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Real options approach to renewable energy investments in Mongolia

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  • Detert, Neal
  • Kotani, Koji

Abstract

Developing nations are seeking alternative energy for electricity, and one attractive alternative is renewable energy. This research analyzes changing investment environment for renewable energy with real options approach, and explores its potential in developing economies through studying the case of Mongolia under coal price uncertainty. To evaluate comparative attractiveness of either continuing to use coal-based infrastructures or switching to renewable energy, we formulate social revenue functions for the two environments, assuming that renewable energy has lower external costs, and coal prices follow geometric Brownian motion (GBM) or geometric mean-reverting (GMR) processes. We find the optimal trigger coal prices for switching technologies with some scenarios in electricity price and externality; characterize when renewable energy investments become attractive. In contrast to conventional wisdom, we identify some situations where the value of having more decision opportunities does not exceed that of a now-or-never decision for switching technologies, and welfare losses are incurred. The optimal trigger prices are higher in GBM than in GMR, and our result raises the possible risks for waiting to switch energy. To avoid welfare losses in Mongolia, the government should increase electricity prices or switch to renewable energy earlier, especially when people pay more for the removal of externalities.

Suggested Citation

  • Detert, Neal & Kotani, Koji, 2013. "Real options approach to renewable energy investments in Mongolia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 136-150.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:56:y:2013:i:c:p:136-150
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.12.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Xian, Hui & Colson, Gregory & Mei, Bin & Wetzstein, Michael E., 2015. "Co-firing coal with wood pellets for U.S. electricity generation: A real options analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 106-116.
    2. Wang, Xingwei & Cai, Yanpeng & Dai, Chao, 2014. "Evaluating China's biomass power production investment based on a policy benefit real options model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 751-761.
    3. Shunsuke Managi & Zheng Zhang & Shinya Horie, 2016. "A real options approach to environmental R&D project evaluation," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 18(3), pages 359-394, July.
    4. Xian, Hui & Karali, Berna & Colson, Gregory & Wetzstein, Michael E., 2015. "Diesel or compressed natural gas? A real options evaluation of the U.S. natural gas boom on fuel choice for trucking fleets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 90(P2), pages 1342-1348.
    5. Casper Agaton, 2017. "Coal, Renewable, or Nuclear? A Real Options Approach to Energy Investments in the Philippines," International Journal of Sustainable Energy and Environmental Research, Conscientia Beam, vol. 6(2), pages 50-62, 06-2017.
    6. Maeda, Mansaku & Watts, David, 2019. "The unnoticed impact of long-term cost information on wind farms’ economic value in the USA. – A real option analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 241(C), pages 540-547.
    7. Agaton, Casper, 2017. "Real Options Analysis of Renewable Energy Investment Scenarios in the Philippines," MPRA Paper 83478, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. de Oliveira, Denis Luis & Brandao, Luiz E. & Igrejas, Rafael & Gomes, Leonardo Lima, 2014. "Switching outputs in a bioenergy cogeneration project: A real options approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 74-82.
    9. Yu, Hao & Wei, Yi-Ming & Tang, Bao-Jun & Mi, Zhifu & Pan, Su-Yan, 2016. "Assessment on the research trend of low-carbon energy technology investment: A bibliometric analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 960-970.
    10. Felipe Isaza Cuervo & Sergio Botero Boterob, 2014. "Aplicación de las opciones reales en la toma de decisiones en los mercados de electricidad," Estudios Gerenciales, Universidad Icesi, November.
    11. Sim, Jaehun & Kim, Chae-Soo, 2019. "The value of renewable energy research and development investments with default consideration," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 530-539.
    12. Mei, Bin & Wetzstein, Michael, 2017. "Burning wood pellets for US electricity generation? A regime switching analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 434-441.
    13. Cuervo, Felipe Isaza & Botero, Sergio Botero, 2016. "Wind power reliability valuation in a Hydro-Dominated power market: The Colombian case," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 1359-1372.
    14. Zhang, M.M. & Wang, Qunwei & Zhou, Dequn & Ding, H., 2019. "Evaluating uncertain investment decisions in low-carbon transition toward renewable energy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C), pages 1049-1060.
    15. Andreas Welling, 2017. "Green Finance: Recent developments, characteristics and important actors," FEMM Working Papers 170002, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg, Faculty of Economics and Management.
    16. Herui Cui & Tian Zhao & Ruirui Wu, 2018. "An Investment Feasibility Analysis of CCS Retrofit Based on a Two-Stage Compound Real Options Model," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 11(7), pages 1-19, July.
    17. Zhang, M.M. & Zhou, P. & Zhou, D.Q., 2016. "A real options model for renewable energy investment with application to solar photovoltaic power generation in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 213-226.
    18. Carmen Schiel & Simon Glöser-Chahoud & Frank Schultmann, 2019. "A real option application for emission control measures," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 89(3), pages 291-325, April.
    19. Mingming Zhang & Dequn Zhou & Hao Ding & Jingliang Jin, 2016. "Biomass Power Generation Investment in China: A Real Options Evaluation," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(6), pages 1-22, June.
    20. Zhang, M.M. & Zhou, D.Q. & Zhou, P. & Chen, H.T., 2017. "Optimal design of subsidy to stimulate renewable energy investments: The case of China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 873-883.
    21. Das Gupta, Supratim, 2018. "Using real options to study the impact of capacity additions and investment expenditures in renewable energies in India," MPRA Paper 90441, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Kozlova, Mariia, 2017. "Real option valuation in renewable energy literature: Research focus, trends and design," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 180-196.
    23. Kim, Kyeongseok & Park, Hyoungbae & Kim, Hyoungkwan, 2017. "Real options analysis for renewable energy investment decisions in developing countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 918-926.
    24. Alejandro Mosiño & Alejandro Tatsuo Moreno-Okuno, 2018. "On modeling fossil fuel prices: geometric Brownian motion vs. variance-gamma process," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(1), pages 509-519.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Renewable energy investment; Real options in discrete time; Coal prices;

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q32 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources

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