How to analyze the investment–uncertainty relationship in real option models?
The real options tradition originally predicted a decreasing relationship between uncertainty and investment, through the positive effect of higher uncertainty on the trigger level for revenue relative to costs. An opposing effect on the probability of reaching the level has been identified, yielding a total effect with ambiguous sign. This paper makes three points. The “opposing” effect is not always opposing. Systematic risk cannot generally be assumed to increase with volatility. A probability is not the best measure of investment. The sign of the total effect is again ambiguous. This ambiguity is illustrated, depending on specification of model and parameters.
|Date of creation:||Nov 2003|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Øster Farimagsgade 5, Building 26, DK-1353 Copenhagen K., Denmark|
Phone: (+45) 3532 4411
Fax: +45 35 32 30 00
Web page: http://www.econ.ku.dk/epru/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Pindyck, Robert S., 1990.
"Irreversibility, uncertainty, and investment,"
3137-90., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Metcalf, Gilbert E. & Hassett, Kevin A., 1995.
"Investment under alternative return assumptions Comparing random walks and mean reversion,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 19(8), pages 1471-1488, November.
- Gilbert E. Metcalf & Kevin A. Hassett, 1995. "Investment Under Alternative Return Assumptions: Comparing Random Walks and Mean Reversion," NBER Technical Working Papers 0175, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- McDonald, Robert & Siegel, Daniel, 1984. " Option Pricing When the Underlying Asset Earns a Below-Equilibrium Rate of Return: A Note," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(1), pages 261-65, March.
- Nikolaos Milonas & Thomas Henker, 2001. "Price spread and convenience yield behaviour in the international oil market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 23-36.
- Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
- Lund Diderik, 1993. "The Lognormal Diffusion Is Hardly an Equilibrium Price Process for Exhaustible Resources," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 235-241, November.
- Sarkar, Sudipto, 2000. "On the investment-uncertainty relationship in a real options model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 219-225, February.
- Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
- Sarkar, Sudipto, 2003. "The effect of mean reversion on investment under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 377-396, November.
- Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-87, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kud:epruwp:03-17. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Thomas Hoffmann)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.