On the Investment-Uncertainty Relationship: A Game Theoretic Real Option Approach
This paper examines the effect of uncertainty on investment timing in a game theoretical real option model. We extend the settings of Gryglewicz et al. (2008), Wong (2007), and Sarkar (2000) by a more general assumption, i.e. the investment is also influenced by the actions of a second player. The results show that a U-shaped investment-uncertainty relationship generally sustains. However, timing of an investment occurs inefficiently late. Moreover, we show that the influence of uncertainty on the associated first-mover advantage becomes ambiguous, too.
|Date of creation:||Nov 2012|
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- Diderik Lund, 2003.
"How to analyze the investment–uncertainty relationship in real option models?,"
EPRU Working Paper Series
03-17, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
- Lund, Diderik, 2005. "How to analyze the investment-uncertainty relationship in real option models?," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3-4), pages 311-322.
- Dirk Hackbarth & Erwan Morellec, 2006.
"Stock Returns in Mergers and Acquisitions,"
Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series
06-01, Swiss Finance Institute.
- Cvitanic, Jaksa & Radas, Sonja & Sikic, Hrvoje, 2011. "Co-development ventures: Optimal time of entry and profit-sharing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 1710-1730, October.
- Wong, Kit Pong, 2007. "The effect of uncertainty on investment timing in a real options model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 2152-2167, July.
- Sarkar, Sudipto, 2000. "On the investment-uncertainty relationship in a real options model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 219-225, February.
- Lee, Tan, 2004. "Determinants of the foreign equity share of international joint ventures," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2261-2275, October.
- Gryglewicz, S. & Huisman, K.J.M. & Kort, P.M., 2006.
"Finite Project Life and Uncertainty Effects on Investment,"
2006-124, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Gryglewicz, Sebastian & Huisman, Kuno J.M. & Kort, Peter M., 2008. "Finite project life and uncertainty effects on investment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 2191-2213, July.
- Lukas, Elmar & Welling, Andreas, 2012. "Negotiating M&As under uncertainty: The influence of managerial flexibility on the first-mover advantage," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 29-35.
- Robert C. Merton, 1973. "Theory of Rational Option Pricing," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 4(1), pages 141-183, Spring.
- Morellec, Erwan & Zhdanov, Alexei, 2005. "The dynamics of mergers and acquisitions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(3), pages 649-672, September.
- Kort, Peter M. & Murto, Pauli & Pawlina, Grzegorz, 2010. "Uncertainty and stepwise investment," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 196-203, April.
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