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Irreversibility, mean reversion, and investment timing

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  • Wong, Kit Pong
  • Yi, Long

Abstract

This paper examines the effect of irreversibility on investment under mean reversion. We develop a continuous-time model wherein a risk-neutral firm is endowed with a perpetual option to invest in a project at any time by incurring a fixed investment cost at that instant. The project, once undertaken, generates a stream of cash flows that are governed by a mean-reverting stochastic process. The firm is then allowed to liquidate its project at any time to partially recover the fixed investment cost. The recovery rate of the fixed investment cost inversely gauges the degree of irreversibility of investment. Using a real options approach, we derive an analytical solution to the value of the firm that is analogous with an American compound option. We show that greater irreversibility of investment induces the firm to raise its investment trigger, thereby deferring the undertaking of the project. We further show that greater irreversibility of investment has a detrimental effect that makes the firm less valuable.

Suggested Citation

  • Wong, Kit Pong & Yi, Long, 2013. "Irreversibility, mean reversion, and investment timing," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 770-775.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:30:y:2013:i:c:p:770-775
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2012.10.007
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Jung Ho Park & Kwangsoo Shin, 2018. "R&D Project Valuation Considering Changes of Economic Environment: A Case of a Pharmaceutical R&D Project," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-15, March.
    4. Sarkar, Sudipto, 2015. "Price limits and corporate investment: The consumers' perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 168-178.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Investment timing; Irreversibility; Mean reversion; Real options;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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