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On the investment–uncertainty relationship: A game theoretic real option approach

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  • Lukas, Elmar
  • Welling, Andreas

Abstract

This paper examines the effect of uncertainty on investment timing in a game theoretic real option model. We extend the settings of the related recent literature on investment timing under uncertainty by a more general assumption, i.e. the investment is also influenced by the actions of a second player. The results show that a U-shaped investment–uncertainty relationship generally sustains even for infinite-lived investment projects and proper defined cash flows. However, timing of an investment occurs inefficiently late. Moreover, we show that the influence of uncertainty on the associated first-mover advantage becomes ambiguous, too.

Suggested Citation

  • Lukas, Elmar & Welling, Andreas, 2014. "On the investment–uncertainty relationship: A game theoretic real option approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 25-35.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:11:y:2014:i:1:p:25-35
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2013.07.006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hackbarth, Dirk & Miao, Jianjun, 2012. "The dynamics of mergers and acquisitions in oligopolistic industries," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 585-609.
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    4. Lund, Diderik, 2005. "How to analyze the investment-uncertainty relationship in real option models?," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3-4), pages 311-322.
    5. Lukas, Elmar & Welling, Andreas, 2012. "Negotiating M&As under uncertainty: The influence of managerial flexibility on the first-mover advantage," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 29-35.
    6. Sarkar, Sudipto, 2000. "On the investment-uncertainty relationship in a real options model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 219-225, February.
    7. Morellec, Erwan & Zhdanov, Alexei, 2005. "The dynamics of mergers and acquisitions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(3), pages 649-672, September.
    8. Gryglewicz, Sebastian & Huisman, Kuno J.M. & Kort, Peter M., 2008. "Finite project life and uncertainty effects on investment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 2191-2213, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Cole, John A. & Cadogan, Godfrey, 2014. "Bankruptcy risk induced by career concerns of regulators," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 259-271.
    2. Andreas Welling, 2017. "Optimal Carbon Tax Scheme under Uncertainty in an Oligopolistic Market of Polluters," FEMM Working Papers 170001, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg, Faculty of Economics and Management.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real option; Investment; Uncertainty; Managerial flexibility; Game theory;

    JEL classification:

    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • C70 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - General
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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