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Stepwise Investment and Capacity Sizing under Uncertainty

Author

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  • Chronopoulos, Michail

    (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics)

  • Hagspiel, Verena

    (Dept. of Industrial Economics and Technology Management, Norwegian University of Science and Technology)

  • Fleten, Stein–Erik

    (Dept. of Industrial Economics and Technology Management, Norwegian University of Science and Technology)

Abstract

The relationship between uncertainty and managerial flexibility is particularly crucial in addressing capital projects. We consider a firm that can invest in a project in either a single (lumpy investment) or multiple stages (stepwise investment) under price uncertainty and has discretion over not only the time of investment but also the size of the project. We confirm that, if the capacity of a project is fixed, then lumpy investment becomes more valuable than a stepwise investment strategy under high price uncertainty. By contrast, if a firm has discretion over capacity, then we show that the stepwise investment strategy always dominates that of lumpy investment. In addition, we show that the total amount of installed capacity under a stepwise investment strategy is always greater than that under lumpy investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Chronopoulos, Michail & Hagspiel, Verena & Fleten, Stein–Erik, 2015. "Stepwise Investment and Capacity Sizing under Uncertainty," Discussion Papers 2015/10, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:nhhfms:2015_010
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    3. Ma, Jinrun & Niu, Yingjie, 2019. "The timing and intensity of investment under ambiguity," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 318-330.
    4. Koussis, Nicos & Silaghi, Florina, 2023. "Revenue-sharing and volume flexibility in the supply chain," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    5. Michail Chronopoulos, Verena Hagspiel, and Stein-Erik Fleten, 2016. "Stepwise Green Investment under Policy Uncertainty," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    6. Oliveira, Carlos & Perkowski, Nicolas, 2020. "Optimal investment decision under switching regimes of subsidy support," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 285(1), pages 120-132.
    7. Adkins, Roger & Paxson, Dean, 2019. "Rescaling-contraction with a lower cost technology when revenue declines," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 277(2), pages 574-586.
    8. Manuel Guerra & Cláudia Nunes & Carlos Oliveira, 2021. "The optimal stopping problem revisited," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 62(1), pages 137-169, February.
    9. Balliauw, Matteo, 2021. "Time to build: A real options analysis of port capacity expansion investments under uncertainty," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    10. Balliauw, Matteo & Kort, Peter M. & Zhang, Anming, 2019. "Capacity investment decisions of two competing ports under uncertainty: A strategic real options approach," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 249-264.
    11. Alain Bensoussan & Benoît Chevalier‐Roignant & Alejandro Rivera, 2022. "A model for wind farm management with option interactions," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 31(7), pages 2853-2871, July.
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    13. Guo, Liquan & Ng, Adolf K.Y. & Jiang, Changmin & Long, Jiancheng, 2021. "Stepwise capacity integration in port cluster under uncertainty and congestion," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 94-113.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Investment analysis; capacity sizing; flexibility; real options;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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