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Risk Aversion and CO2 Regulatory Uncertainty in Power Generation Investment: Policy and Modeling Implications

Author

Listed:
  • Lin Fan

    (Department of Geography and Environmental Engineering The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, USA)

  • Benjamin F. Hobbs

    (Electricity Policy Research Group, Department of Economics University of Cambridge)

  • Catherine S. Norman

    (Department of Geography and Environmental Engineering The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, U.S.A)

Abstract

We consider a simulation of risk-averse producers when making investment decisions in a competitive energy market, who face uncertainty about future regulation of carbon dioxide emissions. Investments are made under regulatory uncertainty; then the regulatory state is revealed and producers realize returns. We consider anticipated taxes, grandfathered permits and auctioned permits and show that some anticipated policies increase investment in the relatively dirty technology. Beliefs about the policy instrument that will be used to price carbon may be as important as certainty that carbon will be priced. More generally, a failure to consider risk aversion may bias policy analysis for the power sector.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Lin Fan & Benjamin F. Hobbs & Catherine S. Norman, 2010. "Risk Aversion and CO2 Regulatory Uncertainty in Power Generation Investment: Policy and Modeling Implications," Working Papers EPRG 1014, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    • Handle: RePEc:enp:wpaper:eprg1014
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    JEL classification:

    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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