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Heterogeneous Parameter Uncertainty and the Timing of Investment during Crisis

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  • Ni, Shawn
  • Ratti, Ronald A.

Abstract

We present a model in which investors observe the same macroeconomic data but have varying levels of information about the parameters that determine the distribution of the expected returns on investment. During a crisis that increases macroeconomic uncertainty and reduces asset prices, the threshold required return that triggers investment is lower for an informed investor than for an uninformed investor. Simulation of the model suggests that when macroeconomic uncertainty is high investment may increase, is mostly by informed investors, and as time goes on is progressively more by investors who were initially relatively uninformed about model parameters. For over 10,000 instances of firm-level FDI data for Korea from 1996 to 2001, regression results are consistent with the hypothesis that disproportionably more FDI is made by more informed investors during a period of high macroeconomic uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Ni, Shawn & Ratti, Ronald A., 2009. "Heterogeneous Parameter Uncertainty and the Timing of Investment during Crisis," Economics Discussion Papers 2009-12, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:7491
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    Cited by:

    1. David Meenagh & Patrick Minford, 2012. "Non Stationary Shocks, Crises and Policy," Rivista italiana degli economisti, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 2, pages 191-224.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Parameter uncertainty; investor information; option value; Bayesian updating; FDI;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty

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