A Dynamic Duopoly Investment Game under Uncertain Market Growth
We model investments in capacity in a homogeneous product duopoly facing uncertain demand growth. Capacity building is achieved through adding production units that are durable and lumpy and whose cost is irreversible. There is no exogenous order of moves, no first-mover or second-mover advantage, no commitment, and no finite horizon; while building their capacity over time, firms compete `a la Cournot in the product market. We investigate Markov Perfect Equilibrium (MPE) paths of the investment game, which may include preemption episodes and tacit collusion episodes. However, when firms have not yet invested in capacity, the sole pattern that is MPEcompatible is a preemption episode with firms investing at different times, but both have equal value. The first such investment may occur earlier, and therefore be riskier, than socially optimal. When both firms hold capacity, tacit collusion episodes may be MPE-compatible with firms investing simultaneously at a postponed time (generating an investment wave in the industry). We show that the emergence of such episodes is favored by higher demand volatility, faster market growth, and lower discount rate (cost of capital).
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
|Date of creation:||Jul 2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: manufacture des Tabacs, 21 allée de brienne, 31200 Toulouse|
Phone: (+33) 5 61 12 86 23
Web page: http://www.toulouse.inra.fr/lerna/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Allen, B. & Deneckere, R. & Faith, T. & Kovenock, D., 1994.
"Capacity Precommitment as a Barrier to Entry: A Bertrand-Edgeworth Approach,"
Purdue University Economics Working Papers
1062, Purdue University, Department of Economics.
- Dan Kovenock & Raymond Deneckere & Tom Faith & Beth Allen, 2000. "Capacity precommitment as a barrier to entry: A Bertrand-Edgeworth approach," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 15(3), pages 501-530.
- Beth Allen & Raymond Deneckere & Tom Faith & Dan Kovenock, 1995. "Capacity precommitment as a barrier to entry: a Bertrand-Edgeworth approach," Staff Report 187, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Allen, B. & Deneckere, R. & Faith, T. & Kovenock, D., 1994. "Capacity Precommitment as a Barrier to Entry: A Bertrand- Engeworth Approach," Papers 9483, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
- Beth Allen & Raymond Deneckere & Tom Faith & Dan Kovenock, 1994. "Capacity Precommitment as a Barrier to Entry:A Bertrand-Edgeworth Approach," Industrial Organization 9411002, EconWPA, revised 14 Nov 1994.
- Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474, 01-2013.
- Genc, Talat S. & Reynolds, Stanley S. & Sen, Suvrajeet, 2007. "Dynamic oligopolistic games under uncertainty: A stochastic programming approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 55-80, January.
- Grenadier, Steven R, 1996. " The Strategic Exercise of Options: Development Cascades and Overbuilding in Real Estate Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1653-79, December.
- Baldursson, Fridrik M., 1998. "Irreversible investment under uncertainty in oligopoly," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 627-644, April.
- Pawlina, G. & Kort, P.M., 2001.
"Real Options in an Aymmetric Duopoly : Who Benefits from your Competitive Disadvantage,"
2001-95, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Grzegorz Pawlina & Peter M. Kort, 2006. "Real Options in an Asymmetric Duopoly: Who Benefits from Your Competitive Disadvantage?," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 1-35, 03.
- Xavier Vives, 2001. "Oligopoly Pricing: Old Ideas and New Tools," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026272040x, December.
- Huisman, K.J.M. & Kort, P.M., 2000.
"Strategic Technology Adoptation Taking into Account Future Technological Improvements : A Real Options Approach,"
2000-52, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Huisman, Kuno J. M. & Kort, Peter M., 2004. "Strategic technology adoption taking into account future technological improvements: A real options approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 159(3), pages 705-728, December.
- Huisman, K.J.M. & Kort, P.M., 2004. "Strategic technology adoption taking into account future technological improvements : A real options approach," Other publications TiSEM cfab60d6-970e-4dc7-b11c-e, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Steven R. Grenadier, 2002. "Option Exercise Games: An Application to the Equilibrium Investment Strategies of Firms," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(3), pages 691-721.
- David M. Kreps & Jose A. Scheinkman, 1983. "Quantity Precommitment and Bertrand Competition Yield Cournot Outcomes," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 14(2), pages 326-337, Autumn.
- Bayer, Christian, 2007. "Investment timing and predatory behavior in a duopoly with endogenous exit," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 3069-3109, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ler:wpaper:10.12.318. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Maxime MARTY)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.