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Exit in Duopoly Under Uncertainty

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  • Pauli Murto

    () (Helsinki School of Economics)

Abstract

I examine a declining duopoly in which the firms must choose when to exit from the market. The uncertainty is modelled by letting the revenue stream follow a geometric Brownian motion. I consider the Markov-perfect equilibrium in firms' exit strategies. With a low degree of uncertainty there is a unique equilibrium, where one of the firms always exits before the other. When uncertainty is increased, however, another equilibrium with the reversed order of exit may appear, ruining the uniqueness. Whether this happens or not depends on the degree of asymmetry in the firm-specific parameters.

Suggested Citation

  • Pauli Murto, 2004. "Exit in Duopoly Under Uncertainty," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 35(1), pages 111-127, Spring.
  • Handle: RePEc:rje:randje:v:35:y:2004:1:p:111-127
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    Cited by:

    1. Kuno J.M. Huisman & Peter M. Kort, 2015. "Strategic capacity investment under uncertainty," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 46(2), pages 376-408, June.
    2. Jan-Henrik Steg & Jacco Thijssen, 2015. "Quick or Persistent? Strategic Investment Demanding Versatility," Papers 1506.04698, arXiv.org.
    3. Nishihara, Michi & Shibata, Takashi, 2014. "Preemption, leverage, and financing constraints," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 75-89.
    4. Ruiz-Aliseda, Francisco, 2016. "Preemptive investments under uncertainty, credibility and first mover advantages," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 123-137.
    5. Boyarchenko Svetlana & Levendorskii Sergei Z, 2006. "General Option Exercise Rules, with Applications to Embedded Options and Monopolistic Expansion," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-51, June.
    6. Siddiqui, Afzal & Takashima, Ryuta, 2012. "Capacity switching options under rivalry and uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 222(3), pages 583-595.
    7. Bayer, Christian, 2007. "Investment timing and predatory behavior in a duopoly with endogenous exit," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 3069-3109, September.
    8. Arthur Zillante, 2005. "Survival in a Declining Industry: The Case of Baseball Cards," Industrial Organization 0505004, EconWPA.
    9. Wang, Xunxiao & Wu, Chongfeng & Xu, Weidong, 2015. "When to buy or sell in supply chains with the presence of mergers," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 137-145.
    10. Chevalier-Roignant, Benoît & Flath, Christoph M. & Huchzermeier, Arnd & Trigeorgis, Lenos, 2011. "Strategic investment under uncertainty: A synthesis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 215(3), pages 639-650, December.
    11. Kamoto, Shinsuke, 2015. "Strategic capacity expansion under a potential entry threat," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 157-177.
    12. Azevedo, Alcino & Paxson, Dean, 2014. "Developing real option game models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 237(3), pages 909-920.
    13. Gryglewicz, Sebastian & Huisman, Kuno J.M. & Kort, Peter M., 2008. "Finite project life and uncertainty effects on investment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 2191-2213, July.
    14. Moon, Yongma & Yao, Tao & Park, Sungsoon, 2011. "Price negotiation under uncertainty," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(2), pages 413-423, December.
    15. Thijssen, Jacco J.J., 2008. "Optimal and strategic timing of mergers and acquisitions motivated by synergies and risk diversification," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1701-1720, May.
    16. Jacco Thijssen, 2007. "Ramsey Waits: A Theory of Non-Exclusive Real Options with First-Mover Advantages," Discussion Papers 07/17, Department of Economics, University of York.
    17. Nishihara, Michi, 2014. "Preemptive investment game with alternative projects," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 124-135.
    18. Jan-Henrik Steg, 2015. "Symmetric Equilibria in Stochastic Timing Games," Papers 1507.04797, arXiv.org.
    19. Andrew Eckert & Heather Eckert, 2014. "Regional Patterns in Gasoline Station Rationalization in Canada," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 99-122, March.
    20. repec:oup:rcorpf:v:6:y:2017:i:2:p:174-233. is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Lavrutich, Maria N., 2017. "Capacity choice under uncertainty in a duopoly with endogenous exit," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 258(3), pages 1033-1053.
    22. Christian Bayer, 2004. "The Other Side of Limited Liability: Predatory Behavior and Investment Timing," Industrial Organization 0407001, EconWPA.
    23. Li, X. & Zuidwijk, R.A. & de Koster, M.B.M. & Dekker, R., 2016. "Competitive Capacity Investment under Uncertainty," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2016-005-LIS, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    24. Stefan Kersting & JProf. Silke Huettel & Prof. Martin Odening, 2013. "Structural change in agriculture – an equilibrium approach," EcoMod2013 5300, EcoMod.

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