The effect of exchange rate risk on US foreign direct investment: an empirical analysis
This paper empirically analyzes the impact of exchange rate uncertainty, exchange rate movements and expectations on foreign direct investment (FDI). Two competing specifications of exchange rate volatility are examined. The investigation is based on a cross-section time-series data set of U.S. outward FDI by industries to six major partner countries for the period 1984-2004. Using the standard deviation of the real exchange rate as a measure of risk it is found that exchange rate uncertainty has a discouraging effect on FDI flows across all industries. This is contrasted when applying an alternative risk specification defined as the unexplained part of real exchange rate volatility. Now, results show a clear distinction between non-manufacturing and manufacturing industries. U.S. FDI outflows in nonmanufacturing industries exhibit a positive correlation with increased exchange risk, whereas this relationship is negative for manufacturing industries in the underlying sample. A real appreciation of host-country currency was associated with higher FDI flows, while expectations about an appreciation showed a negative result.
|Date of creation:||2008|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 01062 Dresden|
Phone: ++49 351 463 2196
Fax: ++49 351 463 7739
Web page: https://tu-dresden.de/gsw/wirtschaft/?set_language=en
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Engel, C. & Rogers, J.H., 1995.
"How Wide is the Border?,"
4-95-16, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
- Charles Engel & John H. Rogers, 1995. "How wide is the border?," International Finance Discussion Papers 498, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Charles Engel & John H. Rogers, 1995. "How wide is the border?," Research Working Paper 95-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Charles Engel & John H. Rogers, 1994. "How Wide is the Border?," NBER Working Papers 4829, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gorg, Holger & Wakelin, Katherine, 2002. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on US Direct Investment," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 70(3), pages 380-397, June.
- Takao Itagaki, 1981. "The Theory of the Multinational Firm under Exchange Rate Uncertainty," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 14(2), pages 276-297, May.
- Pietra Rivoli & Eugene Salorio, 1996. "Foreign Direct Investment and Investment under Uncertainty," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 27(2), pages 335-357, June.
- Kenneth A. Froot & Jeremy C. Stein, 1991. "Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment: An Imperfect Capital Markets Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(4), pages 1191-1217.
- Georges de Ménil, 1999. "Real capital market integration in the EU: How far has it gone? What will the effect of the euro be?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 14(28), pages 165-201, 04.
- Michael W. Klein & Eric Rosengren, 1992.
"The Real Exchange Rate and Foreign Direct Investment in the United States: Relative Wealth vs. Relative Wage Effects,"
NBER Working Papers
4192, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Klein, Michael W. & Rosengren, Eric, 1994. "The real exchange rate and foreign direct investment in the United States : Relative wealth vs. relative wage effects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3-4), pages 373-389, May.
- Michael W. Klein & Eric S. Rosengren, 1992. "The real exchange rate and foreign direct investment in the United States: relative wealth vs. relative wage effects," Working Papers 92-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Hooper, Peter & Kohlhagen, Steven W., 1978. "The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the prices and volume of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 483-511, November.
- Cushman, David O, 1985. "Real Exchange Rate Risk, Expectations, and the Level of Direct Investment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(2), pages 297-308, May.
- Benassy-Quere, AgnEs & Fontagne, Lionel & LahrEche-Revil, Amina, 2001. "Exchange-Rate Strategies in the Competition for Attracting Foreign Direct Investment," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 178-198, June.
- Campa, Joe Manuel, 1993. "Entry by Foreign Firms in the United States under Exchange Rate Uncertainty," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 614-622, November.
- Broll, Udo & Zilcha, Itzhak, 1991.
"Exchange rate uncertainty, futures markets and the multinational firm,"
Discussion Papers, Series II
139, University of Konstanz, Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 178 "Internationalization of the Economy".
- Broll, Udo & Zilcha, Itzhak, 1992. "Exchange rate uncertainty, futures markets and the multinational firm," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 815-826, May.
- Aizenman, Joshua & Marion, Nancy, 2004.
"The merits of horizontal versus vertical FDI in the presence of uncertainty,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 125-148, January.
- Joshua Aizenman & Nancy Marion, 2001. "The Merits of Horizontal versus Vertical FDI in the Presence of Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 8631, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Chowdhury, Abdur R, 1993. "Does Exchange Rate Volatility Depress Trade Flows? Evidence from Error-Correction Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 700-706, November.
- Avinash Dixit, 1989. "Hysteresis, Import Penetration, and Exchange Rate Pass-Through," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 104(2), pages 205-228.
- Nigel Pain & Desirée Van Welsum, 2003. "Untying The Gordian Knot: The Multiple Links Between Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(5), pages 823-846, December.
- Broll, Udo F, 1992. "The Effect of Forward Markets on Multinational Firms," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(3), pages 233-240, July.
- Capel, Jeannette, 1992. "How to service a foreign market under uncertainty: A real option approach," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 455-475, October.
- Lucrezia Reichlin, 1999. "Real capital market integration in the EU: how far has it gone? What will the effect of the euro be? discussion," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10203, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Pozo, Susan, 1992. "Conditional Exchange-Rate Volatility and the Volume of International Trade: Evidence from the Early 1900s," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(2), pages 325-329, May.
- Sebastian Edwards, 2000. "Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number edwa00-1, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:tuddps:0908. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.