Strategic technology adoption taking into account future technological improvements: A real options approach
This paper studies a dynamic duopoly in which firms compete in the adoption of new technologies. The innovation process is exogenous to the firms. Both firms have the possibility to adopt a current technology or to wait for a better technology that arrives at an unknown point of time in the future. At the moment that a firm invests it enters a new market with a profit flow that follows a stochastic Brownian motion process. Results turn out to largely depend on the probability that a new technology arrives in the immediate future. If this probability is low, firms only take the current technology into account, which results in the usual preemption game. Increasing this probability gradually changes the outcome from a preemption game where both firms adopt the current technology, to a preemption game where the follower will adopt the new technology. Increasing the probability of arrival of the new technology further, turns the preemption game into a war of attrition where the follower adopting the new technology is better of than the leader. Finally, when the probability of arrival of a new technology is really large, both firms will adopt the new technology.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Stenbacka, Rune & Tombak, Mihkel M., 1994. "Strategic timing of adoption of new technologies under uncertainty," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 387-411, September.
- Huisman, Kuno J. M. & Kort, Peter M., 2003.
"Strategic investment in technological innovations,"
European Journal of Operational Research,
Elsevier, vol. 144(1), pages 209-223, January.
- Huisman, K.J.M. & Kort, P.M., 2003. "Strategic investment in technological innovations," Other publications TiSEM 19205076-9017-44f3-8658-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Huisman, K.J.M. & Kort, P.M., 1998. "Strategic Investment in Technological Innovations," Discussion Paper 1998-114, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Grenadier, Steven R. & Weiss, Allen M., 1997. "Investment in technological innovations: An option pricing approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 397-416, June.
- Huisman, K.J.M. & Kort, P.M., 1999.
"Strategic Technology Investment under Uncertainty,"
1999-18, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Marcel Boyer & Pierre Lasserre & Thomas Mariotti & Michel Moreaux, 2001.
"Real Options, Preemption, and the Dynamics of Industry Investments,"
CIRANO Working Papers
- Marcel Boyer & Pierre Lasserre & Thomas Mariotti & Michel Moreaux, 2001. "Real Options, Preemption, and the Dynamics of Industry Investments," Cahiers de recherche du Département des sciences économiques, UQAM 20-10, Université du Québec à Montréal, Département des sciences économiques.
- Hoppe, Heidrun C., 2000. "Second-mover advantages in the strategic adoption of new technology under uncertainty," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 315-338, February.
- Nielsen, Martin J., 2002. "Competition and irreversible investments," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 731-743, May.
- Fudenberg, Drew & Tirole, Jean, 1985. "Preemption and Rent Equilization in the Adoption of New Technology," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(3), pages 383-401, July.
- Hendricks, Ken & Weiss, Andrew & Wilson, Charles A, 1988.
"The War of Attrition in Continuous Time with Complete Information,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 29(4), pages 663-80, November.
- Hendricks, Kenneth & Weiss, Andrew & Wilson, Charles, 1987. "The War of Attrition in Continuous Time with Complete Information," Working Papers 87-03, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Gotz, Georg, 2000. "Strategic timing of adoption of new technologies under uncertainty: A note," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 369-379, February.
- repec:fth:tilbur:9992 is not listed on IDEAS
- Huisman, K.J.M. & Kort, P.M., 1999. "Effects of Strategic Interactions on the Option Value of Waiting," Discussion Paper 1999-92, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:159:y:2004:i:3:p:705-728. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.