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Finite project life and uncertainty effects on investment

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  • Gryglewicz, Sebastian
  • Huisman, Kuno J.M.
  • Kort, Peter M.

Abstract

This paper revisits the important result of the real options approach to investment under uncertainty, which states that increased uncertainty raises the value of waiting and thus decelerates investment. Typically in this literature projects are assumed to be perpetual. However, in today's economy firms face a fast-changing technology environment, implying that investment projects are usually considered to have a finite life. The present paper studies investment projects with finite project life, and we find that, in contrast with the existing theory, investments may be accelerated by increased uncertainty. It is shown that this particularly happens at low levels of uncertainty and when project life is short.

Suggested Citation

  • Gryglewicz, Sebastian & Huisman, Kuno J.M. & Kort, Peter M., 2008. "Finite project life and uncertainty effects on investment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 2191-2213, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:32:y:2008:i:7:p:2191-2213
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    Cited by:

    1. Shibata, Takashi, 2009. "Investment timing, asymmetric information, and audit structure: A real options framework," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 903-921, April.
    2. Shibata, Takashi & Nishihara, Michi, 2010. "Dynamic investment and capital structure under manager-shareholder conflict," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 158-178, February.
    3. Thijssen, Jacco J.J., 2011. "Incomplete markets, ambiguity, and irreversible investment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 909-921, June.
    4. Fouilloux, Jessica & Moraux, Franck & Viviani, Jean-Laurent, 2015. "Investing in finite-life carbon emissions reduction program under risk and idiosyncratic uncertainty," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 310-320.
    5. Ni, Shawn & Ratti, Ronald A., 2009. "Heterogeneous parameter uncertainty and the timing of investment during crisis," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 3, pages 1-22.
    6. Baresa, Suzana & Bogdan, Sinisa & Ivanovic, Zoran, 2016. "Capital Investments And Financial Profitability," UTMS Journal of Economics, University of Tourism and Management, Skopje, Macedonia, vol. 7(1), pages 49-59.
    7. Dandan Song & Zhaojun Yang, 2014. "Utility-Based Pricing, Timing and Hedging of an American Call Option Under an Incomplete Market with Partial Information," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 44(1), pages 1-26, June.
    8. Lukas, Elmar & Welling, Andreas, 2014. "On the investment–uncertainty relationship: A game theoretic real option approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 25-35.
    9. repec:eee:proeco:v:193:y:2017:i:c:p:491-501 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Djembissi, Bertrand, 2011. "Excessive risk taking and the maturity structure of debt," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 1800-1816, October.
    11. Whalley, A. Elizabeth, 2011. "Optimal R&D investment for a risk-averse entrepreneur," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 413-429, April.
    12. Elmar Lukas & Andreas Welling, 2012. "On the Investment-Uncertainty Relationship: A Game Theoretic Real Option Approach," FEMM Working Papers 120030, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg, Faculty of Economics and Management.
    13. Huisman, Kuno & Thijssen, J.J.J., 2018. "On the Option Effects of Short-Time Work Arrangements," Discussion Paper 2018-004, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D92 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice, Investment, Capacity, and Financing
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies

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