On the role of demand and strategic uncertainty in capacity investment and disinvestment dynamics
Even mature industries seldom settle down into a long-run steady state. Fluctuations in demand disrupt the status quo and call for firms to adjust their capacities on an ongoing basis. We construct a fully dynamic model of an oligopolistic industry with lumpy capacity and lumpy investment/disinvestment decisions. In addition to uncertainty about the evolution of demand, a firm faces strategic uncertainty concerning the decisions of its rivals. We numerically solve the model for its Markov-perfect equilibria. For one set of parameter values, three equilibria exist, and while all of them have simple, intuitive structures, they exhibit widely varying patterns of response to demand shocks. At one extreme, one firm dominates the industry almost as a monopolist and changes its capacity to accommodate demand. At the other extreme, the larger firm keeps its capacity nearly constant while the smaller firm acts as the swing producer.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Cabral, Luis M. B., 2004. "Simultaneous entry and welfare," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(5), pages 943-957, October.
- Michael D. Whinston, 1988. "Exit with Multiplant Firms," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 19(4), pages 568-588, Winter.
- Grenadier, Steven R, 1996. " The Strategic Exercise of Options: Development Cascades and Overbuilding in Real Estate Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1653-79, December.
- Nick Bloom & Stephen Bond & John Van Reenen, 2006.
"Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics,"
CEP Discussion Papers
dp0739, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Nick Bloom & John Van Reenen & Stephen Bond, 2006. "Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 12383, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Van Reenen & Nick Bloom & Steve Bond, 2006. "Uncertainty and investment dynamics," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 2645, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Christensen, Laurits Rolf & Caves, Richard E, 1997. "Cheap Talk and Investment Rivalry in the Pulp and Paper Industry," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(1), pages 47-73, March.
- Andrew Wood, 2005. "Investment interdependence and the coordination of lumpy investments: evidence from the British brick industry," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(1), pages 37-49.
- Booth, D L, et al, 1991. "An Empirical Model of Capacity Expansion and Pricing in an Oligopoly with Barometric Price Leadership: A Case Study of the Newsprint Industry in North America," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(3), pages 255-76, March.
- Richard J. Gilbert and Marvin Lieberman., 1987.
"Investment and Coordination in Oligopolistic Industries,"
Economics Working Papers
8730, University of California at Berkeley.
- Richard J. Gilbert & Marvin Lieberman, 1987. "Investment and Coordination in Oligopolistic Industries," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 18(1), pages 17-33, Spring.
- Gilbert, Richard J., 1987. "Investment and Coordination in Oligopolistic Industries," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt51b0f7sq, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Ghemawat, Pankaj, 1984. "Capacity Expansion in the Titanium Dioxide Industry," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 145-63, December.
- Boyer, Marcel & Lasserre, Pierre & Mariotti, Thomas & Moreaux, Michel, 2004. "Preemption and rent dissipation under price competition," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 309-328, March.
- Pankaj Ghemawat & Barry Nalebuff, 1990. "The Devolution of Declining Industries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 105(1), pages 167-186.
- Fudenberg, Drew & Tirole, Jean, 1986. "A Theory of Exit in Duopoly," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(4), pages 943-60, July.
- David Besanko & Ulrich Doraszelski, 2002.
"Capacity Dynamics and Endogenous Asymmetries in Firm Size,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 2002
196, Society for Computational Economics.
- David Besanko & Ulrich Doraszelski, 2004. "Capacity Dynamics and Endogenous Asymmetries in Firm Size," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 35(1), pages 23-49, Spring.
- Pawlina, G. & Kort, P.M., 2001.
"Real Options in an Aymmetric Duopoly : Who Benefits from your Competitive Disadvantage,"
2001-95, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Grzegorz Pawlina & Peter M. Kort, 2006. "Real Options in an Asymmetric Duopoly: Who Benefits from Your Competitive Disadvantage?," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 1-35, 03.
- Ulrich Doraszelski & Mark Satterthwaite, 2010. "Computable Markov-perfect industry dynamics," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 41(2), pages 215-243.
- Huisman, Kuno J. M. & Kort, Peter M., 2004.
"Strategic technology adoption taking into account future technological improvements: A real options approach,"
European Journal of Operational Research,
Elsevier, vol. 159(3), pages 705-728, December.
- Huisman, K.J.M. & Kort, P.M., 2000. "Strategic Technology Adoptation Taking into Account Future Technological Improvements : A Real Options Approach," Discussion Paper 2000-52, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Huisman, K.J.M. & Kort, P.M., 2004. "Strategic technology adoption taking into account future technological improvements : A real options approach," Other publications TiSEM cfab60d6-970e-4dc7-b11c-e, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Hall, Elizabeth A., 1990. "An analysis of preemptive behavior in the titanium dioxide industry," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 469-484, September.
- David Besanko & Ulrich Doraszelski & Yaroslav Kryukov & Mark Satterthwaite, 2010. "Learning-by-Doing, Organizational Forgetting, and Industry Dynamics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(2), pages 453-508, 03.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:indorg:v:28:y:2010:i:4:p:383-389. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.