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Strategic capital budgeting : Asset replacement under uncertainty

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  • Kort, P.M.

    (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management)

  • Pawlina, G.

    (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management)

Abstract

We consider a firm's decision to replace an existing production technology with a new, more cost-efficient one.Kulatilaka and Perotti [1998, Management Science] nd that, in a two-period model, increased product market uncertainty could encourage the firm to invest strategically in the new technology.This paper extends their framework to a continuous-time model which adds flexibility in timing of the investment decision.This flexibility introduces an option value of waiting which increases with uncertainty.In contrast with the two-period model, despite the existence of the strategic option of becoming a market leader due to a lower marginal cost, more uncertainty always increases the expected time to invest.Furthermore, it is shown that under increased uncertainty the probability that the firm finds it optimal to invest within a given time period always decreases for time periods longer than the optimal time to invest in a deterministic case.For smaller time periods there are contrary effects so that the overall impact of increased uncertainty on the probability of investing is in this case ambiguous.
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Suggested Citation

  • Kort, P.M. & Pawlina, G., 2003. "Strategic capital budgeting : Asset replacement under uncertainty," Other publications TiSEM 6cdd5963-f015-4454-8c84-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  • Handle: RePEc:tiu:tiutis:6cdd5963-f015-4454-8c84-d6243cb5e484
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    Cited by:

    1. Michail Chronopoulos & Verena Hagspiel & Stein-Erik Fleten, 2017. "Stepwise investment and capacity sizing under uncertainty," OR Spectrum: Quantitative Approaches in Management, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research e.V., vol. 39(2), pages 447-472, March.
    2. Huisman, K.J.M. & Kort, P.M. & Pawlina, G. & Thijssen, J.J.J., 2003. "Strategic Investment Under Uncertainty : Merging Real Options with Game Theory," Discussion Paper 2003-6, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    3. Chevalier-Roignant, Benoît & Flath, Christoph M. & Huchzermeier, Arnd & Trigeorgis, Lenos, 2011. "Strategic investment under uncertainty: A synthesis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 215(3), pages 639-650, December.
    4. Baresa, Suzana & Bogdan, Sinisa & Ivanovic, Zoran, 2016. "Capital Investments And Financial Profitability," UTMS Journal of Economics, University of Tourism and Management, Skopje, Macedonia, vol. 7(1), pages 49-59.
    5. S. Leitner & D.A. Behrens, 2015. "On the efficiency of hurdle rate-based coordination mechanisms," Mathematical and Computer Modelling of Dynamical Systems, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(5), pages 413-431, September.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies

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