IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Uncertain regulatory timing and market dynamics

  • Wilson, Nathan E.

Using a dynamic model of capacity accumulation, I examine the relationship between uncertainty about the timing of a new Pigouvian tax and oligopolistic competition. I find that for some market structures uncertainty about the timing of the regulatory change leads firms to increase investment. These results stem from the nature of the uncertainty and its interaction with firms' strategic incentive to engage in capacity races. They dramatize the importance of accounting for initial conditions when forecasting firms' reactions to anticipated regulatory changes. In addition, I find that more protracted uncertainty leads to greater welfare costs.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Industrial Organization.

Volume (Year): 30 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 102-115

in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:indorg:v:30:y:2012:i:1:p:102-115
Contact details of provider: Web page:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Beth Allen & Raymond Deneckere & Tom Faith & Dan Kovenock, 1995. "Capacity precommitment as a barrier to entry: a Bertrand-Edgeworth approach," Staff Report 187, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  2. Pawlina, G. & Kort, P.M., 2004. "Investment under uncertainty and policy change," Other publications TiSEM dc869876-eaea-427c-ad5f-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  3. Pawlina, G. & Kort, P.M., 2001. "Real Options in an Aymmetric Duopoly : Who Benefits from your Competitive Disadvantage," Discussion Paper 2001-95, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  4. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, 05.
  5. Pakes, Ariel & McGuire, Paul, 2001. "Stochastic Algorithms, Symmetric Markov Perfect Equilibrium, and the 'Curse' of Dimensionality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(5), pages 1261-81, September.
  6. Ariel Pakes, 2000. "A Framework for Applied Dynamic Analysis in I.O," NBER Working Papers 8024, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Ariel Pakes & Paul McGuire, 1994. "Computing Markov-Perfect Nash Equilibria: Numerical Implications of a Dynamic Differentiated Product Model," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 25(4), pages 555-589, Winter.
  8. Ronald L. Goettler & Christine A. Parlour & Uday Rajan, 2005. "Equilibrium in a Dynamic Limit Order Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2149-2192, October.
  9. Gray, Wayne B & Shadbegian, Ronald J, 1998. "Environmental Regulation, Investment Timing, and Technology Choice," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(2), pages 235-56, June.
  10. Doraszelski, Ulrich & Satterthwaite, Mark, 2007. "Computable Markov-Perfect Industry Dynamics: Existence, Purification, and Multiplicity," CEPR Discussion Papers 6212, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. David Besanko & Ulrich Doraszelski, 2002. "Capacity Dynamics and Endogenous Asymmetries in Firm Size," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 196, Society for Computational Economics.
  12. Borkovsky, Ron N. & Doraszelski, Ulrich & Kryukov, Yaroslav, 2009. "A Dynamic Quality Ladder Model with Entry and Exit: Exploring the Equilibrium Correspondence Using the Homotopy Method," CEPR Discussion Papers 7560, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Matthew E. Kahn & Erin T. Mansur, 2010. "How Do Energy Prices, and Labor and Environmental Regulations Affect Local Manufacturing Employment Dynamics? A Regression Discontinuity Approach," NBER Working Papers 16538, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Jaap H. Abbring & Jeffrey R. Campbell, 2010. "Last-In First-Out Oligopoly Dynamics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(5), pages 1491-1527, 09.
  15. Hartman, Richard, 1972. "The effects of price and cost uncertainty on investment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 258-266, October.
  16. Kevin A. Hassett & Gilbert E. Metcalf, 1998. "Investment With Uncertain Tax Policy: Does Random Tax Policy Discourage Investment?," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 9823, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
  17. repec:oup:restud:v:62:y:1995:i:1:p:53-82 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. Yang, Ming & Blyth, William & Bradley, Richard & Bunn, Derek & Clarke, Charlie & Wilson, Tom, 2008. "Evaluating the power investment options with uncertainty in climate policy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1933-1950, July.
  19. Steven R. Grenadier, 2002. "Option Exercise Games: An Application to the Equilibrium Investment Strategies of Firms," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(3), pages 691-721.
  20. Jacobsen, Grant D., 2011. "The Al Gore effect: An Inconvenient Truth and voluntary carbon offsets," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 67-78, January.
  21. repec:oup:restud:v:54:y:1987:i:1:p:1-21 is not listed on IDEAS
  22. Witold J. Henisz & Bennet A. Zelner, 2001. "The Institutional Environment for Telecommunications Investment," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 123-147, 03.
  23. C. L. Benkard & P. Jeziorski & B. Van Roy & G. Y. Weintraub, 2008. "Nonstationary Oblivious Equilibrium," Economics Working Paper Archive 568, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  24. Besanko, David & Doraszelski, Ulrich & Lu, Lauren Xiaoyuan & Satterthwaite, Mark, 2010. "On the role of demand and strategic uncertainty in capacity investment and disinvestment dynamics," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 383-389, July.
  25. Michael D. Whinston, 1988. "Exit with Multiplant Firms," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 19(4), pages 568-588, Winter.
  26. Murto, Pauli & Nasakkala, Erkka & Keppo, Jussi, 2004. "Timing of investments in oligopoly under uncertainty: A framework for numerical analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 157(2), pages 486-500, September.
  27. Chen, Jiawei, 2009. "The effects of mergers with dynamic capacity accumulation," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 92-109, January.
  28. Ron N. Borkovsky & Ulrich Doraszelski & Yaroslav Kryukov, 2009. "A Dynamic Quality Ladder Model with Entry and Exit: Exploring the Equilibrium Correspondence Using the Homotopy Method," GSIA Working Papers 2010-E2, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  29. David M. Kreps & Jose A. Scheinkman, 1983. "Quantity Precommitment and Bertrand Competition Yield Cournot Outcomes," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 14(2), pages 326-337, Autumn.
  30. Markovich, Sarit & Moenius, Johannes, 2009. "Winning while losing: Competition dynamics in the presence of indirect network effects," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 346-357, May.
  31. Lambrecht, Bart & Perraudin, William, 2003. "Real options and preemption under incomplete information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 619-643, February.
  32. Alan Carruth & Andy Dickerson & Andrew Henley, 1998. "What Do We Know About Investment Under Uncertainty?," Studies in Economics 9804, School of Economics, University of Kent.
  33. Abel, Andrew B, 1983. "Optimal Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 228-33, March.
  34. Dan Kovenock & Raymond J. Deneckere, 1996. "Bertrand-Edgeworth duopoly with unit cost asymmetry (*)," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 1-25.
  35. Mason, Robin & Weeds, Helen, 2010. "Investment, uncertainty and pre-emption," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 278-287, May.
  36. A. Michael Spence, 1977. "Entry, Capacity, Investment and Oligopolistic Pricing," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 8(2), pages 534-544, Autumn.
  37. Peter S. Reinelt & David W. Keith, 2007. "Carbon Capture Retrofits and the Cost of Regulatory Uncertainty," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 101-128.
  38. Giovanni Maggi, 1996. "Endogenous Leadership in a New Market," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 27(4), pages 641-659, Winter.
  39. Amanda I. Lee & AJames Alm, 2004. "The Clean Air Act Amendments and Firm Investment in Pollution Abatement Equipment," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 80(3), pages 433-447.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:indorg:v:30:y:2012:i:1:p:102-115. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.