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Risk aversion and CO2 regulatory uncertainty in power generation investment: Policy and modeling implications

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  • Fan, Lin
  • Hobbs, Benjamin F.
  • Norman, Catherine S.

Abstract

We consider a simulation of risk-averse producers when making investment decisions in a competitive energy market, who face uncertainty about future regulation of carbon dioxide emissions. Investments are made under regulatory uncertainty; then the regulatory state is revealed and producers realize returns. We consider anticipated taxes, grandfathered permits and auctioned permits and show that some anticipated policies increase investment in the relatively dirty technology. Beliefs about the policy instrument that will be used to price carbon may be as important as certainty that carbon will be priced. More generally, a failure to consider risk aversion may bias policy analysis for the power sector.

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  • Fan, Lin & Hobbs, Benjamin F. & Norman, Catherine S., 2010. "Risk aversion and CO2 regulatory uncertainty in power generation investment: Policy and modeling implications," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 193-208, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeeman:v:60:y:2010:i:3:p:193-208
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Michael Pahle, Kai Lessmann, Ottmar Edenhofer, and Nico Bauer, 2013. "Investments in Imperfect Power Markets under Carbon Pricing: A Case Study Based Analysis," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    2. Pahle, Michael & Fan, Lin & Schill, Wolf-Peter, 2011. "How Emission Certificate Allocations Distort Fossil Investments: The German Example," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - German National Library of Economics, pages 1975-1987.
    3. Meunier, Guy, 2013. "Risk aversion and technology mix in an electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 866-874.
    4. Parkinson, Simon C. & Djilali, Ned, 2015. "Long-term energy planning with uncertain environmental performance metrics," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 402-412.
    5. Sunderkötter, Malte & Weber, Christoph, 2012. "Valuing fuel diversification in power generation capacity planning," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1664-1674.
    6. Guy Meunier, 2014. "Risk Aversion and Technology Portfolios," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 44(4), pages 347-365, June.
    7. van der Weijde, Adriaan Hendrik & Hobbs, Benjamin F., 2012. "The economics of planning electricity transmission to accommodate renewables: Using two-stage optimisation to evaluate flexibility and the cost of disregarding uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 2089-2101.
    8. Mulder, Machiel & Scholtens, Bert, 2016. "A plant-level analysis of the spill-over effects of the German Energiewende," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 1259-1271.
    9. Harrison Fell & Dallas Burtraw & Richard Morgenstern & Karen Palmer, 2012. "Climate Policy Design with Correlated Uncertainties in Offset Supply and Abatement Cost," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 88(3), pages 589-611.
    10. Choi, Dong Gu & Thomas, Valerie M., 2012. "An electricity generation planning model incorporating demand response," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 429-441.
    11. George A. Gonzalez, 2016. "Transforming Energy: Solving Climate Change with Technology Policy . New York : Cambridge University Press . 360 pages. ISBN 9781107614970, $29.99 paperback. Anthony Patt , 2015 ," Review of Policy Research, Policy Studies Organization, vol. 33(1), pages 111-113, January.
    12. Olivier Massol & Omer Rifaat, 2016. "Phasing out the U.S. Federal Helium Reserve: Policy insights from a world helium model," Working Papers 2016.29, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
    13. Fan, Lin & Norman, Catherine S. & Patt, Anthony G., 2012. "Electricity capacity investment under risk aversion: A case study of coal, gas, and concentrated solar power," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 54-61.
    14. Donatella Baiardi & Matteo Manera & Mario Menegatti, 2014. "The Effects of Environmental Risk on Consumption: an Empirical Analysis on the Mediterranean Countries," Working Papers 271, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2014.
    15. Boomsma, Trine Krogh & Linnerud, Kristin, 2015. "Market and policy risk under different renewable electricity support schemes," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 435-448.
    16. Pierre-André Jouvet & Frédéric Lantz & Elodie Le Cadre, 2011. "The bioenergies development: the role of biofuels and the CO2 price," Working Papers 2011/02, INRA, Economie Publique.
    17. Munoz, Francisco D. & van der Weijde, Adriaan Hendrik & Hobbs, Benjamin F. & Watson, Jean-Paul, 2017. "Does risk aversion affect transmission and generation planning? A Western North America case study," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 213-225.
    18. Apergis, Nicholas & Lau, Marco Chi Keung, 2015. "Structural breaks and electricity prices: Further evidence on the role of climate policy uncertainties in the Australian electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 176-182.
    19. Chen, Liang & Kettunen, Janne, 2017. "Is certainty in carbon policy better than uncertainty?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 258(1), pages 230-243.
    20. Brouwer, Anne Sjoerd & van den Broek, Machteld & Özdemir, Özge & Koutstaal, Paul & Faaij, André, 2016. "Business case uncertainty of power plants in future energy systems with wind power," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 237-256.
    21. Massol, O. & Rifaat, O., 2016. "Phasing out the U.S. Federal Helium Reserve: Policy insights from a world helium model," Working Papers 16/03, Department of Economics, City University London.

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