IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v161y2018icp1262-1281.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Green investment under policy uncertainty and Bayesian learning

Author

Listed:
  • Dalby, Peder A.O.
  • Gillerhaugen, Gisle R.
  • Hagspiel, Verena
  • Leth-Olsen, Tord
  • Thijssen, Jacco J.J.

Abstract

Many countries have introduced support schemes to accelerate investments in renewable energy (RE). Experience shows that, over time, retraction or revision of support schemes become more likely. Investors in RE are greatly affected by the risk of such subsidy changes. This paper examines how investment behavior is affected by updating a subjective belief on the timing of a subsidy revision, incorporating Bayesian learning into a real options modeling approach. We analyze a scenario where a retroactive downward adjustment of fixed feed-in tariffs (FIT) is expected through a regime switching model. We find that investors are less likely to invest when the arrival rate of a policy change increases. Further, investors prefer a lower FIT with a long expected lifespan. We also consider an extension where, after retraction, electricity is sold in a free market. We find that if policy uncertainty is high, an increase in the FIT will be less effective at accelerating investment. However, if policy risk is low, FIT schemes can significantly accelerate investment, even in highly volatile markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Dalby, Peder A.O. & Gillerhaugen, Gisle R. & Hagspiel, Verena & Leth-Olsen, Tord & Thijssen, Jacco J.J., 2018. "Green investment under policy uncertainty and Bayesian learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 1262-1281.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:161:y:2018:i:c:p:1262-1281
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2018.07.137
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544218314348
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2018.07.137?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kolstad, Charles D., 1996. "Learning and Stock Effects in Environmental Regulation: The Case of Greenhouse Gas Emissions," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 1-18, July.
    2. Dieter Helm & Cameron Hepburn & Richard Mash, 2003. "Credible Carbon Policy," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 19(3), pages 438-450.
    3. Fuss, Sabine & Szolgayova, Jana & Obersteiner, Michael & Gusti, Mykola, 2008. "Investment under market and climate policy uncertainty," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 85(8), pages 708-721, August.
    4. McKenna, R. & Hollnaicher, S. & Fichtner, W., 2014. "Cost-potential curves for onshore wind energy: A high-resolution analysis for Germany," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 103-115.
    5. Thijssen, Jacco J. J. & Huisman, Kuno J. M. & Kort, Peter M., 2004. "The effect of information streams on capital budgeting decisions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 157(3), pages 759-774, September.
    6. Luis M. Abadie & José M. Chamorro, 2014. "Valuation of Wind Energy Projects: A Real Options Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 7(5), pages 1-38, May.
    7. J. Michael Harrison & Nur Sunar, 2015. "Investment Timing with Incomplete Information and Multiple Means of Learning," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 63(2), pages 442-457, April.
    8. Roger Adkins & Dean Paxson, 2016. "Subsidies for Renewable Energy Facilities under Uncertainty," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 84(2), pages 222-250, March.
    9. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    10. Ritzenhofen, Ingmar & Spinler, Stefan, 2016. "Optimal design of feed-in-tariffs to stimulate renewable energy investments under regulatory uncertainty — A real options analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 76-89.
    11. Kelly, David L. & Kolstad, Charles D., 1999. "Bayesian learning, growth, and pollution," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 491-518, February.
    12. Eduardo Schwartz & James E. Smith, 2000. "Short-Term Variations and Long-Term Dynamics in Commodity Prices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(7), pages 893-911, July.
    13. Yang, Ming & Blyth, William & Bradley, Richard & Bunn, Derek & Clarke, Charlie & Wilson, Tom, 2008. "Evaluating the power investment options with uncertainty in climate policy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1933-1950, July.
    14. Pawlina, Grzegorz & Kort, Peter M., 2005. "Investment under uncertainty and policy change," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1193-1209, July.
    15. Fleten, S.-E. & Maribu, K.M. & Wangensteen, I., 2007. "Optimal investment strategies in decentralized renewable power generation under uncertainty," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 803-815.
    16. Helena Pinto & Sydney Howell & Dean Paxson, 2009. "Modelling the number of customers as a birth and death process," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 105-118.
    17. Boccard, Nicolas, 2009. "Capacity factor of wind power realized values vs. estimates," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2679-2688, July.
    18. del Río, Pablo & Mir-Artigues, Pere, 2012. "Support for solar PV deployment in Spain: Some policy lessons," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(8), pages 5557-5566.
    19. Jensen, Richard, 1982. "Adoption and diffusion of an innovation of uncertain profitability," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 182-193, June.
    20. Robert S. Pindyck, 2001. "The Dynamics of Commodity Spot and Futures Markets: A Primer," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 1-30.
    21. Boomsma, Trine Krogh & Meade, Nigel & Fleten, Stein-Erik, 2012. "Renewable energy investments under different support schemes: A real options approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 220(1), pages 225-237.
    22. CGIAR Research Program on Agriculture for Nutrition and Health (A4NH), 2014. "A4NH 2013 annual report," Annual reports 2014a4nh, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    23. Couture, Toby & Gagnon, Yves, 2010. "An analysis of feed-in tariff remuneration models: Implications for renewable energy investment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 955-965, February.
    24. H. Dharma Kwon & Steven A. Lippman, 2011. "Acquisition of Project-Specific Assets with Bayesian Updating," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 59(5), pages 1119-1130, October.
    25. Klessmann, Corinna & Rathmann, Max & de Jager, David & Gazzo, Alexis & Resch, Gustav & Busch, Sebastian & Ragwitz, Mario, 2013. "Policy options for reducing the costs of reaching the European renewables target," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 390-403.
    26. Boomsma, Trine Krogh & Linnerud, Kristin, 2015. "Market and policy risk under different renewable electricity support schemes," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 435-448.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lavrutich, Maria & Hagspiel, Verena & Siddiqui, Afzal S., 2023. "Transmission investment under uncertainty: Reconciling private and public incentives," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 304(3), pages 1167-1188.
    2. Nagy, Roel L.G. & Hagspiel, Verena & Kort, Peter M., 2021. "Green capacity investment under subsidy withdrawal risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    3. Matteo Basei & Giorgio Ferrari & Neofytos Rodosthenous, 2023. "Uncertainty over Uncertainty in Environmental Policy Adoption: Bayesian Learning of Unpredictable Socioeconomic Costs," Papers 2304.10344, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
    4. Hagspiel, Verena & Nunes, Cláudia & Oliveira, Carlos & Portela, Manuel, 2021. "Green investment under time-dependent subsidy retraction risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    5. Bigerna, Simona & Wen, Xingang & Hagspiel, Verena & Kort, Peter M., 2019. "Green electricity investments: Environmental target and the optimal subsidy," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 279(2), pages 635-644.
    6. Xu, Xiaofeng & Cui, Xiaodan & Chen, Xiangyu & Zhou, Yichen, 2022. "Impact of government subsidies on the innovation performance of the photovoltaic industry: Based on the moderating effect of carbon trading prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    7. Escoffier, Margaux & Hache, Emmanuel & Mignon, Valérie & Paris, Anthony, 2021. "Determinants of solar photovoltaic deployment in the electricity mix: Do oil prices really matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    8. Golub, Alexander A. & Lubowski, Ruben N. & Piris-Cabezas, Pedro, 2020. "Business responses to climate policy uncertainty: Theoretical analysis of a twin deferral strategy and the risk-adjusted price of carbon," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    9. Bigerna, Simona & Hagspiel, Verena & Kort, Peter M. & Wen, Xingang, 2023. "How damaging are environmental policy targets in terms of welfare?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 311(1), pages 354-372.
    10. Sendstad, Lars H. & Hagspiel, Verena & Mikkelsen, Wilhelm Jebsen & Ravndal, Ruben & Tveitstøl, Martin, 2022. "The impact of subsidy retraction on European renewable energy investments," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    11. Àlex Alonso-Travesset & Diederik Coppitters & Helena Martín & Jordi de la Hoz, 2023. "Economic and Regulatory Uncertainty in Renewable Energy System Design: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-30, January.
    12. Basei, Matteo & Ferrari, Giorgio & Rodosthenous, Neofytos, 2023. "Uncertainty over Uncertainty in Environmental Policy Adoption: Bayesian Learning of Unpredictable Socioeconomic Costs," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 677, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
    13. Basei, Matteo & Ferrari, Giorgio & Rodosthenous, Neofytos, 2024. "Uncertainty over uncertainty in environmental policy adoption: Bayesian learning of unpredictable socioeconomic costs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    14. Su, Chi-Wei & Khan, Khalid & Umar, Muhammad & Chang, Tsangyao, 2022. "Renewable energy in prism of technological innovation and economic uncertainty," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 467-478.
    15. Margaux Escoffier & Emmanuel Hache & Valérie Mignon & Anthony Paris, 2019. "Determinants of investments in solar photovoltaic: Do oil prices really matter?," Working Papers hal-04141866, HAL.
    16. Peter Kort & Maria Lavrutich & Cláudia Nunes & Carlos Oliveira, 2022. "Preventing Environmental Disasters in Investment under Uncertainty," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 83(1), pages 199-220, September.
    17. Detemple, Jerome & Kitapbayev, Yerkin, 2020. "The value of green energy under regulation uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    18. Pasquale Marcello Falcone, 2019. "Tourism-Based Circular Economy in Salento (South Italy): A SWOT-ANP Analysis," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 8(7), pages 1-16, July.
    19. Serhiy Lyeonov & Tetyana Pimonenko & Yuriy Bilan & Dalia Štreimikienė & Grzegorz Mentel, 2019. "Assessment of Green Investments’ Impact on Sustainable Development: Linking Gross Domestic Product Per Capita, Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Renewable Energy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(20), pages 1-12, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hagspiel, Verena & Nunes, Cláudia & Oliveira, Carlos & Portela, Manuel, 2021. "Green investment under time-dependent subsidy retraction risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    2. Nagy, Roel L.G. & Hagspiel, Verena & Kort, Peter M., 2021. "Green capacity investment under subsidy withdrawal risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    3. Sendstad, Lars H. & Hagspiel, Verena & Mikkelsen, Wilhelm Jebsen & Ravndal, Ruben & Tveitstøl, Martin, 2022. "The impact of subsidy retraction on European renewable energy investments," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    4. Barbosa, Luciana & Ferrão, Paulo & Rodrigues, Artur & Sardinha, Alberto, 2018. "Feed-in tariffs with minimum price guarantees and regulatory uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 517-541.
    5. Kitzing, Lena & Juul, Nina & Drud, Michael & Boomsma, Trine Krogh, 2017. "A real options approach to analyse wind energy investments under different support schemes," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 83-96.
    6. Sendstad, Lars Hegnes & Chronopoulos, Michail, 2020. "Sequential investment in renewable energy technologies under policy uncertainty," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    7. Finjord, Fredrik & Hagspiel, Verena & Lavrutich, Maria & Tangen, Marius, 2018. "The impact of Norwegian-Swedish green certificate scheme on investment behavior: A wind energy case study," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 373-389.
    8. Simona Bigerna & Xingang Wen & Verena Hagspiel & Peter M. Kort, 2018. "Green Electricity Investments: Environmental Target and the Optimal Subsidy," Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, Finanza e Statistica 29/2018, Università di Perugia, Dipartimento Economia.
    9. Zhu, Lei & Li, Li & Su, Bin, 2021. "The price-bidding strategy for investors in a renewable auction: An option games–based study," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    10. Kozlova, Mariia, 2017. "Real option valuation in renewable energy literature: Research focus, trends and design," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 180-196.
    11. Loïc Weerdt & Tine Compernolle & Verena Hagspiel & Peter Kort & Carlos Oliveira, 2022. "Stepwise Investment in Circular Plastics Under the Presence of Policy Uncertainty," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 83(2), pages 413-443, October.
    12. Boomsma, Trine Krogh & Linnerud, Kristin, 2015. "Market and policy risk under different renewable electricity support schemes," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 435-448.
    13. Fleten, Stein-Erik & Linnerud, Kristin & Molnár, Peter & Tandberg Nygaard, Maria, 2016. "Green electricity investment timing in practice: Real options or net present value?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(P1), pages 498-506.
    14. Kang, Sang Baum & Létourneau, Pascal, 2016. "Investors’ reaction to the government credibility problem: A real option analysis of emission permit policy risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 96-107.
    15. Adkins, Roger & Paxson, Dean & Pereira, Paulo J. & Rodrigues, Artur, 2019. "Investment decisions with finite-lived collars," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 185-204.
    16. Reichenberg, L. & Ekholm, T. & Boomsma, T., 2023. "Revenue and risk of variable renewable electricity investment: The cannibalization effect under high market penetration," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).
    17. Zhang, M.M. & Zhou, P. & Zhou, D.Q., 2016. "A real options model for renewable energy investment with application to solar photovoltaic power generation in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 213-226.
    18. Haikel Khalfallah & Bibata Sagnon, 2023. "Coordination séquentielle des investissements dans la production d'électricité et dans le réseau électrique : le rôle des incitations renouvelables," Working Papers 2023-04, Grenoble Applied Economics Laboratory (GAEL).
    19. Romano, Teresa & Fumagalli, Elena, 2018. "Greening the power generation sector: Understanding the role of uncertainty," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 272-286.
    20. Barbosa, Luciana & Nunes, Cláudia & Rodrigues, Artur & Sardinha, Alberto, 2020. "Feed-in tariff contract schemes and regulatory uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 287(1), pages 331-347.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:161:y:2018:i:c:p:1262-1281. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.