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Feedback effects of credit ratings

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  • Manso, Gustavo

Abstract

Rating agencies are often criticized for being biased in favor of borrowers, for being too slow to downgrade following credit quality deterioration, and for being oligopolists. Based on a model that takes into account the feedback effects of credit ratings, I show that: (i) rating agencies should focus not only on the accuracy of their ratings but also on the effects of their ratings on the probability of survival of the borrower; (ii) even when rating agencies pursue an accurate rating policy, multi-notch downgrades or immediate default may occur in response to small shocks to fundamentals; (iii) increased competition between rating agencies can lead to rating downgrades, increasing default frequency and reducing welfare.

Suggested Citation

  • Manso, Gustavo, 2013. "Feedback effects of credit ratings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 535-548.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:109:y:2013:i:2:p:535-548
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2013.03.007
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    Cited by:

    1. Kun Mo & Farrukh Suvankulov & Sophie Griffiths, 2019. "Financial Distress and Hedging: Evidence from Canadian Oil Firms," Discussion Papers 2019-4, Bank of Canada.
    2. El-Shagi, Makram & Schweinitz, Gregor von, 2018. "The joint dynamics of sovereign ratings and government bond yields," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 198-218.
    3. José Jorge, 2016. "Sovereign Ratings and Investor Behavior," CEF.UP Working Papers 1601, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    4. Ozerturk, Saltuk, 2014. "Upfront versus rating contingent fees: Implications for rating quality," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 91-103.
    5. Yun Wang & Yilan Xu, 2015. "Race to the Top: Credit Rating Bias from Competition," Working Papers 2015-05-12, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University, revised 10 Jul 2015.
    6. Marta Allegra Ronchetti, 2018. "What if I knew you did it? An analysis of preliminary ratings’ disclosure under competition," Discussion Papers 2018/09, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    7. Yao, Zhiyong & Gu, Dingwei & Chen, Yongmin, 2017. "Rating deflation versus inflation: On procyclical credit ratings," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 46-64.
    8. repec:sgm:resrep:v:2:i:22:y:2016:p:48-59 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:oup:rfinst:v:30:y:2017:i:9:p:3223-3268. is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Hugonnier, Julien & Malamud, Semyon & Morellec, Erwan, 2015. "Credit market frictions and capital structure dynamics," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 1130-1158.
    11. Valentina Bruno & Jess Cornaggia & Kimberly J. Cornaggia, 2016. "Does Regulatory Certification Affect the Information Content of Credit Ratings?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(6), pages 1578-1597, June.
    12. Hirth, Stefan, 2014. "Credit rating dynamics and competition," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 100-112.
    13. Cornaggia, Jess & Cornaggia, Kimberly J. & Xia, Han, 2016. "Revolving doors on Wall Street," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 400-419.
    14. Kraft, Pepa, 2015. "Do rating agencies cater? Evidence from rating-based contracts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 264-283.
    15. Ormazabal, Gaizka, 2018. "The Role of Stakeholders in Corporate Governance: A View from Accounting Research," CEPR Discussion Papers 12775, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    17. Marc Goergen & Dimitrios Gounopoulos & Panagiotis Koutroumpis, 2019. "Do Multiple Credit Ratings Reduce Money Left on the Table? Evidence from US. IPOs," Working Papers 884, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    18. repec:bla:abacus:v:53:y:2017:i:1:p:59-93 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Ozerturk, Saltuk, 2014. "Ratings as regulatory stamps," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 17-29.
    20. repec:kap:rqfnac:v:51:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s11156-017-0666-5 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Manuel Adelino & Igor Cunha & Miguel A. Ferreira, 2017. "The Economic Effects of Public Financing: Evidence from Municipal Bond Ratings Recalibration," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(9), pages 3223-3268.
    22. Alsakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain & Vu, Tuyet Nhung, 2014. "The sovereign-bank rating channel and rating agencies' downgrades during the European debt crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PB), pages 235-257.
    23. Goel, Anand M. & Thakor, Anjan V., 2015. "Information reliability and welfare: A theory of coarse credit ratings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 541-557.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit rating agencies; Performance-sensitive debt; Financial regulation; Credit-cliff dynamic;

    JEL classification:

    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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