IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/enreec/v83y2022i2d10.1007_s10640-021-00619-0.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Stepwise Investment in Circular Plastics Under the Presence of Policy Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Loïc Weerdt

    (Princeton University
    University of Antwerp)

  • Tine Compernolle

    (University of Antwerp
    Royal Belgian Institute of Natural Sciences)

  • Verena Hagspiel

    (Norwegian University of Science and Technology)

  • Peter Kort

    (Tilburg University)

  • Carlos Oliveira

    (Universidade de Lisboa and REM)

Abstract

The use of recycled plastics is critical in the transition to a circular economy. However, for certain types of plastics, the recycling process is economically unviable. Government-driven incentives, such as a policy imposing a minimum fraction of recycled plastics to be used in production processes of plastic goods, offer an exit from this impasse. In this paper, we study how a firm’s investment behavior is affected by policy uncertainty governing the introduction of such a regulatory measure. Specifically, we adopt a real option approach to study the two-step investment of a firm in its transition to the use of recycled plastics. A clear trade-off can be distinguished. On the one hand, investing early causes unnecessary profit losses before the policy implementation. On the other hand, a lack of investment leads to market exclusion after the policy implementation. For our case study on the use of recycled polyethylene, we find that firms plan their first investment step, so that the timing of the second investment step approximates their projection on the policy implementation time. Moreover, we find that the firm’s value is maximized when the capacity of the first investment is smaller than the capacity of the second investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Loïc Weerdt & Tine Compernolle & Verena Hagspiel & Peter Kort & Carlos Oliveira, 2022. "Stepwise Investment in Circular Plastics Under the Presence of Policy Uncertainty," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 83(2), pages 413-443, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:enreec:v:83:y:2022:i:2:d:10.1007_s10640-021-00619-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s10640-021-00619-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10640-021-00619-0
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10640-021-00619-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hassett, Kevin A & Metcalf, Gilbert E, 1999. "Investment with Uncertain Tax Policy: Does Random Tax Policy Discourage Investment?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(457), pages 372-393, July.
    2. Yang, Ming & Blyth, William & Bradley, Richard & Bunn, Derek & Clarke, Charlie & Wilson, Tom, 2008. "Evaluating the power investment options with uncertainty in climate policy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1933-1950, July.
    3. Compernolle, T. & Welkenhuysen, K. & Huisman, K. & Piessens, K. & Kort, P., 2017. "Off-shore enhanced oil recovery in the North Sea: The impact of price uncertainty on the investment decisions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 123-137.
    4. Pawlina, Grzegorz & Kort, Peter M., 2005. "Investment under uncertainty and policy change," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1193-1209, July.
    5. Fuss, Sabine & Szolgayova, Jana & Obersteiner, Michael & Gusti, Mykola, 2008. "Investment under market and climate policy uncertainty," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 85(8), pages 708-721, August.
    6. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    7. Oecd, 2018. "Improving Plastics Management: Trends, policy responses, and the role of international co-operation and trade," OECD Environment Policy Papers 12, OECD Publishing.
    8. Kevin A. Hassett, 1999. "Tax Policy and Investment," Books, American Enterprise Institute, number 53049, September.
    9. Michail Chronopoulos, Verena Hagspiel, and Stein-Erik Fleten, 2016. "Stepwise Green Investment under Policy Uncertainty," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    10. Boomsma, Trine Krogh & Linnerud, Kristin, 2015. "Market and policy risk under different renewable electricity support schemes," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 435-448.
    11. Marcus Linder & Mats Williander, 2017. "Circular Business Model Innovation: Inherent Uncertainties," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(2), pages 182-196, February.
    12. Boomsma, Trine Krogh & Meade, Nigel & Fleten, Stein-Erik, 2012. "Renewable energy investments under different support schemes: A real options approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 220(1), pages 225-237.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xi Sun, 2023. "The Role of Carbon Pricing in Promoting Material Recycling: A Model of Multi-Market Interactions," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2034, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nagy, Roel L.G. & Hagspiel, Verena & Kort, Peter M., 2021. "Green capacity investment under subsidy withdrawal risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    2. Hagspiel, Verena & Nunes, Cláudia & Oliveira, Carlos & Portela, Manuel, 2021. "Green investment under time-dependent subsidy retraction risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    3. Detemple, Jerome & Kitapbayev, Yerkin, 2020. "The value of green energy under regulation uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    4. Linnerud, Kristin & Andersson, Ane Marte & Fleten, Stein-Erik, 2014. "Investment timing under uncertain renewable energy policy: An empirical study of small hydropower projects," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 154-164.
    5. Wen, Xingang & Hagspiel, V. & Kort, Peter M., 2017. "Subsidized Capacity Investment under Uncertainty," Other publications TiSEM 4c7a7c87-a34c-4934-a910-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    6. Dalby, Peder A.O. & Gillerhaugen, Gisle R. & Hagspiel, Verena & Leth-Olsen, Tord & Thijssen, Jacco J.J., 2018. "Green investment under policy uncertainty and Bayesian learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 1262-1281.
    7. Fleten, Stein-Erik & Linnerud, Kristin & Molnár, Peter & Tandberg Nygaard, Maria, 2016. "Green electricity investment timing in practice: Real options or net present value?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(P1), pages 498-506.
    8. Liu, Shen & Colson, Gregory & Wetzstein, Michael, 2018. "Biodiesel investment in a disruptive tax-credit policy environment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 19-30.
    9. Sendstad, Lars Hegnes & Chronopoulos, Michail, 2020. "Sequential investment in renewable energy technologies under policy uncertainty," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    10. Romano, Teresa & Fumagalli, Elena, 2018. "Greening the power generation sector: Understanding the role of uncertainty," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 272-286.
    11. Wilson, Nathan E., 2012. "Uncertain regulatory timing and market dynamics," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 102-115.
    12. Kang, Sang Baum & Létourneau, Pascal, 2016. "Investors’ reaction to the government credibility problem: A real option analysis of emission permit policy risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 96-107.
    13. Nagy, Roel L.G. & Fleten, Stein-Erik & Sendstad, Lars H., 2023. "Don’t stop me now: Incremental capacity growth under subsidy termination risk," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    14. Simona Bigerna & Xingang Wen & Verena Hagspiel & Peter M. Kort, 2018. "Green Electricity Investments: Environmental Target and the Optimal Subsidy," Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, Finanza e Statistica 29/2018, Università di Perugia, Dipartimento Economia.
    15. Zhang, M.M. & Zhou, P. & Zhou, D.Q., 2016. "A real options model for renewable energy investment with application to solar photovoltaic power generation in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 213-226.
    16. Goto, Makoto & Nishide, Katsumasa & Takashima, Ryuta, 2017. "Leaders, followers, and equity risk premiums in booms and busts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 207-220.
    17. Haikel Khalfallah & Bibata Sagnon, 2023. "Coordination séquentielle des investissements dans la production d'électricité et dans le réseau électrique : le rôle des incitations renouvelables," Working Papers 2023-04, Grenoble Applied Economics Laboratory (GAEL).
    18. Barbosa, Luciana & Nunes, Cláudia & Rodrigues, Artur & Sardinha, Alberto, 2020. "Feed-in tariff contract schemes and regulatory uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 287(1), pages 331-347.
    19. Nishide, Katsumasa & Nomi, Ernesto Kazuhiro, 2009. "Regime uncertainty and optimal investment timing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 1796-1807, October.
    20. Haehl, Christian & Spinler, Stefan, 2018. "Capacity expansion under regulatory uncertainty:A real options-based study in international container shipping," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 75-93.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:enreec:v:83:y:2022:i:2:d:10.1007_s10640-021-00619-0. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.