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On the role of demand and strategic uncertainty in capacity investment and disinvestment dynamics

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  • Besanko, David
  • Doraszelski, Ulrich
  • Lu, Lauren Xiaoyuan
  • Satterthwaite, Mark

Abstract

Even mature industries seldom settle down into a long-run steady state. Fluctuations in demand disrupt the status quo and call for firms to adjust their capacities on an ongoing basis. We construct a fully dynamic model of an oligopolistic industry with lumpy capacity and lumpy investment/disinvestment decisions. In addition to uncertainty about the evolution of demand, a firm faces strategic uncertainty concerning the decisions of its rivals. We numerically solve the model for its Markov-perfect equilibria. For one set of parameter values, three equilibria exist, and while all of them have simple, intuitive structures, they exhibit widely varying patterns of response to demand shocks. At one extreme, one firm dominates the industry almost as a monopolist and changes its capacity to accommodate demand. At the other extreme, the larger firm keeps its capacity nearly constant while the smaller firm acts as the swing producer.

Suggested Citation

  • Besanko, David & Doraszelski, Ulrich & Lu, Lauren Xiaoyuan & Satterthwaite, Mark, 2010. "On the role of demand and strategic uncertainty in capacity investment and disinvestment dynamics," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 383-389, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:indorg:v:28:y:2010:i:4:p:383-389
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Victor Aguirregabiria & Arvind Magesan, "undated". "Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Games when Players' Beliefs Are Not in Equilibrium," Working Papers 2012-03, Department of Economics, University of Calgary.
    2. Dawid, H. & Kopel, M. & Kort, P.M., 2013. "R&D competition versus R&D cooperation in oligopolistic markets with evolving structure," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 527-537.
    3. Maria Teresa TRENTINAGLIA DE DAVERIO, 2013. "Country-specific rigidities and investment decisions: quantity competition and demand uncertainty," Departmental Working Papers 2013-15, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano, revised 02 Jul 2014.
    4. Ron Borkovsky & Paul Ellickson & Brett Gordon & Victor Aguirregabiria & Pedro Gardete & Paul Grieco & Todd Gureckis & Teck-Hua Ho & Laurent Mathevet & Andrew Sweeting, 2015. "Multiplicity of equilibria and information structures in empirical games: challenges and prospects," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 115-125, June.
    5. Wilson, Nathan E., 2012. "Uncertain regulatory timing and market dynamics," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 102-115.
    6. Friberg, Richard & Huse, Cristian, 2012. "How to use demand systems to evaluate risky projects, with an application to automobile production," CEPR Discussion Papers 9266, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. repec:spr:chfecr:v:5:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1186_s40589-017-0055-1 is not listed on IDEAS

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