IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v30y2008i4p1831-1849.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Fuel mix diversification incentives in liberalized electricity markets: A Mean-Variance Portfolio theory approach

Author

Listed:
  • Roques, Fabien A.
  • Newbery, David M.
  • Nuttall, William J.

Abstract

Monte Carlo simulations of gas, coal and nuclear plant investment returns are used as inputs of a Mean-Variance Portfolio optimization to identify optimal base load generation portfolios for large electricity generators in liberalized electricity markets. We study the impact of fuel, electricity, and CO2 price risks and their degree of correlation on optimal plant portfolios. High degrees of correlation between gas and electricity prices - as observed in most European markets - reduce gas plant risks and make portfolios dominated by gas plant more attractive. Long-term power purchase contracts and/or a lower cost of capital can rebalance optimal portfolios towards more diversified portfolios with larger shares of nuclear and coal plants.

Suggested Citation

  • Roques, Fabien A. & Newbery, David M. & Nuttall, William J., 2008. "Fuel mix diversification incentives in liberalized electricity markets: A Mean-Variance Portfolio theory approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1831-1849, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:30:y:2008:i:4:p:1831-1849
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140-9883(07)00147-8
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Richard Green, 2008. "Carbon Tax or Carbon Permits: The Impact on Generators Risks," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 67-90.
    2. Wiser, Ryan & Bachrach, Devra & Bolinger, Mark & Golove, William, 2004. "Comparing the risk profiles of renewable and natural gas-fired electricity contracts," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 335-363, August.
    3. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    4. David M. Newbery, 2008. "Climate Change Policy and Its Effect on Market Power in the Gas Market," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(4), pages 727-751, June.
    5. H. Brett Humphreys & Katherine T. McClain, 1998. "Reducing the Impacts of Energy Price Volatility Through Dynamic Portfolio Selection," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 107-131.
    6. Fabien A. Roques & William J. Nuttall & David M. Newbery & Richard de Neufville & Stephen Connors, 2006. "Nuclear Power: A Hedge against Uncertain Gas and Carbon Prices?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 1-24.
    7. Stirling, Andrew, 1994. "Diversity and ignorance in electricity supply investment : Addressing the solution rather than the problem," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 195-216, March.
    8. Bar-Lev, Dan & Katz, Steven, 1976. "A Portfolio Approach to Fossil Fuel Procurement in the Electric Utility Industry," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(3), pages 933-947, June.
    9. Green, Richard, 2002. "Retail Competition and Electricity Contracts," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 93, Royal Economic Society.
    10. Neuhoff, Karsten & De Vries, Laurens, 2004. "Insufficient incentives for investment in electricity generations," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 253-267, December.
    11. Awerbuch, Shimon, 2000. "Investing in photovoltaics: risk, accounting and the value of new technology," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(14), pages 1023-1035, November.
    12. Awerbuch, Shimon, 1995. "Market-based IRP: It's easy!!!," The Electricity Journal, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 50-67, April.
    13. Pogue, G A, 1970. "An Extension of the Markowitz Portfolio Selection Model to Include Variable Transactions' Costs, Short Sales, Leverage Policies and Taxes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(5), pages 1005-1027, December.
    14. Boris Krey & Peter Zweifel, 2006. "Efficient Electricity Portfolios for Switzerland and the United States," SOI - Working Papers 0602, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich.
    15. Chen, Andrew H Y & Jen, Frank C & Zionts, Stanley, 1971. "The Optimal Portfolio Revision Policy," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 44(1), pages 51-61, January.
    16. Paul R. Kleindorfer & Lide Li, 2005. "Multi-Period VaR-Constrained Portfolio Optimization with Applications to the Electric Power Sector," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 1-26.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:30:y:2008:i:4:p:1831-1849. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.