IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Uncertain regulatory timing and market dynamics

Listed author(s):
  • Wilson, Nathan E.

Using a dynamic model of capacity accumulation, I examine the relationship between uncertainty about the timing of a new Pigouvian tax and oligopolistic competition. I find that for some market structures uncertainty about the timing of the regulatory change leads firms to increase investment. These results stem from the nature of the uncertainty and its interaction with firms' strategic incentive to engage in capacity races. They dramatize the importance of accounting for initial conditions when forecasting firms' reactions to anticipated regulatory changes. In addition, I find that more protracted uncertainty leads to greater welfare costs.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167718711000658
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Industrial Organization.

Volume (Year): 30 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 102-115

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:indorg:v:30:y:2012:i:1:p:102-115
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijindorg.2011.07.001
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505551

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Steven R. Grenadier, 2002. "Option Exercise Games: An Application to the Equilibrium Investment Strategies of Firms," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(3), pages 691-721.
  2. Mason, Robin & Weeds, Helen, 2010. "Investment, uncertainty and pre-emption," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 278-287, May.
  3. Yang, Ming & Blyth, William & Bradley, Richard & Bunn, Derek & Clarke, Charlie & Wilson, Tom, 2008. "Evaluating the power investment options with uncertainty in climate policy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1933-1950, July.
  4. Michael D. Whinston, 1988. "Exit with Multiplant Firms," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 19(4), pages 568-588, Winter.
  5. Wayne B. Gray & Ronald J. Shadbegian, 1997. "Environmental Regulation, Investment Timing, and Technology Choice," NBER Working Papers 6036, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Matthew E. Kahn & Erin T. Mansur, 2010. "How Do Energy Prices, and Labor and Environmental Regulations Affect Local Manufacturing Employment Dynamics? A Regression Discontinuity Approach," NBER Working Papers 16538, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Lambrecht, Bart & Perraudin, William, 2003. "Real options and preemption under incomplete information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 619-643, February.
  8. Ariel Pakes & Paul McGuire, 1992. "Computing Markov perfect Nash equilibria: numerical implications of a dynamic differentiated product model," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 58, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  9. Jaap H. Abbring & Jeffrey R. Campbell, 2006. "Last-In First-Out Oligopoly Dynamics," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-110/3, Tinbergen Institute, revised 22 Jan 2009.
  10. Jacobsen, Grant D., 2011. "The Al Gore effect: An Inconvenient Truth and voluntary carbon offsets," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 67-78, January.
  11. Borkovsky, Ron N. & Doraszelski, Ulrich & Kryukov, Yaroslav, 2009. "A Dynamic Quality Ladder Model with Entry and Exit: Exploring the Equilibrium Correspondence Using the Homotopy Method," CEPR Discussion Papers 7560, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Markovich, Sarit & Moenius, Johannes, 2009. "Winning while losing: Competition dynamics in the presence of indirect network effects," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 346-357, May.
  13. Amanda I. Lee & AJames Alm, 2004. "The Clean Air Act Amendments and Firm Investment in Pollution Abatement Equipment," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 80(3), pages 433-447.
  14. Doraszelski, Ulrich & Pakes, Ariel, 2007. "A Framework for Applied Dynamic Analysis in IO," Handbook of Industrial Organization, Elsevier.
  15. Beth Allen & Raymond Deneckere & Tom Faith & Dan Kovenock, 1994. "Capacity Precommitment as a Barrier to Entry:A Bertrand-Edgeworth Approach," Industrial Organization 9411002, EconWPA, revised 14 Nov 1994.
  16. Giovanni Maggi, 1996. "Endogenous Leadership in a New Market," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 27(4), pages 641-659, Winter.
  17. Pakes, Ariel & McGuire, Paul, 2001. "Stochastic Algorithms, Symmetric Markov Perfect Equilibrium, and the 'Curse' of Dimensionality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(5), pages 1261-1281, September.
  18. Murto, Pauli & Nasakkala, Erkka & Keppo, Jussi, 2004. "Timing of investments in oligopoly under uncertainty: A framework for numerical analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 157(2), pages 486-500, September.
  19. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, 05.
  20. Hartman, Richard, 1972. "The effects of price and cost uncertainty on investment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 258-266, October.
  21. Carruth, Alan & Dickerson, Andrew & Henley, Andrew, 2000. " What Do We Know about Investment under Uncertainty?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 119-153, April.
  22. David Besanko & Ulrich Doraszelski, 2004. "Capacity Dynamics and Endogenous Asymmetries in Firm Size," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 35(1), pages 23-49, Spring.
  23. Pawlina, G. & Kort, P.M., 2001. "Real Options in an Aymmetric Duopoly : Who Benefits from your Competitive Disadvantage," Discussion Paper 2001-95, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  24. Ronald L. Goettler & Christine A. Parlour & Uday Rajan, 2005. "Equilibrium in a Dynamic Limit Order Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2149-2192, October.
  25. Hassett, Kevin A & Metcalf, Gilbert E, 1999. "Investment with Uncertain Tax Policy: Does Random Tax Policy Discourage Investment?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(457), pages 372-393, July.
  26. A. Michael Spence, 1977. "Entry, Capacity, Investment and Oligopolistic Pricing," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 8(2), pages 534-544, Autumn.
  27. Chen, Jiawei, 2009. "The effects of mergers with dynamic capacity accumulation," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 92-109, January.
  28. Pawlina, G. & Kort, P.M., 2005. "Investment under uncertainty and policy change," Other publications TiSEM dc869876-eaea-427c-ad5f-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  29. Richard Ericson & Ariel Pakes, 1995. "Markov-Perfect Industry Dynamics: A Framework for Empirical Work," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 62(1), pages 53-82.
  30. Christopher Harris & John Vickers, 1987. "Racing with Uncertainty," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 54(1), pages 1-21.
  31. Dan Kovenock & Raymond J. Deneckere, 1996. "Bertrand-Edgeworth duopoly with unit cost asymmetry (*)," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 8(1), pages 1-25.
  32. Peter S. Reinelt & David W. Keith, 2007. "Carbon Capture Retrofits and the Cost of Regulatory Uncertainty," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 101-128.
  33. David M. Kreps & Jose A. Scheinkman, 1983. "Quantity Precommitment and Bertrand Competition Yield Cournot Outcomes," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 14(2), pages 326-337, Autumn.
  34. Abel, Andrew B, 1983. "Optimal Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 228-233, March.
  35. Besanko, David & Doraszelski, Ulrich & Lu, Lauren Xiaoyuan & Satterthwaite, Mark, 2010. "On the role of demand and strategic uncertainty in capacity investment and disinvestment dynamics," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 383-389, July.
  36. Ron N. Borkovsky & Ulrich Doraszelski & Yaroslav Kryukov, 2009. "A Dynamic Quality Ladder Model with Entry and Exit: Exploring the Equilibrium Correspondence Using the Homotopy Method," GSIA Working Papers 2010-E2, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  37. Doraszelski, Ulrich & Satterthwaite, Mark, 2007. "Computable Markov-Perfect Industry Dynamics: Existence, Purification, and Multiplicity," CEPR Discussion Papers 6212, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  38. Witold J. Henisz & Bennet A. Zelner, 2001. "The Institutional Environment for Telecommunications Investment," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 123-147, 03.
  39. C. L. Benkard & P. Jeziorski & B. Van Roy & G. Y. Weintraub, 2008. "Nonstationary Oblivious Equilibrium," Economics Working Paper Archive 568, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:indorg:v:30:y:2012:i:1:p:102-115. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.