IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v89y2015icp435-448.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Market and policy risk under different renewable electricity support schemes

Author

Listed:
  • Boomsma, Trine Krogh
  • Linnerud, Kristin

Abstract

Worldwide, renewable electricity projects are granted production support to ensure competitiveness. Depending on the design of these support schemes, the cash inflows to investment projects will be more or less exposed to fluctuations in electricity and/or subsidy prices. Furthermore, as renewable electricity technologies mature, there is a possibility that the current support scheme will be terminated or revised in ways that make it less generous or more in line with market mechanism.

Suggested Citation

  • Boomsma, Trine Krogh & Linnerud, Kristin, 2015. "Market and policy risk under different renewable electricity support schemes," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 435-448.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:89:y:2015:i:c:p:435-448
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2015.05.114
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544215007367
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fuss, Sabine & Szolgayova, Jana & Obersteiner, Michael & Gusti, Mykola, 2008. "Investment under market and climate policy uncertainty," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 85(8), pages 708-721, August.
    2. McKenna, R. & Hollnaicher, S. & Fichtner, W., 2014. "Cost-potential curves for onshore wind energy: A high-resolution analysis for Germany," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 103-115.
    3. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    4. Walls, W.D. & Rusco, Frank W. & Ludwigson, Jon, 2007. "Power plant investment in restructured markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1403-1413.
    5. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474, October.
    6. Maxwell, Christian & Davison, Matt, 2014. "Using real option analysis to quantify ethanol policy impact on the firm's entry into and optimal operation of corn ethanol facilities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 140-151.
    7. Yang, Ming & Blyth, William & Bradley, Richard & Bunn, Derek & Clarke, Charlie & Wilson, Tom, 2008. "Evaluating the power investment options with uncertainty in climate policy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1933-1950, July.
    8. Shahnazari, Mahdi & McHugh, Adam & Maybee, Bryan & Whale, Jonathan, 2014. "Evaluation of power investment decisions under uncertain carbon policy: A case study for converting coal fired steam turbine to combined cycle gas turbine plants in Australia," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 271-279.
    9. Merton, Robert C., 1976. "Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 125-144.
    10. Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
    11. Zhou, Wenji & Zhu, Bing & Chen, Dingjiang & Zhao, Fangxian & Fei, Weiyang, 2014. "How policy choice affects investment in low-carbon technology: The case of CO2 capture in indirect coal liquefaction in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 670-679.
    12. Helen Weeds, 2002. "Strategic Delay in a Real Options Model of R&D Competition," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(3), pages 729-747.
    13. Barroso, Manuel Monjas & Iniesta, José Balibrea, 2014. "A valuation of wind power projects in Germany using real regulatory options," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 422-433.
    14. del Río, Pablo & Mir-Artigues, Pere, 2012. "Support for solar PV deployment in Spain: Some policy lessons," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(8), pages 5557-5566.
    15. Wang, Xingwei & Cai, Yanpeng & Dai, Chao, 2014. "Evaluating China's biomass power production investment based on a policy benefit real options model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 751-761.
    16. Fan, Lin & Hobbs, Benjamin F. & Norman, Catherine S., 2010. "Risk aversion and CO2 regulatory uncertainty in power generation investment: Policy and modeling implications," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 193-208, November.
    17. Laurikka, Harri, 2006. "Option value of gasification technology within an emissions trading scheme," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(18), pages 3916-3928, December.
    18. Zhu, Lei & Fan, Ying, 2013. "Modelling the investment in carbon capture retrofits of pulverized coal-fired plants," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 66-75.
    19. Boomsma, Trine Krogh & Meade, Nigel & Fleten, Stein-Erik, 2012. "Renewable energy investments under different support schemes: A real options approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 220(1), pages 225-237.
    20. Adkins, Roger & Paxson, Dean, 2011. "Renewing Assets with Uncertain Revenues and Operating Costs," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(3), pages 785-813, June.
    21. Zhou, Wenji & Zhu, Bing & Fuss, Sabine & Szolgayová, Jana & Obersteiner, Michael & Fei, Weiyang, 2010. "Uncertainty modeling of CCS investment strategy in China's power sector," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(7), pages 2392-2400, July.
    22. Jensen, S. G. & Skytte, K., 2002. "Interactions between the power and green certificate markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 425-435, April.
    23. Linnerud, Kristin & Andersson, Ane Marte & Fleten, Stein-Erik, 2014. "Investment timing under uncertain renewable energy policy: An empirical study of small hydropower projects," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 154-164.
    24. Lemming, Jacob, 2003. "Financial risks for green electricity investors and producers in a tradable green certificate market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 21-32, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bigerna, Simona & Wen, Xingang & Hagspiel, Verena & Kort, Peter M., 2019. "Green electricity investments: Environmental target and the optimal subsidy," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 279(2), pages 635-644.
    2. Xin-gang Zhao & Yu-zhuo Zhang & Yan-bin Li, 2018. "The Evolution of Renewable Energy Price Policies Based on Improved Bass Model: A System Dynamics (SD) Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(6), pages 1-1, May.
    3. Barbosa, Luciana & Nunes, Cláudia & Rodrigues, Artur & Sardinha, Alberto, 2020. "Feed-in tariff contract schemes and regulatory uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 287(1), pages 331-347.
    4. Guerra, Manuel & Kort, Peter & Nunes, Cláudia & Oliveira, Carlos, 2018. "Hysteresis due to irreversible exit: Addressing the option to mothball," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 69-83.
    5. Linnerud, Kristin & Simonsen, Morten, 2017. "Swedish-Norwegian tradable green certificates: Scheme design flaws and perceived investment barriers," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 560-578.
    6. Meng, Ming & Mander, Sarah & Zhao, Xiaoli & Niu, Dongxiao, 2016. "Have market-oriented reforms improved the electricity generation efficiency of China's thermal power industry? An empirical analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 734-741.
    7. Wen, Xingang & Hagspiel, V. & Kort, Peter, 2017. "Subsidized Capacity Investment under Uncertainty," Other publications TiSEM 4c7a7c87-a34c-4934-a910-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    8. Compernolle, T. & Huisman, Kuno & Kort, Peter & Lavrutich, Maria & Nunes, Claudia & Thijssen, J.J.J., 2018. "Investment Decisions with Two-Factor Uncertainty," Other publications TiSEM 9e05d125-86f6-4549-9d49-9, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    9. Galina S. CHEBOTAREVA & Wadim STRIELKOWSKI & Viktor A. BLAGININ, 2019. "The renewable energy market: Companies’ development and profitability," Upravlenets, Ural State University of Economics, vol. 10(3), pages 58-69, July.
    10. Fleten, Stein-Erik & Linnerud, Kristin & Molnár, Peter & Tandberg Nygaard, Maria, 2016. "Green electricity investment timing in practice: Real options or net present value?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(P1), pages 498-506.
    11. Hustveit, Magne & Frogner, Jens Sveen & Fleten, Stein-Erik, 2017. "Tradable green certificates for renewable support: The role of expectations and uncertainty," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 1717-1727.
    12. Yiju Ma & Kevin Swandi & Archie Chapman & Gregor Verbic, 2019. "Multi-Stage Compound Real Options Valuation in Residential PV-Battery Investment," Papers 1910.09132, arXiv.org.
    13. Kozlova, Mariia & Fleten, Stein-Erik & Hagspiel, Verena, 2019. "Investment timing and capacity choice under rate-of-return regulation for renewable energy support," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 591-601.
    14. Levin, Todd & Kwon, Jonghwan & Botterud, Audun, 2019. "The long-term impacts of carbon and variable renewable energy policies on electricity markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 53-71.
    15. Romano, Teresa & Fumagalli, Elena, 2018. "Greening the power generation sector: Understanding the role of uncertainty," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 272-286.
    16. Sarah Hafner & Olivia James & Aled Jones, 2019. "A Scoping Review of Barriers to Investment in Climate Change Solutions," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 11(11), pages 1-1, June.
    17. Barbosa, Luciana & Ferrão, Paulo & Rodrigues, Artur & Sardinha, Alberto, 2018. "Feed-in tariffs with minimum price guarantees and regulatory uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 517-541.
    18. Helgesen, Per Ivar & Tomasgard, Asgeir, 2018. "An equilibrium market power model for power markets and tradable green certificates, including Kirchhoff's Laws and Nash-Cournot competition," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 270-288.
    19. Kozlova, Mariia, 2017. "Real option valuation in renewable energy literature: Research focus, trends and design," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 180-196.
    20. Conrad, Jon M. & Nøstbakken, Linda, 2018. "Innovation and site quality: Implications for the timing of investments in renewable energy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 1173-1180.
    21. Ma, Yiju & Swandi, Kevin & Chapman, Archie C. & Verbič, Gregor, 2020. "Multi-stage compound real options valuation in residential PV-Battery investment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    22. Detemple, Jerome & Kitapbayev, Yerkin, 2020. "The value of green energy under regulation uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    23. Finjord, Fredrik & Hagspiel, Verena & Lavrutich, Maria & Tangen, Marius, 2018. "The impact of Norwegian-Swedish green certificate scheme on investment behavior: A wind energy case study," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 373-389.
    24. Sendstad, Lars Hegnes & Chronopoulos, Michail, 2020. "Sequential investment in renewable energy technologies under policy uncertainty," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    25. Dalby, Peder A.O. & Gillerhaugen, Gisle R. & Hagspiel, Verena & Leth-Olsen, Tord & Thijssen, Jacco J.J., 2018. "Green investment under policy uncertainty and Bayesian learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 1262-1281.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:89:y:2015:i:c:p:435-448. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Haili He). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.