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Analysis of multi-pollutant policies for the U.S. power sector under technology and policy uncertainty using MARKAL

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  • Hu, Ming-Che
  • Hobbs, Benjamin F.

Abstract

Investments in power generation, pollution controls, and electricity end use equipment are made in the face of uncertainty. Unanticipated events can cause regret—commitments that in retrospect were the wrong choices. We analyze how three uncertainties—electricity demand growth, natural gas prices, and power sector greenhouse gas regulations—could affect electric power sector investment decisions and costs in the U.S. over the next four decades. The effect of multi-pollutant regulations such as the Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) upon these decisions and costs is also considered.

Suggested Citation

  • Hu, Ming-Che & Hobbs, Benjamin F., 2010. "Analysis of multi-pollutant policies for the U.S. power sector under technology and policy uncertainty using MARKAL," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 5430-5442.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:35:y:2010:i:12:p:5430-5442
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2010.07.001
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    Cited by:

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    10. Sarica, Kemal & Tyner, Wallace E., 2013. "Alternative policy impacts on US GHG emissions and energy security: A hybrid modeling approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 40-50.
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    12. John Bistline & John Weyant, 2013. "Electric sector investments under technological and policy-related uncertainties: a stochastic programming approach," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 121(2), pages 143-160, November.
    13. van der Weijde, Adriaan Hendrik & Hobbs, Benjamin F., 2012. "The economics of planning electricity transmission to accommodate renewables: Using two-stage optimisation to evaluate flexibility and the cost of disregarding uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 2089-2101.
    14. García-Gusano, Diego & Espegren, Kari & Lind, Arne & Kirkengen, Martin, 2016. "The role of the discount rates in energy systems optimisation models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 56-72.
    15. Mirkhani, Sh. & Saboohi, Y., 2012. "Stochastic modeling of the energy supply system with uncertain fuel price – A case of emerging technologies for distributed power generation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 668-674.
    16. Hu, Ming-Che & Lu, Su-Ying & Chen, Yen-Haw, 2016. "Stochastic programming and market equilibrium analysis of microgrids energy management systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 662-670.
    17. Mondal, Md Alam Hossain & Ringler, Claudia, 2020. "Long-term optimization of regional power sector development: Potential for cooperation in the Eastern Nile region?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    18. Chen, Hao & Tang, Bao-Jun & Liao, Hua & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2016. "A multi-period power generation planning model incorporating the non-carbon external costs: A case study of China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 1333-1345.
    19. Svensson, Elin & Strömberg, Ann-Brith & Patriksson, Michael, 2011. "A model for optimization of process integration investments under uncertainty," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 2733-2746.
    20. Bistline, John E., 2015. "Electric sector capacity planning under uncertainty: Climate policy and natural gas in the US," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 236-251.
    21. Shang, Yizi & Hei, Pengfei & Lu, Shibao & Shang, Ling & Li, Xiaofei & Wei, Yongping & Jia, Dongdong & Jiang, Dong & Ye, Yuntao & Gong, Jiaguo & Lei, Xiaohui & Hao, Mengmeng & Qiu, Yaqin & Liu, Jiahong, 2018. "China’s energy-water nexus: Assessing water conservation synergies of the total coal consumption cap strategy until 2050," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 643-660.
    22. Vithayasrichareon, Peerapat & MacGill, Iain F., 2012. "A Monte Carlo based decision-support tool for assessing generation portfolios in future carbon constrained electricity industries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 374-392.
    23. Usher, Will & Strachan, Neil, 2012. "Critical mid-term uncertainties in long-term decarbonisation pathways," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 433-444.
    24. Nahmmacher, Paul & Schmid, Eva & Pahle, Michael & Knopf, Brigitte, 2016. "Strategies against shocks in power systems – An analysis for the case of Europe," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 455-465.

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