maarten van Oosterhout & Gijsbert Zwart, 2023. "Distortions in Investment Timing and Quantity in Real Options with Asymmetric Information," De Economist, Springer, vol. 171(4), pages 347-365, December.
    20. Finjord, Fredrik & Hagspiel, Verena & Lavrutich, Maria & Tangen, Marius, 2018. "The impact of Norwegian-Swedish green certificate scheme on investment behavior: A wind energy case study," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 373-389.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    investment analysis; optimal stopping time problem; two-factor uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tiu:tiucen:9e05d125-86f6-4549-9d49-9b73bcdae3fd. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Richard Broekman (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://center.uvt.nl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.